Mild recovery in India bonds; key debt auction to decide next direction
Indian government bonds showed slight recovery after a significant selloff due to rising oil prices, with the benchmark 10-year bond yield at 6.2963%. The market's direction depends on demand at a scheduled debt auction of 270 billion rupees. Concerns over inflation from higher oil costs persist, influencing investor sentiment and monetary policy outlook.
By Dharamraj Dhutia
MUMBAI, June 20 (Reuters) - Indian government bonds recovered slightly in early deals on Friday following a massive selloff in the previous session on concerns about rising oil prices, with the bonds' next move dependent on the demand at the weekly debt auction.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was at 6.2963% as of 10:00 a.m. IST, compared with the previous close of 6.3095%. The five-year 6.75% 2029 bond was at 5.9924% after ending at 6.0236% on Thursday.
New Delhi will sell bonds worth 270 billion rupees ($3.12 billion), which includes 150 billion rupees of the 2029 bond. The yield on this paper has risen 20 basis points in the last two weeks.
"So far, volumes are too shallow to judge whether the move will sustain through the day," said a trader with a private bank.
Bond yields jumped sharply in the previous session as worries that oil prices will further spike have kept investors on edge.
Yields move inversely to prices.
The benchmark Brent crude was around $77 per barrel during Asia hours on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict continued, while uncertainty about potential U.S. involvement encouraged caution among investors.
India imports a bulk of its crude oil needs, and higher prices could impact its inflation outlook.
Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India reduced its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 3.7%, while cutting its key lending rate by a steeper-than-expected 50 basis points.
It, however, reverted to a "neutral" stance from "accommodative", prompting analysts to forecast the end of the monetary easing cycle. The minutes of this meeting are due after market hours on Friday.
RATES
Indian overnight index swap (OIS) rates eased after witnessing paying pressure in the previous session.
The one-year OIS rate and the two-year OIS rate were at 5.51% each, while the liquid five-year was 2 bps down at 5.73% ($1 = 86.5850 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair)
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