A surge in global oil prices pushed the Indian rupee lower
Saudi Arabia is the second largest supplier of crude to India
The Indian rupee today fell sharply against the US dollar as oil prices skyrocketed after drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Other Asian currencies were also weaker against the US dollar. The rupee fell to as much as 71.67 a dollar as compared to its previous close of 70.92. Oil prices today surged to four-month highs after weekend attacks on crude facilities at key producer Saudi Arabia sparked supply fears. Opening at 71.57, the rupee traded in the range of 71.41 to 71.67, before closing at 71.59 a dollar.
Here are 5 things to know about rupee dollar trade today:
1) "Given that India relies heavily on crude imports to meet its energy needs, rupee is likely to underperform. We could see a knee-jerk sell-off in domestic assets. Saudi Arabia is the second largest supplier of crude to India after UAE," forex advisory firm IFA Global said in a note.
2) Oil prices today surged as much as 20%, its biggest intra-day percentage gain since the start of the Gulf War in 1991, after an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities on Saturday shut in the equivalent of 5% of global supply. A $10 per barrel spike in crude prices worsens India's trade deficit by approximately $1.5 billion a month and pushes up consumer price inflation by 0.3%," IFA Global added. Higher trade deficit puts downward pressure on the rupee. Indian stock market index Sensex ended over 250 points lower today.
Indian equities are particularly sensitive to changes in crude prices and USD-INR rates, Yes Securities said.
3) While oil prices have surged, the key is the duration of the outage, say analysts. "Though Saudi officials have expressed optimism that normalcy would be restored soon, a sudden flare-up in Middle East geopolitical tensions will get built into the risk premium across assets," IFA Global added.
"Further action on crude prices will be a function of how quickly the full capacity is restored and how coordinated the global efforts to release strategic reserves is," HDFC Securities said in a note.
"Saudi Arabia has millions of barrels stored in locations around the world, which they can draw down to replace the lost production. A rally could also be tempered if the U.S. and other countries release oil from their strategic reserves to ease the shortfall. The Trump administration has said it is ready to deploy the nation’s emergency oil reserves and help stabilise markets if needed," HDFC Securities added.
4) Also on focus this week will be US Federal Reserve's policy announcement. The US central bank is expected to cut its interest rate but markets have scaled back their expectations of aggressive cuts by the Fed, IFA Global added.
Most analysts expect a quarter-point rate reduction, which would be the central bank's second such cut after lowering rates in July for the first time since 2008. Lower US interest rates helps emerging market currencies like rupee.
5) The India government on Saturday announced more measures to stimulate the housing sector and boost exports. The increased geopolitical risk concerns overshadows the measures Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced over the weekend to revive economic growth from a six-year low.
The rupee is likely to remain volatile against the US dollar this week amid monetary policy decision from Fed, BoE and BoJ, say analysts.
"With US accusing the Iranian government of orchestrating the attack and Iran in turn threatening war, there by further destabilising the region at large and further impacting future supplies, the oil prices are expected to remain firm," said Pritam Kumar Patnaik, head of commodities at Reliance Commodities. So far this year the rupee is down over 2% against the US dollar.
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