Sensex Crash on March 30 Highlights: ₹9 lk cr eroded, Sensex tanks 1635 pts, Nifty down 2%; rupee crosses 95/$ mark

Market Wrap by Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking -

"Markets witnessed a sharp sell-off on the monthly expiry day, with the Nifty 50 opening gap-down and slipping below the 22,500 mark amid weak global cues. The index remained under sustained selling pressure throughout the session, with only brief intraday recovery attempts, and eventually closed near the day’s lower band around 22,331 levels, down approximately 2.14%.

Sectorally, the decline was led by banking, financials, realty, and auto stocks, while select defensive and metal names showed relative resilience. Broader markets mirrored the weakness, with midcap and smallcap indices declining in tandem by 2.5%–3%, reflecting broad-based risk aversion.

The downturn was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which dashed hopes of de-escalation and pushed crude oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflation and macro stability for oil-importing economies like India. Weak global cues, including declines across Asian and US markets, coupled with continued foreign institutional outflows and a weakening rupee, further weighed on sentiment. Additionally, rising bond yields and concerns over tighter financial conditions exerted pressure, particularly on rate-sensitive sectors such as banking and auto.

From a technical perspective, the Nifty has declined over 11% during March. With the onset of the new series, it will be crucial to watch whether the index holds its long-term moving average, i.e., the 200-week EMA, placed around the 21,900 mark. Persistent weakness in key sectors—especially banking and financials—along with elevated volatility, as indicated by India VIX hovering near 28, suggests continued downside risk. Any pullback is likely to face resistance in the 22,600–23,000 zone, and traders are advised to remain cautious and prioritize risk management until stability returns."

Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse said:

"The markets remained under pressure for yet another session, with Nifty continuing its lower top–lower bottom formation and slipping below the 22,500 mark. The overall structure remains weak, with immediate support placed at 22,000, followed by 21,700, while resistance is seen around the 22,700 level. Meanwhile, India VIX surged by nearly 4%, approaching the 28 level and hitting a ten-month high.

This spike in volatility remains a key concern and needs to cool off for bullish momentum to return. Momentum indicators and oscillators on both the daily and weekly charts continue to signal a sell, indicating a prevailing bearish undertone. However, given the recent sharp correction, the possibility of a strong pullback cannot be ruled out."

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said:

"The Nifty continues to move lower as the bears appear to be tireless fighters, with statements from the US and Iran providing support to the sellers. The Nifty has slipped toward its previous swing low on the daily chart, retracing almost 90% of the previous rise from the April 2025 low to the February 2026 high.

While the Nifty seems to be finding support just above the rising trendline on the daily chart, another interesting formation is creating a silver lining — a hidden positive divergence on the daily RSI. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if the Nifty stages a decent recovery from Wednesday.

On the lower end, 22,200 is likely to act as a crucial support level, from where a significant rally might emerge. The view of a bullish reversal will be negated if the index slips below 22,200."

Silver prices on MCX rebounded more than 2.5% from the day’s low on Monday, March 30, as investors stepped in to buy the metal on dips. However, the upside remained limited due to a stronger dollar and a sharp rise in energy prices, which heightened inflation concerns and further reduced expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

On MCX, silver price recovered 2.7% to ₹2,31,856 per kg from its day's low of ₹2,25,763 per kg, while gold price also rebounded 3.5% to its day's high of ₹1,49,250 per 10 grams from day's low of ₹1,44,212. Both precious metals were in the red in early deals.

In international markets, spot silver rose 1.8% to $70.81 per ounce, while spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,529.58 per ounce as of 0913 GMT, after gaining more than 1% earlier. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.8% to $4,558.30.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments, said:

"Amid unresolved global tensions, rising oil prices, and continued FII outflows, the market ended the final trading session of the current financial year on a cautious note. Banking stocks were among the key laggards following the RBI’s new restrictions on banks’ foreign exchange positions aimed at stabilizing the rupee, which led to sharp declines across major private and public sector lenders. While valuations now appear more favourable after the recent correction, the trajectory of earnings revisions remains the key determinant of market direction. Continued volatility in oil prices and rupee weakness may exert pressure on input costs, increasing the risk of near-term earnings downgrades."

