RBI Monetary Policy Highlights: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.5%; stance remains neutral; cuts inflation estimates

RBI MPC Meeting Highlights: Here are key takeaways from August RBI monetary policy today:

1] Policy Measures:

• Repo rate unchanged at 5.50%
• Policy stance maintained at ‘Neutral’
• CRR at 3%
• SDF rate at 5.25%
• MSF rate at 5.75%
• Bank Rate at 5.75%
• MPC members unanimously voted to keep repo rate unchanged

2] GDP Growth Estimates:

RBI maintains real GDP growth estimates for FY26 at 6.5%. Here are the quarterly estimates:

• Q1FY26: 6.5%
• Q2FY26: 6.7%
• Q3FY26: 6.6%
• Q4FY26: 6.3%
• GDP growth estimates for Q1FY27 is at 6.6%

3] CPI Inflation Forecast

RBI cuts FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.1% from 3.7% earlier. The quarterly estimates are:

• Q2FY26: Cut to 2.1% from 3.4%
• Q3FY26: Cut to 3.1% from 3.9%
• Q4FY26: Maintained at 4.4%
• CPI inflation estimates for Q1FY27 is at 4.9%

4] Developmental and Regulatory Policies

• Camps for re-KYC for Jan Dhan accounts to focus on micro insurance and pension schemes
• RBI to standardise procedure for settlement of claims in respect of deposit accounts of deceased customers of banks
• RBI to introduce Auto-bidding facilities in RBI Retail Direct for Investment and Re-investment in T-bills

5] The minutes of the MPC meeting will be published on August 20, 2025.

6] The next MPC meeting is scheduled from September 29 to October 1, 2025.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: This reform is part of a broader set of customer-oriented measures — including simplified re-KYC procedures that highlight the RBI’s commitment to improving the banking experience. By establishing uniform claim settlement processes for accounts and safe deposit lockers of deceased customers, the RBI seeks to alleviate the emotional and procedural difficulties faced by grieving families, ensuring empathy, clarity, and consistency during sensitive times. Successful implementation depends on consistent enforcement across all banks, effective communication with both branch staff and customers, and robust safeguards to prevent fraud and legal challenges, said Pratik Shah, National Leader - Financial Services, EY India.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: We expect the bond markets likely to be in range bound with an upward sloping yield curve, further rate cuts will depend on global factors and change in growth outlook. For now, a closure on tariff negotiations will be the key to calm the currency markets and stem outflows especially in the debt segment, said Vinay Pai, Head of Fixed Income, Equirus Capital.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: In our assessment, given the growth inflation dynamics, the rate environment is expected to remain benign with further rate reductions ahead. Hence, investors are advised to remain invested in light of the prevailing benign environment, said Parijat Agrawal, Head of Fixed Income at Union Asset Management Company.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The RBI Governor’s remarks did not reflect dovish undertones, with the FY26 real GDP growth forecast retained at 6.5%. The central bank is likely to deliver a calibrated 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming October 2025 policy meeting, influenced by the uneven economic recovery and trade tensions. However, if growth significantly undershoots the RBI’s FY26 GDP estimate, the probability of two additional rate cuts increases meaningfully. Additionally, any easing by the Fed would provide further headroom for the RBI to act without significantly destabilising capital flows, said Hitesh Jain, Strategist, Institutional Equities Research at YES Securities.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The aspirational GDP growth is more than 6.5%. However, in the past we have done 7.8% on an average. So we should aspire for a higher growth rate than 6.5%, RBI Governor said.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The currency value will continue to move as we live in a world full of volatility. The US dollar has witnessed a lot of movement in recent times. Our currency has shown less volatility and that’s a positive sign, RBI Guv Malhotra said.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: We have very robust growth rate of 6.55. We are contributing 18% to global growth, more than the US. The Indian economy is doing very well and will continue to , said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on US President Donald Trump’s comment on Indian economy.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Foreign flows depend on many things. We are quite confident that our reserves are adequate for over 11 months of imports. We are confident of meeting whatever needs from the internal side, said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on trade uncertainties impact on inflow of foreign funds.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: We do not see a major impact of US tariff on Indian economy unless we have retaliatory tariff, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said. Speaking on rising trade tensions between India and US, Malhotra added, “We are hopeful that we will have an amicable solution.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Housing credit is overall doing well, it may have moderated. Overall housing credit is 14%, which is more than average credit growth rate of 10% this year, says RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Nearly half of our inflation basket consists of food which does not get impacted directly by global developments. Direct impact of evolving global uncertainty very low on India's inflation is very limited, says RBI Deputy Governor Dr. Poonam Gupta

