Key equity indices Nifty 50 and Sensex closed lacklustre on Tuesday, tracking weak global cues, as the US Treasury yields hit a multi-year high and the US dollar rose to a 10-month high level amid concerns over interest rates staying high for an extended period and its impact on the global economy.
As Reuters reported the US 10-year Treasury yields rose as high as 4.566 per cent, to a 16-year peak while the US dollar index inched up 0.2 per cent to 106.2, the highest since November 2022.
In their recent meetings, major central banks of the world, including the US Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) have indicated interest rates will stay high for a longer period.
Concerns have been growing that the US economy, which has managed to avoid a recession this year despite aggressive monetary tightening, could face significant pressure. The possibility of a soft landing for the economy may be jeopardized if the Fed keeps interest rates high for a longer period than expected.
Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference last week said that a "soft landing" for the economy is not the most likely or expected outcome, but it is still considered a possibility.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet on October 4-6 to decide on interest rates and policy stance. The majority of economists expect the RBI will continue to maintain a pause on interest rates.
The domestic market remained sombre throughout the session. The Nifty 50 opened at 19,682.80 against the previous close of 19,674.55 and touched the intraday high and low of 19,699.35 and 19,637.45 respectively.
The Nifty 50 finally closed at 19,664.70, down 10 points, or 0.05 per cent. The Sensex closed 78 points, or 0.12 per cent, lower at 65,945.47.
Shares of select banking and IT heavyweights, including ICICI Bank, Infosys, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank, ended as the top drags on the Sensex index.
The BSE Midcap index also ended in the red, falling 0.09 per cent but the BSE Smallcap index managed to clock a gain of 0.33 per cent.
Even though the market ended with a negative bias, as many as 169 stocks, including Coal India, Colgate-Palmolive (India), Tata Consumer Products, Trent and Varun Beverages, hit their fresh 52-week highs in intraday trade on BSE.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices eased further on concerns over demand. Brent Crude traded about a per cent lower near the $92.5 per barrel mark around 4 pm. The rupee, on the other hand, fell 9 paise to close at 83.24 per dollar, Bloomberg data showed.
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Shares of Eicher Motors (up 2.61 per cent), Hero MotoCorp (up 2.13 per cent) and Nestle India (up 1.51 per cent) ended as the top gainers in the Nifty 50 index.
Shares of Cipla (down 1.37 per cent), Tech Mahindra (down 1.29 per cent) and IndusInd Bank (down 1.14 per cent) ended as the top losers in the Nifty 50 pack.
Some 27 stocks ended higher in the Nifty pack while the remaining 23 ended lower.
A majority of sectoral indices ended in the red on Tuesday.
Nifty Bank fell 0.32 per cent while the PSU Bank and Private Bank indices fell 0.64 per cent and 0.32 per cent respectively.
The Nifty Media index (down 0.86 per cent) fell the most. Nifty IT ended with a loss of 0.54 per cent.
On the other hand, Nifty FMCG (up 0.52 per cent), Auto (up 0.35 per cent), Metal (up 0.31 per cent), Realty (up 0.31 per cent) and Oil & Gas (up 0.16 per cent) ended with gains.
“Markets witnessed a listless trading session and lingered in negative territory for most part of the trading session due to weak Asian and European cues. Traders resorted to selective profit-taking ahead of the next week's RBI policy outcome, while external factors like strength in the dollar index and rising treasury yields continue to dampen sentiment," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Research (Retail), Kotak Securities.
"Trading remained flat as headwinds from the global market and continued selling by FIIs kept domestic investors under vigil. While bargain hunting was visible in small-cap stocks due to the recent correction and favourable valuation compared to large and mid-caps, IT indices slid due to the fear of one more rate hike by the Fed and a consequent reduction in spending," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
Chouhan said the Nifty has formed an inside body candle indicating the continuation of a rangebound trend in the near future.
"For day traders, 19,735 would be the immediate resistance level while 19,620 could act as a key support zone. Above 18,735, the index could move up to 19,780-19,800. On the other hand, below 19,620, the market could slip to 19,550-19,520,” said Chouhan.
Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities pointed out that the short-term sentiment remains bearish as Nifty closed below the 21EMA.
"Looking ahead, the trend is expected to stay bearish as long as Nifty remains below 19,750. A support level is at 19,600, below which the index may decline further towards 19,250," said De.
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