Nifty 50 hits a fresh record high: Can it touch 24,000 before the Union Budget 2024?

The medium-term outlook for the Indian stock market is bright, supported by solid macro indicators, hopes of reforms, policy continuity, and expectations of an above-normal monsoon season. However, the lack of a fresh trigger for the near term has kept the market benchmarks in a range over the last few sessions.

Nifty 50 has been hitting fresh record highs this week but has found holding gains at higher levels difficult. In the last three sessions, the index has clocked mild gains.

Nevertheless, for June so far, Nifty 50 is up about 4 per cent. Indian stock market benchmark Nifty 50 hit a fresh record high of 23,481.05 in morning trade on Thursday, June 13.

Market awaits Budget

With elections over and the government formation done, the market is focused on policy announcements and the upcoming Budget.

"We think markets will largely remain positive till the Budget. The next big trigger for our markets is the Budget, and we do not expect any negative surprises. We continue to see the government focus on public spending, and some focus on the rural economy could also be seen," said Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research - Investment Services, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

Experts expect the government to maintain fiscal prudence and tighten its grip on populist measures to ensure a healthy growth outlook for India. The hope is high that the capex-led projects will continue even though there could be targeted welfare measures.

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"The government should continue to support capex-led projects, infrastructure improvements, and targeted welfare measures. Given the global slowdown and geopolitical risks, private consumption growth may not significantly improve," Priti Goel, Founder and CEO of Prisha Wealth Management, told Mint while discussing her expectations about the Budget.

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Brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities (Kotak Securities Limited) also expects the government to remain fiscally prudent and not over-populist.

"All solutions to electoral losses need not be translated into populism and away from a macro framework built over the last decade. We expect the government to remain fiscally prudent and populism to be used opportunistically," Kotak said.

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Shrey Jain, founder and CEO of SAS Online, believes that in the near term, the market's attention will turn to the government's policy announcements in the first 100 days and the forthcoming Union Budget.

"We believe that the Indian economy has charted an impressive trajectory, maintaining its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy. Both domestic and global sentiments are strong, and we expect this positive trend to continue without any signs of reversal," said Jain.

Can Nifty 50 hit 24k before the Budget?

Nifty 50 is inching towards the 23,500 mark, so the coveted 24,000 mark is not very far. Some experts see the possibility for the index to hit this level before the Budget as expectations remain strong that the government will announce measures to boost infrastructure, manufacturing and schemes oriented to boost growth.

Even though market dynamics can be unpredictable, Trivesh D., Chief Operating Officer at Tradejini, believes the Nifty 50 may hit the 24,000 mark before the Union Budget 2024.

"With the NDA coalition emerging victorious, Nifty 50 will probably reach the 24,000 mark before the Union Budget 2024. I foresee this outcome being driven by the positive sentiment from the election results, which typically translates into heightened investor confidence," said Trivesh.

"The anticipated continuity in economic policies under the incumbent government further fuels this optimism. As such, investors should strategically position their portfolios to capitalise on the expected market uptrend, leveraging the opportunities presented by the bullish sentiment," Trivesh said.

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Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5paisa.com, pointed out that the Indian stock market has seen a sharp V-shaped recovery from last week’s low.

Jain believes that although the broader trend remains positive, some consolidation or pullback moves cannot be ruled out before the Union Budget as the momentum readings on lower timeframe charts are overbought.

"The support base for Nifty has shifted to 23,000; hence, it would be prudent to keep a buy-on-dip approach. As the trend continues, the recent correction's retracements indicate a probable target around 23,900-24,000, which could be achieved soon," said Jain.

"The Nifty index is approaching 24,000, and we are confident it will reach this milestone before the Union Budget 2024 is announced," said Jain of SAS Online.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.