Q1 results FY27 to US-Iran war: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: Indian markets ended the week on a positive note despite heightened volatility, as investors assessed the implementation of the new Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework for F&O stocks, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

Over the week, the Sensex rose 0.52% to 78,499.17, while the Nifty gained 0.77% to finish at 24,570.65.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, the coming week is likely to be shaped by two dominant themes: developments in the Middle East and the July US inflation report. While Indian equities continue to benefit from resilient corporate earnings, improving foreign institutional flows, and supportive domestic liquidity.

“Investors are likely to remain cautious as geopolitical uncertainty and evolving expectations for US monetary policy continue to influence global risk appetite,” Ponmudi said.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] Q1 results FY27

The earnings season is all set to continue this week as major marquee companies like Vodafone Idea, Hindustan Aeronautics, RVNL, Tata Motors, Bharat Dynamics are scheduled to release their April-June quarter (Q1 results 2026) in the coming week.

“The Q1 FY27 earnings season will gather further momentum, with several companies, including Ashok Leyland, Apollo Hospitals, HAL, Bharat Forge, Grasim Industries, and Tata Motors, scheduled to announce their quarterly results,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

2] Inflation data

India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) retail inflation data for July 2026 will be announced on August 12, 2026 (Wednesday) by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

According to Mishra, Domestically, investors will closely monitor the July CPI inflation print, WPI inflation, and the latest foreign exchange reserves data for fresh insights into inflation trends and external sector stability.

“These releases will be particularly important following the RBI's decision to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance,” Mishra said.

3] US-Iran war

Iran has put forward fresh and significant conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while the United Arab Emirates reported that one of its vessels had been targeted by an Iranian missile. Meanwhile, Yemen’s military launched an attack against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, and Turkey’s parliament approved a bill aimed at advancing the Kurdish peace process.

A 60-day window for negotiating a final agreement is set to expire in a little over a week, although the deadline could still be extended.

Iran has also indicated that it is nearing a separate agreement with Oman over arrangements to manage navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between the two countries.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier on Saturday that Tehran was close to reaching an understanding on navigation, particularly regarding the designation of a transit route. However, he noted that reopening the waterway would depend on the fulfilment of additional conditions and blamed the current situation on what he described as a US breach of the interim agreement.

4] Crude oil prices

Brent crude oil prices rose by more than $1 a barrel on Friday as uncertainty persisted over ongoing negotiations aimed at determining control of and facilitating the reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

Brent crude futures settled at $83.55 a barrel, up $1.06, or 1.3%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended at $78.18 a barrel, gaining 89 cents, or 1.15%.

Oil prices had declined earlier in the week as hopes grew for a potential resolution to the conflict. However, prices have continued to fluctuate amid shifting expectations since the US and Israel jointly launched strikes on the country in late February, triggering a conflict that has now entered its sixth month. Despite Friday’s gains, Brent was headed for a weekly decline of more than 8%, while WTI was set to fall over 7%.

5] FII flows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net buyers of Indian equities on Friday, snapping their brief selling run, according to provisional data from the stock exchanges.

FIIs bought shares worth ₹12,941.31 crore while selling equities valued at ₹12,461.07 crore, resulting in a net investment of ₹480.24 crore during the session.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also maintained their buying momentum, recording a net inflow of ₹235.56 crore. They purchased equities worth ₹15,679.58 crore and sold shares worth ₹15,444.02 crore.

The latest fund flow figures came a day after FIIs were marginal net sellers on Thursday, offloading equities worth ₹17.86 crore. DIIs, on the other hand, remained strong buyers in the previous session, investing a net ₹4,013.60 crore in Indian equities.

" For the second consecutive week, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers, following net purchases of ₹59.49 billion in the previous week with an additional ₹29.11 billion in the current week, based on provisional exchange data. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) also maintained their buying momentum, recording net purchases of ₹77.68 billion, with inflows observed in four of the five trading sessions.

The sustained buying by both FIIs and DIIs was largely driven by the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which helped strengthen investor confidence and supported positive market sentiment," said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.