Q3 results 2026, inflation data to Trump's tariffs: Top five triggers for Indian stock market this week

Stock market next week: Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 closed in the red for the fifth straight session on Friday, January 9, as fresh worries over US tariffs, caution ahead of the Q3 earnings season, and persistent foreign fund outflows continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

The Sensex slumped 605 points, or 0.72%, to settle at 83,576.24, while the Nifty 50 fell 194 points, or 0.75%, to end at 25,683.30. Broader markets also came under pressure, with the BSE Midcap index declining 0.90% and the Smallcap index tumbling 1.74%.

The extended sell-off over five sessions has pulled the Sensex down by 2,186 points, or about 2.5%, while the Nifty 50 has also recorded a cumulative drop of 2.5% during the same period.

“Markets witnessed a sharp sell-off during the week, with benchmark indices ending firmly in the red amid weak global cues and heightened uncertainty. Sentiment remained negative throughout the week and selling pressure intensified in the final sessions. Consequently, the Sensex declined 2.55% to close at 83,576.24, while the Nifty fell 2.45% to 25,683.30, marking one of the steepest weekly declines in recent months,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

Stock Market Outlook next week

Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, said that the market focus in the coming week will shift firmly to third-quarter earnings from India Inc, with heavyweight IT companies set to take centre stage and drive index-level direction. HCL Tech, TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Wipro—together accounting for nearly 13% of the Nifty’s weight—are scheduled to report, making their results and management commentary critical for broader market sentiment.

"Investor focus will be firmly on post-results management commentary and forward guidance. Key areas to watch will include trends in client IT budgets for the current year, signs of recovery in discretionary spending across industries, and hiring plans—especially in the context of tighter H-1B visa approvals. Equally important will be updates on progress in AI-led technologies and infrastructure, which are increasingly being viewed as the next growth engine for the sector.

Earnings from Reliance Industries Ltd will be another major trigger next week, given its significant weight in the indices. Investors will watch trends across the energy, retail and telecom businesses, with guidance on demand, margins and capex likely to drive sentiment," Ponmudi added.

Top triggers for the Indian stock market

Q3 results 2026

The earnings season is all set to begin in the coming week, with heavyweight IT companies - Tata Consultancy, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra will be declaring their December quarter results in the coming.

Other than IT sector companies, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and Jio Financial Services will also be reporting their third-quarter financial results next week.

Inflation data

The coming week is all set to be macroeconomic heavy as India's CPI inflation, WPI inflation, trade balance, and foreign exchange reserves data will be announced.

Trump's tariffs

The US Supreme Court is scheduled to deliver its next set of decisions on January 14, with a number of high-profile cases still awaiting verdicts, including a challenge to President Donald Trump’s broad global tariff measures.

The court did not release a ruling on Friday, January 9, in the case questioning the legality of Trump’s sweeping tariffs.

Trump has defended the tariffs, claiming they have bolstered the US economy, and cautioned that overturning them would deal a “terrible blow” to the nation.

“Globally, markets will keenly watch developments around the US Supreme Court verdict on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, which could act as a key sentiment driver,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking.

Metal prices

Gold prices climbed on Friday and were poised to post a weekly advance, as investors digested weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll data amid ongoing policy and geopolitical uncertainties.

Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,496.09 per ounce, putting it on course for a weekly gain of around 3.9%.

Spot silver jumped 3.5% to $79.56 per ounce and was heading toward a weekly gain of around 9.7%. Spot platinum edged up 0.8% to $2,284.50 per ounce, while palladium advanced 1.6% to $1,814.93 per ounce, with both metals also on course to post weekly gains.

FII Activity

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to be net sellers in the Indian equity market in five of the past seven January sessions, indicating that the heavy selling pressure seen in 2025 has yet to ease.

Following a record net outflow of ₹166,286 crore last year, FPIs have further offloaded Indian shares worth ₹11,789 crore so far this month, as per NSDL data.

“FII investment in early 2026 has begun with the continuation of the trend of the previous year. In 2025 FIIs had net sold equity for ₹166283 crores impacting the performance of the Indian market and also weakening the rupee by about 5%. At the beginning of 2026 the expectation was that FIIs will turn buyers on improvement in GDP growth and corporate earnings,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Technical Outlook

Nifty 50

According to Mishra, the sharp decline has disrupted the Nifty’s short-term uptrend, with the index now retesting its medium-term support near the 100-day EMA around the 25,600 level.

“A decisive break below this zone could extend the decline toward 25,300 and subsequently the key long-term support near the 200-day EMA around 25,150. While momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions that may trigger a short-term technical bounce, any recovery is likely to encounter stiff resistance near previous breakdown levels. On the upside, reclaiming the 20-day EMA around 26,000 will be challenging, with the next major hurdle placed near 26,200,” Mishra said.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty index also retreated from record highs but continues to show relatively better resilience.

“The previous swing low around 58,700 remains a critical support; a break below this could weaken the short-term structure and drag the index toward the 57,800–58,000 zone. On the upside, the 58,800–60,500 range is expected to act as a strong resistance band,” he added.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.