Nifty posts best winning streak in 3 years on RBI pause

The Nifty and Sensex scaled fresh record highs, driven by FPI buying, as RBI’s rate setting committee kept the repo rate unchanged but raised the economic growth forecast by 50 basis points to 7% from FY24. However, analysts remain divided on the near-term market prospects, with the Fed meeting next week being the only immediate trigger.

The Nifty logged the longest winning streak in three years this Friday, hitting a fresh record of 21,006.10 while the Sensex surged to an all-time high of 69,893.80, falling shy of the 70,000 mark by just 106 points as FPIs net purchased shares worth a provisional ₹3,632.30 crore. DIIs, however, sold shares worth ₹434.02 crore. Among sectoral indices, Bank Nifty hit a fresh high of 47,303.65.

The last occasion when the Nifty rose a consecutive six weeks was between June and July 2020. The Nifty and Sensex also posted records for the highest closing with the former gaining 0.33% to 20,969.40 while the Sensex gained 0.44% to close at 69,825.60. The NSE clocked a turnover above ₹1 trillion for the fifth straight session at ₹1.06 trillion.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%, in line with market expectations, for the fifth straight policy meeting and retained its stance as withdrawal of accommodation. However, the market cheered the 50-bps hike in GDP forecast by MPC.

“The policy was largely in-line, the positive being the GDP growth forecast upped by 50 bps,” said Siddhartha Khemka, research head at Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL). “I expect the Nifty to head to 22,000 in the near term, given the revival of FPI buying since November. The support is placed at the mid-September high of 20,222.45.”

Against MOFSL estimations of 21% PAT growth in Q2FY24, Nifty earnings grew by 28%.

Khemka expects the growth momentum to continue in Q3, thanks to the government spending on infrastructure, which is giving a fillip to manufacturing growth. The economy expanded by a higher than expected 7.6% year on year in Q2, driven by a 13.9% growth in the manufacturing sector.

However, Deepak Jasani, head of retail research at HDFC Securities, expects Nifty to have topped for the near term. “Nifty formed a near high wave bottom pattern on daily charts on 8 December. Given the sharp recent rise, such a pattern could portend a reversal if the low of Friday is breached. Nifty could now stay in the 20850-21050 band for the near term.”

Friday’s gains on Nifty were dominated by software companies, led by Infosys, LTI Mindtree and HCL Technologies which rose between 1.72% -2.72%.

FPIs have turned buyers since November after a two-month break, during which they sold shares worth ₹39,316 crore. After purchasing shares worth ₹9001 crore in November, they bought shares worth ₹26,505 crore so far this month.