Reliance share price trades lower: Should you buy RIL stock ahead of Q4 results?

Reliance share price declined by about 1 per cent in morning trade on the BSE on Thursday, April 24, a day ahead of its March quarter (Q4) results. Reliance share price opened at ₹1,298.65 against its previous close of ₹1,299.90 and dropped 0.7 per cent to an intraday low of ₹1,290.50. Around 11:05 AM, Reliance share price traded 0.38 per cent lower at ₹1,294.95. Equity benchmark Sensex was 0.23 per cent down at 79,934 at that time.

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) have been under pressure over the last year, falling 11 per cent. RIL stock hit a 52-week high of ₹1,608.95 on July 8 last year and a 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 recently on April 7 this year.

RIL Q4 results preview

Experts expect the oil-to-telecom-to-retail behemoth to report mixed numbers with tepid growth in the telecom and retail business. However, the oil and gas segment may see some pressure due to higher crude oil prices.

"Reliance earnings are expected to remain stable. However, operating profit may come under pressure due to higher crude oil prices. The oil and gas business could stay flat, while Jio and the retail segment may post some growth. Overall, it is likely to be a mixed and stable quarter, with no major surprises expected. Markets are pricing in a tepid Q4 performance," said Avinash Gorakshakar, the head of research at Profitmart Securities.

Gorakshakar believes investor focus will be on the outlook for the April–June quarter (Q1FY26) of the current financial year, especially since crude oil prices have recently declined.

Investors will be keen to assess how the fall in crude prices could improve refining margins in the oil and gas business. Additionally, management commentary on the growth outlook for the telecom and retail segments will be closely watched, Gorakshakar said.

According to brokerage firm Motilal Oswal Financial Services, RIL's consolidated EBITDA may remain flat year-on-year (YoY) at ₹43,500 crore, while standalone EBITDA may fall 24 per cent YoY to ₹15,210 crore.

"Net sales may inch up 1.8 per cent YoY, EBITDA margin may come at 18.1 per cent compared to 18 per cent YoY, while adjusted PAT may fall 5.1 per cent YoY," said Motilal Oswal.

Motilal said further clarity on ₹75,000 crore announcements in the new energy business, growth in retail store additions, and any pricing action in telecom are the key monitorables.

Should you buy RIL stock ahead of Q4 results?

According to Gorakshakar, investors should wait for the Q4 results and management commentary before taking fresh positions in the stock, given the prevailing market uncertainty.

"While the ongoing trade war remains a significant overhang, the evolving situation following the Pahalgam terror attack is another factor that investors should not ignore. Wait for the company's outlook for the next quarter and the year ahead," said Gorakshakar.

Technical experts, on the other hand, highlight some key resistances for the stock.

According to Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, Reliance’s chart appears promising as it has consistently held its strong support zone of ₹1,175– ₹1,200 in recent weeks. Currently trading near ₹1,290, the stock faces an immediate resistance at the R3 level of the yearly Camarilla pivots.

"Investors are advised to accumulate the stock gradually in the ₹1,250– ₹1,300 range, targeting ₹1,450, with a stop loss on a daily close below ₹1,175," said Patel.

"For traders, a daily close above ₹1,325 would signal a breakout, offering a higher probability for further upside. This setup presents a favourable risk-reward opportunity for both short-term traders and medium-term investors," Patel said.

Mandar Bhojane, an equity research analyst at Choice Broking, underscored that Reliance Industries is encountering strong resistance around the ₹1,300– ₹1,320 zone, which coincides with the 200 EMA, marking it as a critical supply area.

Historically, the stock has faced multiple rejections in this region, indicating persistent selling pressure.

However, Bhojane underscored that the price is also showing strong support around ₹1,270– ₹1,260, forming the lower bound of the current consolidation range.

"As long as the stock maintains levels above ₹1,260, the technical outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish. A sustained move above ₹1,300 could potentially lead to a retest of the ₹1,320– ₹1,330 zone," said Bhojane.

"A decisive breakout above ₹1,330, backed by significant volume, would confirm bullish momentum and open the path for a rally towards ₹1,380 and ₹1,400 in the short term. Until such a breakout occurs, the stock is expected to continue consolidating within the ₹1,260– ₹1,330 range. From a positional trading perspective, any dip toward the ₹1,200– ₹1,260 support zone presents a buying opportunity, where the risk-reward setup is favourable for long positions," Bhojane said.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.