Phalodi Satta Bazar predicts clear majority for BJP in Lok Sabha elections; investors eye seat share, voter turnout

Phalodi Satta Bazar Predictions: Just days before the Lok Sabha election results, Rajasthan's popular Phalodi Satta Bazar has predicted a clear majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with a seat share of around 300. The Phalodi Satta Bazar has gained wide attention for its predictive betting assessments.

The betting market suggests a consecutive third-term victory for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government, predicting that the saffron party will win approximately 290-300 seats. In contrast, the Congress is projected to secure only 40-42 seats, a decline from its 52 seats in the 2019 elections. The remaining seats are expected to be secured by the other parties. 

Also Read: Lok Sabha elections 2024: Indian stock market to be disappointed if BJP falls short of PM's 400-seat prediction— experts

The Phalodi Satta Bazaar has a history of accurate predictions, whether in elections, cricket matches, or weather forecasts. Despite a lower voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is still anticipated to win between 62 and 65 out of 80 seats. Several reports and predictions of Phalodi Satta Bazaar indicate that the BJP aims to capture all 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, with a probability of winning 335 to 340 seats overall. 

Disclaimer: Satta Bazaar's prediction is based on speculative numbers. Mint could not independently verify these facts.

The betting rates in the Satta Bazaar fluctuate based on multiple factors, including candidate popularity, caste-based support, voter support at the election campaign rallies, party strength and status. The current rates reflect the numbers after six voting phases, with one more remaining. These rates may change as voting progresses.
 

Satta Bazaar's final betting numbers:
 

Palanpur Satta Bazaar

Congress - 112

INDIA - 225

BJP - 216

NDA - 247

Karnal Satta Bazaar

Congress - 108

INDIA - 231

BJP - 235

NDA -263

Bohri Satta Bazaar

Congress - 115

INDIA - 212

BJP - 227

NDA - 255

Belgaum Satta Bazaar

Congress - 120

INDIA - 230

BJP - 223

NDA -265

Kolkata Satta Bazaar

Congress - 128

INDIA - 228

BJP - 218

NDA - 261

Vijaywada Satta Bazar

Congress - 121

INDIA - 237

BJP - 224

NDA - 251

Indore Sarafa

Congress - 94

INDIA - 180

BJP - 260

NDA - 283

Ahmedabad Chokha Baar

Congress - 104

INDIA - 193

BJP - 241

NDA -270

Surat Maghobi

Congress - 96

INDIA - 186

BJP - 247

NDA - 282

The last phase of voting will be held on June 1, and the final general election results will be declared on Tuesday, June 4.
 

D-Street sentiments ahead of Lok Sabha election results

The Indian stock market experienced a widespread selloff on Thursday, May 30, on the expiry day of May futures and options (F&O) contracts. The sentiment of participants remained jittery ahead of the Lok Sabha election 2024 results.

The Sensex ended with a loss of 617 points, or 0.83 per cent, at 73,885.60, while the Nifty 50 closed the day at 22,488.65, down 216 points, or 0.95 per cent. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 experienced their fifth consecutive session of losses, each dropping by about 2 per cent over this period, resulting in investors losing nearly ₹10 lakh crore.

‘’In our view, there is a high probability that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the government with the BJP getting the full majority. Elections will be over on June 1 and the market will react to exit polls on June 3 (Monday). We note that in the past two elections, the BJP got significantly higher seats compared to poll predictions," said Jitendra Gohil, Chief Investment Strategist, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers.

He further noted that +/- 10-20 seats for the BJP, compared to the previous seat count of 303, should not make much of a difference to the market trajectory. "Investors are looking for a stable government with continuation of policies. Hence, a full majority for the BJP will be BAU for the market,'' added Gohil.

Also Read: Sensex, Nifty 50 fall for 5th session in a row; investors lose nearly ₹10 lakh crore in 5 sessions

What if the BJP gets less than the full majority mark and forms a coalition government with the NDA partners?

According to Gohil, in this scenario, the market may correct 5-10 per cent. However, in the medium term, it won't make much of a difference and the market may recover. However, in case the NDA fails to form the government, although the probability is thin, the market may fall 20 per cent+ and will take time to fully recover, he noted.

Gohil stated that this unexpected outcome might trigger a major sell-off in PSUs, capital goods, manufacturing (especially PLI scheme-related sectors), and defence-related stocks; but the IT and FMCG sectors may see buying interest. “While in the long run, it is difficult to predict the policy shifts between governments, the previous 10 years of reforms will be difficult to reverse,” he opined. 

Market experts suggest that it is prudent to diversify portfolios and reduce risks ahead of the election results as the upside could be limited but downside could be more than 20 per cent, though the probability of the NDA losing is thin.
 

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.