OpenAI, Anthropic are minting billions. Why isn't AI boosting Indian IT stocks like Infosys, TCS? Samir Arora answers

Veteran investor Samir Arora has raised a thought-provoking question about the artificial intelligence boom and the role of traditional IT services companies like TCS, Infosys and others in it. While technology firms continue to argue that enterprises need significant support to implement AI, he asks, how are AI model providers such as OpenAI and Anthropic already generating tens of billions of dollars in enterprise revenue? The question, according to Arora, exposes a potential disconnect between what IT services companies are saying and what enterprises are actually doing.

"IT Service companies say things like 'a bridge is needed for AI transformation and we are the bridge' or that 'AI is moving from pilot to industrialization' etc and that AI implementation projects may take time but this transformation cannot be done without them," Founder and Fund Manager. Helios Capital Management said in a post on X.

The investor pointed out that Anthropic's annualised revenue run rate has already reached about $50 billion, while OpenAI's stands at around $30 billion. According to him, most of that revenue is already coming from enterprise customers. He further noted that if Anthropic is to pursue an IPO this year, its revenue run rate next year may need to exceed $100 billion.

Arora questioned how enterprises have become comfortable spending such massive amounts on AI models even though IT services firms continue to talk about waiting for large-scale implementation projects to materialise.

"My question: How come IT services companies are still waiting for AI implementation projects and at the same time enterprises will soon be spending $100-200 billion on these 2 model companies alone. Who assisted these enterprises so that they are comfortable spending so much already?" he asked.

According to Arora, the current phase of AI adoption should theoretically require the greatest amount of external support. AI models are still evolving, use cases are being discovered and enterprises are navigating a rapidly changing technological landscape.

"Logically, more help should be needed at this stage where models may be less developed and users are less familiar- and still they are presumably doing this on their own. May be you don't need the amount of help that IT service companies think will be needed," he said.

The implication, according to Arora, is that enterprises may be finding it easier to deploy AI tools than many in the IT services industry anticipated. If that is indeed the case, it could have important implications for how investors assess the long-term opportunity for traditional technology service providers.

At the same time, Arora stopped short of drawing firm conclusions and instead presented the issue as an open-ended question for the market.

"Who assisted these enterprises so that they are comfortable spending so much already? For it sure does not look like IT service companies saw anything substantial. You tell me- I dont have the answers," he said.

As enterprise AI spending races ahead, the answer could help determine whether the biggest winners of the AI era will be the model builders themselves or the companies that claim they are essential to implementing the technology.

IT stocks crash today

After a sharp rally over the previous three trading sessions, investors booked profits in IT stocks amid a broader market selloff, dragging the Nifty IT index down nearly 6%. The decline followed a 7% surge in the sectoral index during the preceding three sessions.

Selling pressure was widespread across the Nifty IT pack, with all 10 constituents trading in the red. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) led the losses, plunging nearly 9% to ₹2,224.80. Other index heavyweights, including Infosys, HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra, fell between 4% and 6%.

The weakness extended across the broader IT space as well. LTIMindtree tumbled more than 8%, while Coforge and Persistent Systems declined 6% each. Mphasis and Oracle Financial Services Software (OFSS) slipped 4% apiece.

Collectively, the sharp declines pushed the Nifty IT index down 5.8% to 29,301, making it the worst-performing sectoral index on the NSE during the session.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.