SBI, DMart to Bajaj Finance: Axis Securities lists 15 stocks to buy, pegs Nifty 50 target at 28,100 for 2026

The past year was a challenging one for the Indian equity market, as it underperformed global and emerging markets for the first time since the Covid-19 era. Yet, analysts at Axis Securities believe that most of the significant events are behind us, and the majority of the negatives are already factored into the price.

The brokerage maintained its base case Nifty target at 28,100 for December 2026 by valuing the index at 20x on Dec’27 earnings. Earnings upgrade starting Q3FY26 onwards remains an upside risk to the target.

Its bullish outlook on the index stems from a robust macro setup, as it believes it serves "as a stable haven amidst global economic volatility".

"We remain confident in India’s long-term growth story, supported by its favourable economic structure, rising capex, and the consumption boost from the recent Union Budget and GST 2.0 reforms, driving credit growth for banks. This is expected to support double-digit earnings growth, ensuring that Indian equities can deliver strong double-digit returns over the next 2-3 years," it opined.

Stocks to buy

Among the top stocks to buy, Axis Securities recommended HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Avenue Supermarts, State Bank of India, Max Healthcare, Kirloskar Brothers, Kalpataru Projects, APL Apollo Tubes, Mahanagar Gas, Inox Wind, Prestige Estates, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank, Chalet Hotels, and Sansera Engineering for up to 54% returns.

Here's the rationale behind the brokerage's bullish view on these stocks:

Bajaj Finance | Buy | Target Price: ₹1200 | Upside: 22%

Axis Securities expects Bajaj Finance to continue its growth trajectory, reporting a consistent ~24–25% CAGR AUM growth over the medium term, with growth resuming from FY27 onwards, on contribution from the core existing products and a further push from the scale-up of the new products.

The blue-chip stock is expected to deliver a strong AUM/NII/earnings growth of 25/25/24% CAGR over FY27–28E, driven by steady NIMs, operating leverage driving cost ratio improvement, and downward-trending credit costs backed by asset quality improvement.

It further expects Bajaj Finance to deliver a RoA/RoE of 4.4–4.5% / 19–22% over FY26–28E, broadly in line with the management’s long-term guidance.

State Bank of India | Buy | Target Price: ₹1135 | Upside: 16%

SBI’s performance has been the best amongst the larger banks, and the bank remains well-poised to sustain its performance, supported by the management’s focus on deepening its liability franchise, allocating capital to higher RoRWA assets, maintaining a disciplined pricing approach, and leveraging technology to drive operating efficiency, opined Axis Securities.

The outperformance on NIMs in Q2, with the trend reversing earlier than expected, provides a cushion to the bank’s 1% RoA delivery. "Barring the one-time impact of the stake sale in Yes Bank, SBI’s RoA has remained at 1%+. The bank is making concentrated efforts to contain Opex growth by focusing on improving productivity and maintaining the C-I ratio," it added.

HDFC Bank | Buy | Target Price: ₹1170 | Upside: 18%

HDFC Bank has been consistently performing on its guidance in its endeavour to revert to its pre-merger levels across metrics, and its execution capabilities remain strong, said Axis Securities.

With LDR at a <100% level, the bank will look to accelerate growth momentum in FY26 to match systemic growth. Further acceleration of growth in FY27E, while maintaining a strong deposit growth momentum, should enable the private lender to bring down its LDR to sub-90%, opined the brokerage.

"The margin compression seen in H1 is expected to reverse going into H2, supported by deposit repricing and the CRR cut driving exit margins higher. The NIM pressures would be adequately offset by controlled Opex and benign credit costs, enabling HDFCB to deliver RoA/RoE of 1.8–1.9% / 15–16% over FY26–28E," it added.

Bharti Airtel | Buy | Target Price: ₹2530 | Upside: 20%

Axis Securities said that it has maintained a BUY rating on the stock, driven by the company’s superior margins, impressive subscriber growth, and increased 4G conversions. It only sees competitors eating market share, resulting in loss of sustainable revenue, as a risk.

Avenue Supermarts | Buy | Target Price: ₹4960 | Upside: 31%

D-Mart has faced several challenges over the past few years, such as a subdued demand environment, longer gestation periods for new stores and increasing competition from organised and online players.

However, the company has undertaken several initiatives to address these challenges, such as changes in leadership to revamp the slowing GM&A category, focusing on improving profitability in D-Mart Ready through a gradual expansion strategy, and targeting a 10–20% store addition on an existing base of 432 stores, which is a step in the right direction, said Axis Securities.

The overall improving consumer demand, supported by stable macroeconomics and a strong festive outlook in H2FY26, is expected to further support these initiatives and drive growth in high-margin general merchandise and apparel categories, supported by GST cuts, it added.

