Reliance Industries share price rises after Trump refinery announcement: Can it hit ₹1,500 in near-term?

Shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) edged higher on Thursday even as broader markets remained under pressure, after US President Donald Trump, yesterday, announced plans to build a new oil refinery in Texas with the support of investment from the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate.

From a technical standpoint, Reliance Industries is currently moving through a consolidation phase following the recent correction, with the stock attempting to stabilise around key support levels, according to a market expert. Market participants are closely watching whether the stock can regain momentum and move back toward the ₹1,500 mark, though near-term sentiment remains cautious as the stock continues to trade below important resistance levels.

Reliance shares gained about 1.5% during the session, touching a high of ₹1,410.90 on the BSE. The stock had initially reacted positively in the previous trading session as well after the news broke, although it later trimmed gains to end 1.3% lower.

Despite Thursday’s bounce, Reliance shares have faced pressure in recent months. The stock has declined about 10% on a year-to-date basis, although it is still up more than 11.5% over the past year. It has slipped 3.2% in the past two months and nearly 10% over the past three months.

Reliance share target: Is ₹1500 next?

From a technical perspective, analysts say Reliance is currently going through a consolidation phase after the recent correction.

Sachin Gupta, Vice President – Research at Choice Broking, said the stock remains under pressure from a technical standpoint as it trades below key moving averages.

“Reliance is currently going through a corrective phase, with the stock trading around the ₹1,400– ₹1,410 range. From a structural standpoint, the stock remains below its key moving averages including the 50-day and 200-day SMA, indicating bearish sentiment across timeframes,” Gupta said.

Gupta noted that the downside risk appears limited in the near term because the stock has a strong demand zone around ₹1,370– ₹1,350, where buyers have historically stepped in. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 48, suggesting neutral momentum rather than an oversold condition.

On shorter timeframes, he said the charts are beginning to show early signs of stabilisation.

“For a sustainable reversal, the stock needs to reclaim the immediate resistance near ₹1,435. A breakout above this level could push the price toward ₹1,470 and ₹1,500, while failure to hold ₹1,370 may trigger deeper correction toward ₹1,300,” Gupta added.

According to him, the formation of a Bullish Engulfing pattern on hourly charts and rising call option open interest near the ₹1,400 strike indicates that traders may be positioning for a potential short-term rebound.

Fundamental outlook also remains positive

Despite the recent correction, several analysts remain optimistic about the long-term outlook for Reliance Industries, citing improving valuations and multiple business growth triggers.

Brokerage JM Financial has maintained a Buy rating with a target price of ₹1,730, implying an upside potential of around 22% from current levels.

“We reiterate BUY (unchanged TP of INR 1,730) on comfortable valuations after the recent correction, as share price adequately factors concern around near-term weakness in retail business EBITDA growth on account of ramp-up in quick commerce business,” the brokerage said.

JM Financial believes that the market is currently underestimating the long-term growth potential of Reliance’s digital business.

The brokerage expects EBITDA in the digital segment to compound at 15–16% over the next two to three years, driven largely by 10–11% growth in average revenue per user (ARPU). As a result, the firm projects earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14–16% annually over the next three to five years.

One of the major potential catalysts for the stock could be the expected IPO of Jio, which analysts believe may take place in the coming months once regulatory norms for large public issues are finalised. A potential telecom tariff hike after the listing could also boost profitability.

The brokerage also expects Reliance’s balance sheet to strengthen over time as capital expenditure moderates and internal cash generation improves. Annual capex is projected to remain around ₹1.2 trillion– ₹1.4 trillion, significantly lower than ₹2.3 trillion recorded in FY23.

JM Financial added that Reliance’s commitment to maintaining net debt to EBITDA below 1x—which currently stands at 0.6x as of the end of the December 2025 quarter—provides additional comfort for investors.

With strong long-term growth drivers, improving valuations and fresh global partnerships such as the Texas refinery project, Reliance Industries could remain a closely watched stock for investors seeking opportunities amid market volatility.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.