Reliance shares up 5% in February so far amid India-US trade deal— Time to buy or book profits?

Reliance shares have been enjoying healthy buying interest this month so far. Reliance Industries (RIL) share price climbed by nearly 1% in morning trade on the BSE on Monday, February 9, rising for the second consecutive session. On a monthly scale, the stock has risen by almost 5% in February so far after suffering a significant loss of 11% in January.

RIL shares hit their record high of ₹1,611.20 on January 5 this year. Experts appear bullish on the stock for the long term due to the company's bright growth prospects.

The stock is expected to see a healthy short-term uptrend, too, as market sentiment improves following an India-US trade deal.

"The India-US trade deal is positive for this heavyweight stock because the overhang was largely due to this event, especially in comparison to our neighbouring countries. The deal has turned out to be positive, though only the initial details are out," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

On January 16, the Mukesh Ambani-owned oil-to-telecom-to-retail conglomerate reported a nearly 2% year-on-year (YoY) rise in its consolidated profit to ₹22,167 crore for Q3FY26.

Consolidated revenue from operations rose 10.51% YoY to ₹2,69,496 crore. Consolidated EBITDA rose 6.1% YoY to ₹50,932 crore, but EBITDA margin shrank by 70 bps YoY to 17.3% for Q3FY26.

Is it the right time to buy Reliance shares?

Experts appear largely bullish on the stock. Mishra of Religare Broking has a buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of ₹1,627.

Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, has a positive view on the stock. She pointed out that Reliance represents a rare blend of scale, strategic optionality, and execution capability across multiple economic cycles.

"Its diversified portfolio across energy, digital services, retail, media and emerging new energy positions the company as a core proxy for India’s structural growth story. The sustained capex intensity in FY26 reflects a deliberate transition from legacy cash-generating businesses toward future engines of value creation, particularly in new energy, digital infrastructure, and AI-led services," Srivastava said.

Srivastava underscored that Jio Platforms continues to strengthen its leadership with rising ARPU, deepening 5G adoption, and expanding broadband reach, which enhances monetisation potential while reinforcing high entry barriers.

The collaboration with Google on AI meaningfully elevates Jio’s positioning, enabling Reliance to embed AI capabilities across consumer and enterprise offerings at scale, potentially opening new revenue pools over the next decade.

Srivastava added that Reliance Retail remains a formidable growth pillar, benefiting from unmatched distribution, rapid store expansion, and rising consumer engagement, with hyper-local delivery and omnichannel capabilities improving unit economics and customer stickiness.

"While risks such as macroeconomic slowdown and upstream volatility persist, Reliance’s balance sheet strength, integrated ecosystem, and ability to pivot capital toward high-return opportunities mitigate downside risks," said Srivastava.

"Overall, Reliance Industries is evolving from a cyclical conglomerate into a platform-driven enterprise, offering long-term investors a combination of steady cash flows, emerging growth opportunities, and sustained compounding potential aligned with India’s economic and digital transformation," Srivastava said.

Reliance share target price

Not only fundamentals, but technical indicators also suggest the stock is poised for a healthy upside.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, highlighted that Reliance shares are currently trading in a consolidation phase, caught between its 200-day exponential moving average (200 DEMA) and 200-day simple moving average (200 DSMA), as seen on the chart. This indicates a temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers after recent volatility.

Patel said an unfilled gap in the ₹1,390–1,395 zone is likely to act as a strong near-term support, as gap areas often attract buying interest during pullbacks.

Adding to the positive bias, the MACD has delivered a bullish crossover from extremely low levels — a pattern not seen since November 2024 — signalling a potential shift in momentum. Such crossovers at depressed levels generally suggest strengthening upside probability and the possibility of trend resumption.

"Considering these technical factors, the outlook appears constructive. Investors may consider accumulating the stock in the ₹1,390–1,430 range, with an upside target of ₹1,530 and a stop loss placed at ₹1,360 on a closing basis to manage risk effectively," said Patel.

Aakash Shah, a research analyst at Choice Broking, too, has a positive view on the stock.

Shah underscored that Reliance's price action shows a recovery attempt with the stock reclaiming the 20 EMA and stabilising near the 50 EMA, reflecting improving short-term momentum.

The 100 EMA is positioned slightly above the current price and is acting as an intermediate resistance zone. Sustained acceptance above this level would be an important signal for broader bullish continuation, said Shah.

The moving average structure is beginning to flatten, suggesting that bearish momentum is losing strength. RSI has rebounded back above the 50 zone, indicating improving momentum and early accumulation behaviour after the recent decline.

"Structurally, the recent swing low near ₹1,380 now acts as a critical demand zone. As long as price holds above this base, the recovery structure remains valid and favours continuation toward the overhead supply and resistance zone near ₹1,580," said Shah.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.