Reliance share price crashes 4%, extends fall to 2nd day amid US-Venezuela crisis— is it an opportunity to buy?

A day after falling nearly 1%, Reliance's share price crashed 4% on the BSE on Tuesday, January 6. Reliance Industries (RIL) share price opened at ₹1,575.55 against its previous close of ₹1,577.45 and fell as much as 5.1% to an intraday low of ₹1,497.05. The stock finally closed 4.42% down at ₹1,507.70.

Shares of India's biggest company in terms of market capitalisation have been under pressure after the US attacked Venezuela on Saturday, a major oil-producing company worldwide, and captured its President, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife. Venezuela reportedly holds the largest known oil reserves, according to media reports.

There are concerns that if the US-Venezuela conflict escalates further and causes volatility in crude oil prices, it may strain the margins of oil refiners.

Meanwhile, Reliance on Tuesday refuted reports that three vessels laden with Russian oil are on their way to its Jamnagar refinery.

The company in a post on social media platform X called the report “blatantly untrue”. It added that the refinery has not received any Russian oil cargo in the past three weeks, nor is it expecting any Russian crude oil deliveries in January.

Is it the right time to buy Reliance shares?

Reliance shares strongly outperformed the Sensex in 2025, jumping over 29% in 2025 compared to a 9% rise in the Sensex. The blue-chip stock hit an all-time high of ₹1,611.20 in the previous session on January 5 before facing selling pressure.

Experts say the US-Venezuela conflict is a short-term sentimental headwind for Reliance shares, as the company is diverse and has major growth drivers in terms of Jio and Retail, which remain insulated from crude volatility.

Moreover, if crude oil prices rise due to the Venezuela factor, it could be even positive for the company.

"Elevated crude prices can be neutral to mildly negative for standalone refining margins if driven purely by supply side risk, as feedstock costs rise. Yet US-Venezuela tensions typically widen heavy sour crude differentials, which favour complex refiners like Reliance that can process discounted grades and optimise crude slates," said Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities.

Srivastava added that any disruption in Venezuelan exports could tighten global product balances, which would support refining and marketing margins.

"Petrochemical margins may face pressure if crude-linked feedstock costs rise faster than end product realisations, though Reliance’s integrated model and export orientation provide partial insulation," said Srivastava.

Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, has a positive view on the stock. He has a buy call on the stock with an immediate long-term target price of ₹1,625.

"Short-term fluctuations are possible, especially on news flow. However, we believe any mild corrections could offer a good opportunity to buy the stock. We maintain a buy recommendation and view the dips as an opportunity rather than a risk for long-term investors," said Mishra.

Mishra anticipates a gradual recovery in the O2C (oil-to-chemicals) segment, supported by stability in the oil and gas environment.

"News flow or rumours may continue to cause short-term volatility. However, from a long-term perspective, we remain constructive given the visible improvement in the company’s underlying business. The key driver is the strong growth momentum in the consumer-facing businesses. This is being led by rising Jio penetration, improving ARPU, and higher customer engagement," said Mishra.

Abhinav Tiwari, a research analyst at Bonanza, pointed out that from a fundamental standpoint, the fresh correction in Reliance shares appears sentiment-driven rather than earnings-driven.

He said such moves are common in large stocks, where headline-driven news can trigger swift de-risking by institutional investors and short-term traders, even when the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged.

"There is no change in refinery operations, margins, cash flows, or crude procurement strategy. Importantly, Reliance's strength in strong cash generation from O2C, steady growth in Jio and retail, and long-term optionality from new energy and digital infrastructure remains intact," said Tiwari.

"Assuming no further adverse regulatory or geopolitical developments, the stock’s decline should be viewed as a near-term volatility event, not a deterioration in fundamentals," Tiwari said.

While fundamental factors indicate the stock remains a long-term buy, technical experts expect some correction in the near term.

Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart, pointed out that Reliance Industries has witnessed a sharp corrective move after failing to sustain above the recent swing high near the ₹1,600–1,620 zone.

Gour said the stock has closed around ₹1,523, slipping below the short-term moving averages (9-DMA and 20-DMA) and testing the rising 50-DMA, which currently acts as an immediate support area.

"The presence of the 50-DMA and VWAP near the ₹1,520–1,530 band makes this zone technically important; a decisive break down below it could open the door for a deeper retracement towards the ₹1,480–1,460 region, where the 100-DMA is placed," said Gour.

"Overall, the broader trend remains positive as long as the stock holds above the 200-DMA, but in the short term, Reliance may remain range-bound to weak, with resistance now seen near ₹1,570–1,590. Fresh strength is likely only on a sustained move back above these levels with improving volume," said Gour.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.