The rupee (INR) fell sharply today against the US dollar (USD) today, ending at over 6-month low against US dollar. The rupee opened today at 71.51 a dollar before sliding to 71.80 at day's low. The rupee closed at 71.71 as compared to Monday's close of 71.43. Outflows from Indian stock markets, weak domestic stock markets and a rise in global crude prices weighed on the rupee. Indian stocks market indices Sensex and Nifty ended lower today, led by a fall in financial and consumer stocks.
Here are 5 things to know about INR Vs USD trade today:
1) "In the last 26 days, INR (rupee) has fallen by 5.15%, mainly due to hefty selling from FIIs (foreign institutional investors) who withdrew nearly ₹24,000 crore during the same period from Indian markets," said Shrikant Chouhan, head of technical research at Kotak Securities.
2) Global oil prices have rebounded to $60 a barrel on expectations of more stimulus measures in China and Germany. After a tumultuous first half of August when investors dumped equities and poured their money into government debt and other safe havens, some calm has returned to markets this week. Higher crude oil prices put pressure on India's trade deficit and thus the rupee.
3) India's trade deficit narrowed to $13.4 billion in July, much lower than monthly run rate of about $15 billion over the past three months, largely led by lower oil and gold imports. But Edelweiss analysts expect trade deficit to rise in subsequent months. "Exports outlook remains clouded amid ongoing global trade tensions and the weak global economy. Trade deficit could rise towards the $14–15bn range as gold and oil imports normalise," the analysts said in a note.
4) Rupee traders would be looking ahead to US Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole seminar for clues to future interest rates and this weekend’s G7 summit. The Fed's minutes from its July policy meeting are also due this week. Traders mostly expect a 25 basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yields.
5) The broad rise of the US dollar also weighed on the rupee. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, hit a more than three-week high on Tuesday, boosted by slightly higher Treasury yields. (With Agency Inputs)