RBI MPC meeting to Q1 results FY27, US-Iran war: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: The Indian stock market witnessed a strong recovery during the week, ending their recent losing streak as softer crude oil prices, improving geopolitical developments, robust Q1 FY27 earnings, and fresh buying by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) boosted investor sentiment. The sharp decline in crude oil prices from recent highs eased concerns over imported inflation, pressure on corporate profit margins, and India's external account.

Supported by these positive factors, the benchmark indices rebounded sharply, recovering a significant portion of the losses recorded in the previous week. The Nifty climbed 2.59% to end at 24,383.60, while the Sensex rose 2.68% to close at 78,094.64, with both indices posting their second straight monthly gain in July.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money, investor attention in the coming week will remain firmly focused on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict likely to have an immediate impact on crude oil prices and broader global risk sentiment.

“Beyond geopolitics, investors will closely monitor the direction of U.S. Treasury yields, incoming U.S. economic data and commentary from Federal Reserve officials for fresh signals on the outlook for monetary policy. Particular attention will be on labour market indicators, business activity surveys and other inflation-sensitive data that could reshape expectations for the Fed's September meeting following this week's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Conversely, softer economic data could ease pressure on yields, improve risk appetite and provide additional support to equities and other risk-sensitive assets,” he said.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] RBI MPC meeting

The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet over three days from August 3 to 5, 2026, with the policy decision and Governor's statement set to be announced on August 5.

“The coming week is expected to be eventful, with the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting (August 3–5) emerging as the key domestic trigger,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

Investors will closely track the RBI's commentary for signals on the future direction of interest rates and liquidity conditions. SBI Research expects the central bank to keep policy rates unchanged, even as it projects India's GDP growth for the April–June quarter of FY27 to surpass 7%.

2] Q1 results 2026

The earnings season is all set to continue this week as major marquee companies like Bharti Airtel, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency, FSN E-Commerce Ventures Nykaa, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, Life Insurance Corporation of India, State Bank of India, Delhivery are scheduled to release their April-June quarter (Q1 results 2026) in the coming week.

“Market participants will also closely monitor the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, with several large- cap and mid-cap companies scheduled to announce their results. Management commentary on demand trends, margin outlook, and capital expenditure plans will be closely tracked,” Mishra added.

3] US-Iran war

US President Donald Trump warned of additional strikes on Iran as Washington intensified efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with geopolitical tensions across the Middle East remaining elevated.

Shortly afterwards, Kuwait reported responding to a new wave of Iranian drone attacks, while British authorities said a tanker had been hit in the strategic waterway.

At the same time, Israel carried out extensive strikes across the Gaza Strip after Hamas announced it would disarm, raising hopes of a potential breakthrough towards ending the conflict. In another development, the Houthis forced Saudi vessels to change course, while southern Lebanon also witnessed fresh developments.

4] Crude oil prices

Oil prices ended Friday more than $1 per barrel higher, posting their strongest monthly gains since March as concerns over global crude supply intensified following reports from Iran that some oil tankers had been forced to reverse course in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.09, or 1.2%, to settle at $90.12 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.08, or 1.3%, to close at $84.67 per barrel.

For the month of July, Brent advanced 24%, while WTI registered a 21% gain.

“Globally, developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict, the stability of crude oil supplies through key shipping routes, and evolving expectations for US monetary policy will remain important drivers of market sentiment,” Mishra added.

5] FII flows

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs/FPIs) continued their buying streak in Indian equities for the fourth straight session on July 31, with net purchases of ₹277.48 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers, investing ₹2,260.37 crore, according to provisional exchange data.

During the trading session, DIIs bought equities worth ₹19,885.80 crore and sold shares valued at ₹17,625.43 crore, resulting in a net inflow of ₹2,260.37 crore. FIIs, on the other hand, purchased shares worth ₹19,045.51 crore while offloading equities worth ₹18,768.03 crore, leading to a net investment of ₹277.48 crore.

"Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) selling has moderated significantly over past months, indicating a steady improvement in overseas investor sentiment. After witnessing record-high outflows earlier in 2026, the pace of selling has eased considerably, with July recording the lowest monthly outflow of the year.

The trend in monthly FII net flows highlights gradual improvement, with net outflows declining from ₹1225.4 bn in March to ₹701.4 bn in April, ₹559.6 bn in May, ₹490.3 bn in June, and just ₹57.8 bn in July based on provisional exchange data," said Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.