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Some global uncertainties already factored in previously revised lowered growth forecast. We maintain a very close vigil on incoming data, said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra along with his deputies begins post-policy press conference

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: As RBI had front loaded rate cuts, it was expected to maintain a status quo. It is a welcome move. However, it leaves room to reconsider in coming months as CPI is benign and a push for growth may be required. At Indian Bank, we have already passed on benefits of previous rate cuts and expect further normalisation in MCLR as cost of funds continue southward journey, said Binod Kumar MD & CEO of Indian Bank.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities expects Indian rupee to stay in a range from 87 to 88.20. “We don’t deny possibilities of an all-time record low ahead of Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on India, something to be monitored closely,” said Trivedi.

The Indian rupee edged up to 87.77 per dollar after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged, in line with market expectations, and maintained a neutral policy stance.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The Indian stock market traded lower after the RBI monetary policy. The Sensex dropped more than 200 points near 80,470, while the benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.4% near 24,550 level, after the RBI MPC decision.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% even while reducing the CPI inflation forecast to 3.1% for FY 26 from 3.7% earlier can be described as a ‘dovish pause.’ Downtrending inflation in the backdrop of good monsoon and Kharif sowing will keep inflation well anchored enabling the MPC to go for another rate cut in this rate cutting cycle. The RBI Governor’s view that “we are waiting for the transmission of a front-loaded rate cut” is the right view under the present circumstances. This policy of dovish pause while continuing with the neutral policy stance is good for the banking and other rate sensitive sectors, said Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: To enable investors to systematically plan their investments, an auto-bidding facility for Treasury bills (T-bills), covering both investment and re-investment options, has been enabled in Retail Direct. The new functionality helps investors to mandate automatic placement of bids in primary auctions of T-bills.  

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: RBI will be standardising the procedure for settlement of claims in respect of bank accounts, and articles kept in safe custody or safe deposit lockers of deceased bank customers. This is expected to make settlement more convenient and simple, Malhotra said. A draft circular in this regard shall be issued shortly for public consultation.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: On the external financing side, gross foreign direct investment (FDI) to India remained strong during April-May 2025-26. However, net FDI moderated during this period due to higher outward FDI. As on August 1, 2025, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $688.9 billion, sufficient to cover more than 11 months of merchandise imports. Overall, India’s external sector remains resilient. We remain confident of meeting our external financing requirements comfortably, said RBI Governor Malhotra

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: India’s current account deficit (CAD) moderated to 0.6% of GDP in 2024 - 2025 from 0.7% of GDP in 2023-24 due to robust services exports and strong remittances receipts despite higher merchandise trade deficit. Merchandise trade deficit further widened in Q1 of 2025-26. India’s share in world services exports has risen markedly from about 2% in 2005 to 4.3% in 2024, driven by strong software and business services exports. Robust services exports coupled with strong remittance receipts are expected to keep CAD within the sustainable level during the current financial year, RBI Governor said.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Keeping the repo rate unchanged is the most prudent policy action taken by the MPC. Given that the Indian rupee is weakening and narrowing of the global interest rate differentials, the scope for rate reduction was slim. In the interest of stability of the currency given the volatile trade conditions, the status quo on interest rate is the best that the monetary authority can do, said Umesh Kumar Mehta, CIO, SAMCO Mutual Fund.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The MPC unanimously voted to keep the repo rate unchanged. The MPC further resolved to maintain a close vigil on the incoming data and the evolving domestic growth-inflation dynamics to chart out the appropriate monetary policy path. Accordingly, all members decided to continue with the neutral stance, Governor said.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The MPC noted that the inflation outlook in the near term has become more benign than anticipated earlier, and the average CPI inflation this year is expected to remain significantly below the target. This is driven mainly by lower food inflation that entered deflationary territory in June. However, CPI inflation is likely to edge up above the 4 per cent target from Q4:2025-26 onwards, said RBI Governor Malhotra.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The global environment continues to be challenging. Although financial market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties have abated somewhat from their peaks in recent months, trade negotiation challenges continue to linger. Global growth, though revised upwards by the IMF, remains muted. The pace of disinflation is slowing down, with some advanced economies even witnessing an uptick in inflation, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: Monetary policy transmission is continuing and the impact of the previous 100 bps rate cut is still unfolding. Rural consumption remains resilient, and services activity remains steady. Some high-frequency data showed mixed signals Apr-May. While the geopolitical uncertainties have abated, global trade marked by incoming tariffs continues to weigh in, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in his policy speech.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: RBI cut FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.1% from 3.7% earlier. The quarterly estimates are:

