The Indian stock market benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Monday following gains in global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,795 level, a premium of nearly 170 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity market ended sharply lower, with both the benchmark indices plunging 1.5% each.
The Sensex crashed 1,176.46 points, or 1.49%, to close at 78,041.59, while the Nifty 50 settled 364.20 points, or 1.52%, lower at 23,587.50.
Nifty 50 plunged 4.77% last week and closed below its 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart.
“Nifty 50 index has slipped below the 200 DMA, signalling further weakness in the medium term. The indicators have also turned unfavourable, with the RSI on both daily and weekly charts dipping below the 45 mark, reflecting a loss of upward momentum. The support lies at the previous swing low of 23,263, a critical level that must hold to prevent deeper corrections,” said Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
According to him, the Nifty 50 index appears increasingly fragile, with the 24,200 mark emerging as a key resistance.
“The market may struggle to recover unless this level is reclaimed. Until then, a sell-on-rise strategy remains prudent as volatility and bearish sentiment are expected to dominate the coming sessions. Any short-term relief rally is likely to be short-lived,” Mehra added.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty 24,000-strike call accumulated the highest open interest at 93.22 lakh contracts, highlighting it as a formidable resistance level. On the downside, the 23,000-strike put garnered 82.65 lakh contracts, marking a vital support zone. Heavy call writing between the 23,700 – 24,000 levels reinforce resistance, while diminishing put positions at lower strikes indicate fading bullish sentiment, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
The put-call ratio (PCR) edged up to 0.71 from 0.60, reflecting a bearish undertone. The ‘max pain’ level at 24,000 suggests limited downside risks for the short term, he added.
Nifty 50 closed 1.52% lower at 23,587.50 on December 20, slipping below its 200-day EMA and snapping a four-week winning streak.
“As Nifty 50 slipped below the pivotal zone of 200 SMA, the next potential support could be seen around the recent swing low around 23,200 - 23,100, while a decisive breach is likely to open further downside towards 22,800 in the near period. The formation of a strong Bearish candle on the weekly chart certainly showcases a turnaround move, with bounces to be seen as opportunities to exit longs,” said Osho Krishnan, Sr. Analyst, Technical & Derivatives of - Angel One.
As far as resistance is concerned, 23,800 - 24,000 is likely to be seen as an intermediate hurdle, followed by 24,150 - 24,300, coinciding with the bearish gap and the cluster of EMAs on the daily charts for the upcoming truncated week, he added.
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, the next key support for Nifty 50 is at 23,200, where prices may find some cushioning.
“On the upside, strong resistance lies in the 23,800 - 23,900 zone, and a break above this could drive the index towards 24,300. However, the broader market sentiment remains bearish, with a “sell-on-rise” approach prevailing. Traders should exercise caution, closely monitoring support and resistance levels amid heightened volatility and weak technical signals,” said Singhania.
Bank Nifty index tanked 816.50 points, or 1.58%, to close at 50,759.20 on Friday, forming a large bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe. The index dropped 5.27% last week and formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart.
“Bank Nifty closed below the 21-week EMA near 50,800. Key supports are positioned at 50,200 and 49,800, where prices are likely to stabilize. On the upside, the resistance zone lies at 51,000 - 51,200, with a breakout potentially leading to 51,900,” said Singhania.
According to him, the overall strategy remains bearish, favouring selling near resistance levels as the index struggles to regain upward momentum amidst negative technical signals.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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