Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to see a muted opening on Thursday, tracking mixed cues from global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a weak start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,620 level, a discount of nearly 38 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Wednesday, the domestic equity indices extended fall for the fifth straight session, with the Nifty 50 slipping below 23,600 level.
The Sensex plunged 984.23 points, or 1.25%, to close at 77,690.95, while the Nifty 50 settled 324.40 points, or 1.36%, lower at 23,559.05.
Nifty 50 formed a long bear candle on the daily chart, that has made a new swing low of 23,509 levels.
“This pattern is reflecting sharp selling momentum in the market. Negative chart pattern like lower tops and bottoms is intact and the Nifty 50 is currently placed at the lows to form a new lower bottom of the sequence (lower bottom reversal needs to be confirmed with upside bounce),” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to Shetti, the crucial lower support of 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) has been tested around 23,550 levels on Wednesday and there was no significant upside recovery from near the moving average supports for the day.
“Previously, in last couple of occasions (Oct-23 and June 24), Nifty 50 witnessed significant bottom reversals near the said MA support. The short-term trend of Nifty 50 is sharply down. If the market decisively slides below 23,500 levels, then one may expect the next lower trajectory of around 23,000 levels in the near term,” Shetti said.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
In the derivatives market, Nifty open interest (OI) data revealed the highest call OI at the 24,200 and 24,300 strike prices, while the 23,000 and 22,800 strikes hold the highest put OI, signaling key levels to watch.
Market participants, including both long-term and short-term investors, are advised to accumulate quality stocks at lower levels or consider buying on dips with prudent risk management for potential long-term gains, said Mandar Bhojane, Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
Nifty 50 continued the sharp downside momentum and closed lower by 324 points on November 13.
“Nifty 50 index has slipped sharply due to strong selling by major players. The Nifty has fallen toward its 200-DMA, breaching the support level at 23,800. Immediate support is now at 23,500, and a fall below this level could trigger further correction toward 23,300 – 23,200. On the higher end, resistance is positioned at 23,750,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today noted that the Nifty 50 is trading 10% below its all-time highs, close to its 200-day EMA.
“However, the current momentum suggests the possibility of a further decline of 3-5%. In this situation, I would advise investors to adopt a ‘sell on rise’ strategy. Notably, the RSI has dropped on the daily and weekly charts. However, it remains above 64 on the monthly chart, indicating room for Bears Cartel. Amid these market developments, Nifty can expect support around 23,460 and 23,200, with resistance near 23,850 and 23,940,” Ambala said.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in highlighted that the momentum indicators in the weekly and daily charts are in the oversold region, and a dead cat bounce can be expected from the current levels.
“The index has broken the Head and Shoulder pattern and closed below the neckline, indicating a possible fall, however, can also be a fake breakout. Options writer’s data for the monthly expiry showed a short squeeze in ITM puts of the 24,000 level, which led to the sharp fall in the index once the support at 23,800 broke,’ said Dr. Dwarakanath.
Bank Nifty index cracked 1,069.45 points, or 2.09%, to close at 50,088.35, forming a long bearish candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe.
“Bank Nifty tanking heavily indicated a bearish candle formation on the daily chart to make a low of 49,900 near the 200 period MA. On the downside, the next major support lies at 200 DMA level of 49,700, which needs to be sustained to maintain the overall trend intact. Bank Nifty would have the daily range of 49,500 - 50,700 levels,” said Vaishali Parekh, Vice President - Technical Research at PL Capital Group.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath noted that the Bank Nifty broke its support at 51,000 and also closed below the same.
“Immediate support is now near 50,000 which also was closely tested, however, towards the end of the session, the index recovered, indicating a possibility of a dead cat bounce from the current levels. The momentum indicators are in the over-sold region, which can also be a reason for a small bounce from the current levels,” said Dwarakanath
Options writer's data of monthly expiry showed increased writing in the calls of 50,500 and above levels, indicating weakness in the index, he added.
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