Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Monday after a sharp fall last week and amid gains in global equities.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a positive start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,250 level, a premium of nearly 60 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity benchmark indices extended losses for the fifth straight session and ended nearly a percent lower.
The Sensex crashed 808.65 points, or 0.98%, to close at 81,688.45, while the Nifty 50 settled 235.50 points, or 0.93%, lower at 25,014.60.
Nifty 50 formed a bear candle on the daily chart with a long upper shadow.
“The formation of long upper shadows in the last three sessions indicates sell on rise opportunity in the market. Nifty 50 on the weekly chart formed a long bear candle that has retraced the last couple of weekly bullish candles on the downside. This is a negative indication and signal formation of a reversal pattern as per smaller and larger timeframe charts,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to Shetti, the near-term up trend of Nifty 50 has turned down sharply and having placed at the support of around 25,000, there is a hope of minor upside bounce in early this week which is expected to be a sell on rise opportunity.
“A decisive move below 25,000 - 24,950 levels could open the next downside of 24,500 in the near term,” he added.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
In terms of the options data, significant Open Interest (OI) on the put side is concentrated around the 24,500 level, indicating strong support. On the call side, notable OI concentrations are observed at the 25,400 and 25,500 levels, suggesting these will act as resistance zones in the near term, said Mandar Bhojane, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking.
He advises traders to remain cautious, maintain strict stop-losses, and avoid holding long positions overnight to mitigate risks arising from market volatility.
Nifty 50 continued the downward momentum with high volatility on October 4 and declined 235 points.
“The Nifty witnessed a bear attack for the second consecutive day. Sustained trades below key levels triggered a correction towards 25,000. The sentiment has turned extremely weak, with higher levels being used as selling zones. On the lower end, the next support is seen at 24,750, while on the higher end, resistance is visible at 25,300,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today noted that the Nifty 50 dropped nearly 5% in the last five trading sessions and was showing a bearish outlook. It is trading in the overbought zone, with the RSI remaining above 80 on the monthly timeframe.
“However, the prices have started to cool off on the daily chart. Considering the current market conditions, I recommend a ‘sell on rise’ strategy until Nifty 50 reaches the key support level between 24,000 and 23,800. It also formed a bearish candlestick pattern on weekly and daily timeframes, with High Wave Doji on the daily chart and Bearish Marubozu on the weekly chart,” Ambala said.
She expects the benchmark index Nifty to gain support between 24,900 and 24,810 and face resistance between 25,170 and 25,300.
According to her, current market valuations are not lucrative for investors, and that is why profit-booking activities have been on the rise, especially in the context of global challenges for the Indian market.
Bank Nifty index ended 383.15 points, or 0.74%, lower at 51,462.05 on Friday and formed a bearish candlestick pattern.
“Bank Nifty showed some strength intraday in Friday’s session and crossed 52,000 levels for a brief time. However, in the last hour of trades sharp selloff was seen across private sector banks that dragged the index below 51500. Short term structure for Bank Nifty has distorted and on the lower side it can move towards 51,000 - 50,840 levels, whereas, on the higher side, it will find strong resistance around 52,000 - 52,150 levels,” said Aditya Agarwal Head of Derivatives & Technical Analysis at Sanctum Wealth.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in noted that the Bank Nifty has taken support from its 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) at 51,300 levels and a bounce from the present levels is likely to come, which again is short-lived.
“All the momentum indicators are in the oversold region, which can also be a reason for a small bounce from present levels. On a weekly chart, the Bank Nifty index has closed well below the upper Keltner channel, paving the way for further downside in the coming week. Options writer's data shows increased writing at 51,500 levels and above both in weekly and monthly expiries, indicating weakness to continue in the index from the present levels,” said Dwarakanath.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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