Kotak Mahindra Bank Q4 earnings preview: Brokerages see steady NII growth, muted profit expansion

Private sector lender Kotak Mahindra Bank is expected to remain in focus on Saturday, 2 May, as the company is scheduled to announce its financial performance for the March quarter and the fiscal year ended 31 March.

Brokerages remain broadly positive on Kotak Mahindra Bank’s March quarter performance, expecting steady growth in core income and operating profitability, though net profit is likely to remain largely subdued due to margin pressure and modest treasury gains.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Q4 results preview

According to ICICI Securities, the private lender is expected to report net interest income (NII) of ₹7,893 crore for Q4FY26, reflecting a 4.4% sequential rise and an 8.4% year-on-year increase.

Pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) is estimated at ₹5,606 crore, up 4.2% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% YoY, while profit after tax (PAT) is likely to come in at ₹3,661.6 crore, registering a 6.2% sequential improvement and a 3.1% annual rise. The brokerage also expects advances to grow 16.3% YoY to ₹4,96,295.9 crore, although net interest margins may compress by 48 basis points on a yearly basis to 4.49%.

Emkay Global Financial Services has pencilled in NII at ₹7,747 crore, implying a 6.4% YoY and 2.4% QoQ increase. It anticipates PPOP at ₹5,671 crore, up 3.6% year-on-year and 5.4% sequentially. However, PAT is projected at ₹3,515.2 crore, indicating a marginal 1% decline from the year-ago period, though still 2% higher on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

"Weak treasury performance could keep earnings under pressure and lower unsecured retail stress to drive down slippages," said Emkay.

Meanwhile, Axis Securities expects Kotak Mahindra Bank to post NII of ₹7,798 crore, up 7.1% YoY and 3.1% sequentially. Pre-provision operating profit is estimated at ₹5,712 crore, rising 4.4% annually and 6.2% over the December quarter. It estimates provisions to decline 11.2% year-on-year to ₹808 crore and net profit at 3,698 crore, a growth of 4.1% YoY and 7.3% QoQ.

Another domestic brokerage firm, Motilal Oswal, is relatively conservative on the lender’s bottom line and expects NII at ₹7,759.5 crore, marking a 6.5% YoY rise and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter growth.

Operating profit is seen at ₹5,477 crore, almost flat with just 0.1% annual growth, while net profit is estimated at ₹3,533.8 crore, reflecting a marginal 0.5% decline year-on-year but a 2.5% increase sequentially.

It expects loan and deposit growth of 3.7% and 4% QoQ, projecting loan growth led by corp and secured retail and slower growth in the unsecured segment.

Kotak Mahindra Bank share price rebounds 8% in April

The shares have rebounded in April, gaining 8% so far and recovering part of the sharp 15% losses registered in March. To be precise, the stock failed to sustain its early-2025 rally, having begun the year with a 7.32% gain before the sell-off extended further in the following months.

Despite the late recovery, the stock remains down 13% on a year-to-date basis.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.