Q4 results FY26, US-Iran war to crude oil prices: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: The Indian stock market staged a robust recovery after six straight weeks of losses, driven by positive global cues. Investor sentiment stayed positive on hopes of a temporary US–Iran ceasefire, though ongoing geopolitical uncertainties limited the momentum of gains as the week unfolded.

Both benchmark indices — the Nifty and Sensex — rose around 6%, ending near their weekly highs at 24,050.60 and 77,550.25, respectively.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, a SEBI - registered online trading and wealth tech firm, markets in the coming week are likely to remain volatile and largely driven by news flow, with investor focus centred on the outcome of US–Iran negotiations.

Ponmudi further noted that developments on this front are expected to have a direct bearing on global risk sentiment and crude oil prices. The shift in foreign investor activity in the final session suggests a degree of cautious optimism around the prospects of a truce.

“The sustainability of any inflows will depend on the clarity and durability of diplomatic progress. A renewed escalation in tensions or a sharp rebound in oil prices could reintroduce downside risks. Conversely, continued moderation in crude prices, alongside supportive global cues, may prompt short-covering and lend near-term support to markets,” he added.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] US-Iran peace talks

US Vice President JD Vance said on Sunday that negotiations with Iran concluded after 21 hours without a deal, according to reports.

"We’ve had several substantive discussions with the Iranians. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement — and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America," he said.

He noted that the main sticking point was the issue of nuclear weapons. While Iran maintains it is not seeking to develop an atomic bomb, the US and Israel have targeted key Iranian sites both during the conflict that began on February 28 and in earlier strikes last year.

“The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they (Iran) will not seek a nuclear weapon and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon, that is the core goal of the President of the US. That is what we have tried to achieve through these negotiations,” he added.

2] Q4 results 2026

The earnings season has officially kicked in as more than 50 companies, including Wipro, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank, will report their financial results for the quarter ending on March 31, 2026.

“With the onset of the Q4 FY26 earnings season, key results from heavyweight companies such as Wipro, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank will be closely monitored, along with several others,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

3] Crude oil prices

Oil futures closed lower on Friday, marking their steepest weekly drop since 2022, as investors looked ahead to talks between Iran and the U.S. focused on securing a lasting ceasefire.

Crude prices hovered around $100 per barrel amid ongoing attacks and significant disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while concerns persisted about possible supply interruptions in Saudi Arabia.

Brent crude settled 72 cents lower, or 0.8%, at $95.20 a barrel, ending the week with a 12.7% decline. The losses followed a sharp selloff after Iran and the U.S. reached a two-week ceasefire agreement on Tuesday, brokered by Pakistan.

Mishra added, “The upcoming week will be crucial, particularly developments around the scheduled negotiations between the US and Iran and their impact on crude oil prices.”

4] Indian Rupee vs US Dollar

The rupee gave up its early gains and ended 32 paise lower at 92.83 against the US dollar on Friday, pressured by escalating global tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict.

According to forex traders, as quoted by PTI, the currency experienced significant volatility as the deadline for the RBI’s directive requiring banks to limit their overnight positions to $100 million fell on Friday, amid increased geopolitical uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the dollar index—which measures the US dollar against a basket of six currencies—rose 0.03% to 98.84. Safe-haven demand has eased following the ceasefire, but its fragile nature is prompting buying interest in the greenback at lower levels.

5] FII outflows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have continued their selling streak in Indian equities, offloading shares worth ₹48,213 crore so far in April. Their total net sales for the year to date have reached ₹1,79,335 crore.

However, on Friday, FIIs turned marginal buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹672.09 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers at ₹410.05 crore, supporting the market’s strong close following a pause in gains on Thursday.

“FPIs turning buyers in the market will depend on the situation in West Asia and crude prices. If there is de-escalation in the conflict and crude declines significantly, India’s macros will not be impacted materially. If the conflict prolongs India’s macros will be impacted. It would be unrealistic expect FPIs to turn buyers in such a scenario,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.