Q2FY26: Cut to 2.1% from 3.4%

Q3FY26: Cut to 3.1% from 3.9%

Q4FY26: Maintained at 4.4%

CPI inflation estimates for Q1FY27 is at 4.9%

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: RBI's projections of real GDP growth for FY26 remains unchanged  at 6.5%. Here are the quarterly estimates:

Q1FY26: 6.5%

Q2FY26: 6.7%

Q3FY26: 6.6%

Q4FY26: 6.3%

Q1FY27: 6.6%

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: Core inflation remains steady around 4% mark, says RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.5%; monetary policy stance remains ‘Neutral’

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.5%

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: Watch RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s monetary policy speech live on Livemint’s YouTube channel here

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: As the real estate sector continues to benefit from improved buyer sentiment and strong housing demand, we look forward to a supportive stance from the RBI in the upcoming monetary policy. We are hopeful of a further rate cut as it would be highly encouraging for homebuyers and developers alike, potentially boosting affordability and investments in the real estate sector. With construction costs on the rise affecting capital flows, lower interest rates would also ease financing pressures for developers, said Ramani Sastri - Chairman & MD, Sterling Developers.

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: The consensus view of ‘no rate cut’ in August appears to emanate more from the June policy guidance rather than the present macro realities. However, we believe there are enough reasons for the RBI to deviate from its previous guidance, deliver a further 25 bps easing in August, and be more open-ended in its policy approach / guidance for further easing ahead. Notwithstanding the “done for now” RBI guidance in June, what the last MPC meeting taught us was that macro resets would evidently need front-loaded policy action than a back-loaded one, said Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: The Indian stock market benchmark indices opened flat with a negative bias on Wednesday, ahead of the RBI monetary policy today. The Sensex opened 15.27 points, or 0.02%, lower at 80,694.98, while the Nifty 50 eased 8.20 points, or 0.03%, to open at 24,641.35. Bank Nifty index opened 30.45 points, or 0.06%, lower at 55,329.80. Meanwhile the Indian rupee opened 8 paise higher at 87.72 per US dollar as against its previous close of 87.80.

RBI MPC Meeting 2025 LIVE: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will begin his monetary policy speech to announce the MPC meeting outcome at 10:00 AM IST on Wednesday, 6 August 2025. RBI will stream the announcement live via its official YouTube channel and social media accounts. The post-policy press conference will begin at 12:00 noon and will be streamed live. You can also watch the Governor’s speech on Livemint’s YouTube channel.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: We expect the RBI to maintain a pause on rates this time, given the significant 50 bps cut in June and the need for transmission. With global uncertainties rising especially in light of the proposed US tariffs, markets will be looking for a dovish tone and clear reassurance on growth support. Any indication of future rate flexibility, liquidity support, or downward inflation revision could buoy sentiment. Ultimately, the Governor’s commentary, especially on balancing domestic demand with external risks, will be the real signal for markets, said Gaurav Garg, Lemonn Markets Desk.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: After lofty moves in June, RBI may opt to wait and watch in August policy. That said, increasingly, the market is worrying on lack of demand for credit. We think that by September, the distribution of monsoon and its consequent impact on food inflation would be somewhat clear. Hence, we would still be pencilling an additional 50 bps of rate cut in FY26 post the Kharif season. It’s worth recalling that in both the 2015 and 2019 easing cycles, credit growth remained subdued despite ample liquidity, largely because the magnitude of rate cuts was modest, said Namrata Mittal, Chief Economist, SBI Mutual Fund.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: In the June RBI policy, the central bank’s MPC surprised with a bumper 50 basis points (bps) cut in the repo rate to 5.50% from 6%. The MPC changed the policy stance to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Accommodative’, and also slashed the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps to 3% from 4% earlier. RBI maintained FY26 GDP forecast at 6.5%, while FY26 CPI inflation estimates were cut to 3.7% from 4% earlier.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%, having already frontloaded easing through both a rate cut and a 100 bps CRR reduction earlier this year. The policy stance is also expected to remain ‘Neutral’ with a dovish bias. The RBI Governor’s commentary on growth and the impact of global macroeconomic situation will be watched.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will deliver his monetary policy speech at 10:00 AM, wherein he will announce the repo rate decision taken by the Monetary Policy Committee. The MPC’s meeting was scheduled from August 4 to 6.

RBI MPC Meeting LIVE: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce its third bi-monthly monetary policy of FY26 today, 6 August 2025. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, met from August 4 to August 6, and the repo rate decision will be announced later today.