Sensex Expiry Today Prediction 10 Sept: Check immediate support and resistance | What should traders do?

Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were little changed as an intensifying Middle East conflict pushed crude oil prices above the $100-per-barrel mark. Investors are also awaiting key US data ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.

The Sensex fell 51 points, or 0.1%, to hit an intraday low of 74,666.10, while the Nifty declined 27 points, or 0.1%, to a day's low of 23,404.35.

Both indices settled at three-month lows in the previous session as Brent crude oil crossed $100. The Nifty and Sensex have now declined in seven of the last eight sessions, losing around 3.1% each during this period. Higher oil prices have also kept investors nervous ahead of US inflation data, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's rate decision next week, according to two traders.

Adding to geopolitical concerns, Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers in the largest attacks on shipping in the six-month-old conflict.

V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, said the market remains vulnerable to further correction as macroeconomic fundamentals continue to deteriorate. He pointed to Brent crude above $101 and the US 10-year yield at 4.83%, while noting that the probability of a Fed rate hike this month has increased.

“Technically the market is vulnerable to further correction, and the fundamental macro trends continue to deteriorate. Brent crude has spiked above $101 and the U.S. 10-year yield has moved up to 4.83%,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited.

Vijayakumar also said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are deteriorating and that the market is paying little attention to Donald Trump's claim that the war will end immediately after the US mid-term election. Although India's forex reserves remain comfortable and the current account deficit is under control, he warned that crude remaining above $100 for an extended period could affect India's GDP growth this year, with consequences for corporate earnings as well.

Overall, the market bias remains weak, with the broader trend continuing to favour sellers despite the possibility of some short-term relief following the recent decline.

Moreover, today is Sensex expiry day, making Thursday's session particularly important for traders because volatility can rise around the expiry of index derivatives. At the same time, institutional selling has added to pressure across the broader market.

Sensex Expiry Today Prediction: Technical Outlook

With the Sensex weekly expiry adding another layer of volatility to an already weak market, traders are closely watching immediate support and resistance levels. Technical analysts expect the broader bearish structure to remain intact unless key resistance zones are reclaimed.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said the market continues to form lower highs and lower lows on daily and intraday charts. He added that a bearish candle on the daily chart supports the possibility of further weakness from current levels.

“For day traders, 75,200-75,500 will act as immediate resistance zones. As long as the market trades below these levels, weak sentiment is likely to persist,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

Chouhan said that on the downside, the Sensex could slide towards 74,300-74,000. On the other hand, a close above 75,500 on the Sensex could lift the indices towards 75,900-76,100, respectively.

Meanwhile, Shilpa Rout, Senior Analyst - Derivates at PL Capital expects Sensex is likely to remain volatile around the weekly expiry, with the 74,000–73,2000 zone emerging as the immediate support area, while 75,500–75,800 remains the key resistance band. A sustained move above 75,800 would improve the near-term setup, whereas a break below 74,000 could extend the correction towards 73,500.

“With crude oil above $100 and geopolitical uncertainty keeping risk appetite subdued, we expect heightened two-way volatility during expiry. The recently introduced Closing Auction Session could further amplify last-minute swings, particularly given the relatively thinner liquidity in Sensex derivatives. Traders should therefore remain cautious with aggressive option-selling strategies around the closing period,” he added.

Moreover, the 74,000–74,200 support / 75,500–75,800 resistance framework is consistent with current technical readings, while the elevated expiry volatility is particularly relevant after the extreme moves seen during the last Sensex expiry, noted the expert.

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President — Technical Research at PL Capital, said the Sensex had crashed heavily and breached the 75,500 zone, with bias and sentiment weakening in anticipation of a further slide in the coming sessions. With the index precariously placed, she identified the next major support near 73,400, which needs to hold; failure to sustain this level could make the trend weak.

On the upside, Parekh said the Sensex would need to move past its 100-period moving average at 76,800 to improve the bias.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.