Max Healthcare | Buy | Target Price: ₹1400 | Upside scope: 34%

Management reiterated guidance of 6–7% ARPOB growth in mature hospitals, supported by higher case complexity and an improving clinical mix, alongside sustained occupancy of around 80%. Meanwhile, developing hospitals are expected to ramp up gradually.

The recent CGHS rate revision is expected to generate a revenue uplift of over ₹200 crore once fully implemented across CGHS and CGHS-linked schemes such as ECHS, the brokerage added.

The full benefit, particularly from the newly introduced “super-specialty hospital” category, is expected to materialise from FY27 onward, opined Axis Securities as it maintained a bullish view on Max Healthcare.

Prestige Estates | Buy | Target Price: ₹2000 | Upside: 25%

Prestige Estates continues to demonstrate a strong growth trajectory, underpinned by sustained demand across key residential markets and steady expansion in its annuity portfolio, said Axis Securities.

Backed by healthy launch momentum and robust collections, the company remains well-positioned to exceed its FY26 pre-sales guidance of ₹27,000 crore and the planned launch pipeline of ₹43,000 crore GDV, estimates the brokerage.

"On the annuity front, near-term completions in BKC and Mahalaxmi, along with a robust 24 mn sq. ft. development pipeline, will significantly enhance rental income over the next few years. Strong operating cash flows and disciplined capital allocation are expected to keep the net debt-to-equity ratio comfortably below 0.5x, providing ample flexibility for future growth," it opined.

APL Apollo Tubes | Buy | Target Price: ₹2100 | Upside: 10%

With the growth drivers intact, Axis Securities believes APL Apollo Tubes is well-positioned to capture India’s infrastructure growth. It projects an EBITDA CAGR of 29% over FY25–27E. The stock is trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 38x.

Mahanagar Gas | Buy | Target Price: ₹1540 | Upside: 36%

Axis Securities values the company using the DCF method, considering a WACC of 11.5%. "We forecast cash flows for 15 years and, beyond that, use a terminal growth rate of 3.0% to arrive at the terminal value. We add net cash and investments at a 30% discount to arrive at our target price of ₹1,540 per share," it said.

Ujjivan SFB | Buy | Target Price: ₹65 | Upside: 23%

Ujjivan Small Finance Bank (SFB) has emerged as the strongest through the current MFI downcycle, while maintaining asset quality with an unabated focus on collections and controlling forward flows, noted Axis Securities.

"With stress in most states having peaked and reverting towards normalcy, alongside stress subsiding in certain states, UJSFB will look to accelerate growth momentum," it added.

The brokerage expects the SFB's RoA/RoE to improve considerably to 1.7–1.9% / 15–18% over FY27–28E, supported by: improved growth momentum, scope to improve cost ratios through focused productivity gains, lower credit costs, and improving profitability in secured businesses.

Chalet Hotels | Buy | Target Price: 1120 | Upside: 29%

The hospitality industry’s upcycle is anticipated to be long and sustained as Horwath HTL expects demand to grow at over 10% annually over the next 3–4 years, with supply continuing to lag.

Upcoming events, such as the World Cup, could further boost occupancies in the coming quarters. "The leisure segment is already a significant driver in the hotel industry, and these factors are expected to benefit the sector in the quarters ahead," opined Axis Securities.

Inox Wind | Buy | Target Price: ₹190 | Upside: 54%

Axis Securities assigned a target P/E multiple of 29x to its Sep’27 EPS estimate. After adjusting for the minority stake in Inox Green Energy Services Ltd and Resco Global (~8%), it arrived at a target price of ₹190 per share.

With a robust order pipeline, cost-efficient execution, and improved profitability, IWL remains well placed to capitalise on India’s accelerating renewable energy buildout, it opined.

Kirloskar Brothers | Buy | Target Price: ₹2330 | Upside: 45%

With sustained demand from key end markets and a robust order book, KBL remains on track to achieve double-digit revenue growth in the medium term, said the brokerage.

"The current order book provides strong revenue visibility, with the execution cycle ranging from a few weeks to as much as 18 months. Order intake is also expected to remain strong. Additionally, the focus on cost optimisation and an improved product mix should support continued margin expansion."

Sansera Engineering | Buy | Target Price: ₹1950 | Upside: 16%

Given factors such as: a) a higher sales mix in Non-Auto ICE components, b) increased premiumisation trend, c) a focused approach on improving margin trends, d) strong ability to generate operating cash flows, and e) capacity expansion plans, Axis Securities expects revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 12%, 14%, and 21%, respectively, over FY26E–28E.

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