Maruti Suzuki share price jumps 35% in FY26 so far. Is it still a stock to buy?

Maruti Suzuki share price has been on a roll in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26) on a confluence of factors, including tax reforms, healthy monsoon, benign inflation, and buzz around the 8th Pay Commission.

Shares of Maruti Suzuki have surged over 35 per cent in FY26 so far. On a monthly scale, the auto stock has been in the green since April this year. In September so far, the stocks has gained over 5 per cent. On Tuesday, September 16, the auto stock hit a fresh record high of ₹15,598.30 on the BSE, but closed at ₹15,566.95, up 2 per cent.

Is it the right time to buy Maruti Suzuki stock?

Maruti could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the recent GST reforms, which lowered the tax rate on small cars from 28 per cent to 18 per cent.

The company's solid balance sheet, market dominance in the segment and India's attractive growth-inflation dynamics are expected to augur well for Maruti.

"Maruti Suzuki is set to emerge as the biggest beneficiary of GST 2.0, as the GST rate on the small car segment has been reduced to 18 per cent from earlier 28 per cent. Maruti Suzuki is a dominant player in the entry-level and compact passenger vehicle segment with nearly 67 per cent market share in FY25," Nitin Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, said.

Jain expects demand to strengthen further due to recent policy measures, such as tweaks in personal income tax slabs, interest rate cuts, and the upcoming Pay Commission revision, which is expected to revise the salaries, pensions, etc., of central government employees.

Moreover, Maruti unveiled its mid-size SUV Victoris, boosting its presence further in the high-growth mid-size SUV segment. All these factors are expected to make entry-level cars more affordable and stimulate demand, said Jain.

Brokerage firm JM Financial has maintained a buy call on Maruti Suzuki stock and raised the target price to ₹18,050 from ₹14,250 earlier after the company launched the Victoris SUV.

"The launch of the Victoris marks a significant shift in Maruti Suzuki’s strategy -

moving decisively toward safety-first engineering and premium feature offerings, all while maintaining a competitive price point," said JM Financial.

"In our view, the Victoris is well-positioned to gain strong traction in the mid-size SUV segment. Additionally, with the commencement of MSIL’s battery plant, we expect a series of new hybrid launches. The integration of in-house battery production is also likely to support higher margins. Furthermore, India is expected to become a key export hub for Maruti, reinforcing its global ambitions," the brokerage firm added.

JM Financial has revised its volume estimates upward by 4.1 per cent and 8.8 per cent for FY26E and FY27E, respectively.

EBITDA margin estimates have been increased from 11.4 per cent and 12 per cent to 12.1 per cent and 12.8 per cent for FY26E and FY27E, respectively.

"Our EPS estimates have been revised upwards by 9.1 per cent and 17.5 per cent for FY26E and FY27E, respectively. We ascribe a 27 times PE multiple to arrive at a March 2027 fair value of ₹18,050," said JM Financial.

Maruti Suzuki stock: What do technical charts indicate?

Technical experts point out the bullish indicators, suggesting the possibility of more upside, even as the stock appears to be overbought.

According to Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, Maruti is currently trading in the overbought zone on the weekly scale, indicating caution at higher levels.

However, momentum indicators do not show signs of bearish divergence, which suggests that the uptrend may still have room to extend.

"Based on the current setup, the stock could continue its upward move towards the ₹16,000 mark. However, initiating fresh buying at present levels is not advisable due to limited risk–reward potential. Traders holding existing long positions should consider protecting profits by trailing their stop loss at ₹15,200 on a daily closing basis, ensuring risk is managed in case of reversal," said Patel.

KKunal V Parar, VP of technical research and Algo at Choice Broking, pointed out that on the daily chart, the stock has been trading in uncharted territory with above-average volumes, indicating the potential for further upside. Additionally, the stock is moving within an upward rising channel formation, which reflects a continued northward trend.

On the weekly chart, the stock has broken out above the upper band of a rising wedge formation — a rare occurrence that further strengthens the bullish outlook. It has also been consistently taking support at its 100-week moving average, confirming the ongoing positive momentum, Parar said.

The weekly RSI is positioned at 79.80, reaching this level after a long time and suggesting the possibility of sustained strength.

"Based on the above technical structure, we expect the counter to move further upward towards the levels of ₹16,305–17,520. Maintain a strict stop loss placed at ₹14,600," said Parar.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.