NSE IPO to US-Iran war: 3 reasons why Sensex, Nifty may see a flat-to-weak start today | Indian markets outlook

Indian Stock Market | Sensex, Nifty 50 today: The benchmark indices of the Indian stock market saw profit-booking at higher levels last week. On a weekly basis, the Nifty 50 index ended 1.15% lower, while the Sensex was down by 750 points. Among sectors, the Auto index lost the most, shedding over 3.8%, whereas the Oil and Gas index outperformed, rallying 1.30%. During the week, the market breached the crucial support zone of 24,000/76800. However, it showed a promising recovery from the 23,800/76100 level.

According to stock market experts, pressure on these key Dalal Street indices may persist, and the Indian stock market may trade flat to negative in the near term. They said that the buzz around the mega ₹30,000 crore NSE IPO, escalation in the Middle East tension due to the fresh US strikes in Iran and strong US bond yields are expected to keep the Indian stocks under pressure and the Nifty 50 may not see the 25,000 levels in September 2026.

NSE IPO | Nifty may not touch 25K in Sept 2026

Highlighting the challenge posed by the NSE IPO for the Sensex, Nifty 50 and other indices of the Indian stock market, Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital, said, “The NSE IPO is expected to catalyse a switch of money from the secondary market to the primary market. People remember that BSE has surged more than 7 times since its listing in 2017. Investors are expecting the NSE IPO to replicate BSE IPO performance, if not a better performance than the BSE IPO.”

The Basav Capital Co-founder believes that the Indian stock market is expected to remain an ideal ‘sell-on-rise’ market until bidding for the NSE IPO ends, saying, “The Indian markets are expected to witness profit-booking at higher levels, and hence we believe the Nifty 50 may not touch the 25,000 level in September 2026 as investors' interest has shifted towards the NSE IPO.”

Escalation in the US-Iran war

Pointing towards the US-Iran latest news, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “After the fresh strikes by the US on Iran, tension has escalated in the Middle East and hence we are expecting a rise in the crude oil pries and Breant Crude may touch $100 per barrel in the near term, if some truce doesn't come from either US or Iran.”

Gupta said that rising crude oil prices may fuel inflation concerns, denting bulls' sentiment. So, the near-term outlook for the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market looks weak. He predicted a flat-to-negative opening on Monday due to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Rising US bond yields

Rising US bond yields and a strong US dollar are expected to put pressure on the global markets, including Dalal Street. Experts believe tokenisation of US bonds is expected to gain momentum, which may not be good news for Asian markets, including the Indian stock market.

Experts believe the US Central Bank is trying to tokenise its bonds to overcome the redemption challenge. The US administration is not in the mood to relinquish the dominance of the US Dollar (USD) in global merchandise trade, and they want their bonds to be less regulated and more driven by market sentiment. Experts said that these are the three major reasons that have forced the US administration to revamp their bond market policy and the US Fed's communication policy.

Expecting the US bond yields to sustain at higher levels in the near-term, Sandeep Pandey of Basav Capital said, "A few days ago, when the gold prices were skyrocketing, countries like Russia, China, India, Brazil, and some more developing economies of the third world, were converting their bonds into physical gold. The vision behind this gold hoarding was to create a bond redemption problem for the US administration.”

Pandey said the US administration is now trying to come out of this net by tokenising its treasuries and attracting investment from around the world. He said that investors from emerging economies would see this as a good opportunity, as they would get leveraged exposure to US bonds at a lower interest rate (sometimes the bond yield would be higher than the amount borrowed against the leveraged bond).

“As the US bond yield remains at the higher levels, which would push the US dollar north, the Indian National Rupee (INR) is expected to remain weak, which is not a good sign for the stock market,” said Pandey.

Stock market outlook | Technical chat on Sensex, Nifty trend

On what technical chart suggests about Nifty 50 and Sensex today, Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research at Kotak Securities, said, “Technically, the short-term market trend still appears weak, but if the market manages to trade above the 24,000/76800 mark, a pullback formation is likely to continue in the near future. Above 24,000/76800, the market could sustain positive momentum up to the 50 and 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average), or around 24,200/77400.”

The Kotak Securities expert said that further upside could push the index to 24,350/77800. On the other hand, below 23,800/76100, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If the market falls below this level, it could retest the 23,600-23,500/75500-75200 zone.

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