Sensex closed 1635 points or 2.22% lower at 71,947.55, while Nifty lost 488 points or 2.14% to settle at 22,331.40.

Asian markets largely ended lower on Monday as investors remained uneasy over surging oil prices and the risk of a further escalation in the ongoing U.S. war with Iran. European markets, however, traded modestly higher in early deals, while U.S. stock futures also pointed to a firmer opening.

In early European trade, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2% to 7,716.30, Germany’s DAX gained 0.1% to 22,344.39, and Britain’s FTSE 100 advanced 0.8% to 10,041.91. U.S. futures were also in the green, with Dow futures climbing 0.4% to 45,625.00 and S&P 500 futures rising 0.5% to 6,445.00.

Across Asia, sentiment remained weak. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8% to close at 51,885.85, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7% to 8,461.00. South Korea’s Kospi declined 3.0% to 5,277.30, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.8% to 24,750.79, and China’s Shanghai Composite recovered in the latter half of the session to end 0.2% higher at 3,923.29.

The Indian rupee fell to its all-time low on Monday, finding only fleeting relief from the Indian central bank's decision to tighten limits on banks' FX positions, with analysts noting that fundamentals remain skewed against the currency.

The rupee weakened past the 95 per dollar mark for the first time to 95.20 per dollar, down 0.3% on day.

Worries over elevated oil prices also kept Indian stocks under pressure with the Nifty 50 down 2% and on course for its worst monthly drop since March 2020. (Reuters)

India's 10-year benchmark bond yield extended its rise in afternoon trades to cross the 7% handle for the first time in over 21 months, as rupee plunged to another record low, while overnight index swap rates underwent another wave of paying.

The 10-year 6.48% 2035 bond yield hit a high of 7.0121%, the highest for a 10-year paper since July 5, 2024, up from the previous session's close of 6.9419%. (Reuters)

Central Mine Planning & Design Institute shares traded sharply lower after making a weak debut in the Indian stock market on Monday. Central Mine Planning & Design Institute IPO listing date was today, March 30, and the stock has been listed on BSE and NSE.

CMPDI IPO listing took place amid the stock market crash today, as the benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50 declined over 1.5% each.

Central Mine Planning & Design Institute shares were listed at ₹160 apiece on the NSE, a discount of nearly 7% to the issue price of ₹172 per share. On the BSE, CMPDI shares were listed with a 5.3% discount at ₹162.80 per share. Read more

Shares of home services marketplace Urban Company gained nearly 8% in Monday's intraday trade, March 30, reaching the day’s high of ₹123.39 apiece, even as the broader market extended its sell-off for the third straight session.

The rally in the newly listed stock came after the company announced that its quick-service housekeeping vertical, InstaHelp, has surpassed 1 million bookings in March so far.

In its regulatory filing on March 28, the company said InstaHelp has seen strong adoption in cities such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, and Pune.

Under this vertical, the company offers consumers high-quality housekeeping services for tasks such as cleaning, dishwashing, laundry, and meal preparation, all within 10–15 minutes of booking. Read more

Investors lost about ₹9 lakh crore as the overall market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms fell to ₹413 lakh crore, down from ₹422 lakh crore in the previous session.

Metal stocks including NALCO, Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, and others rallied on Monday, March 30, following a sharp rise in aluminium prices. Nifty Metal index was the only sectoral index trading in the green amid weak sentiment across Dalal Street.

The Nifty Metal index rose over 0.5%, as against a 1.5% fall in the benchmark Nifty 50.

NALCO shares rose more than 6% to trade at around ₹395 apiece, while Hindalco shares gained over 5% to trade at nearly ₹913 apiece. Vedanta also added 4.5% to the day's high of ₹678.60. Among other metal stocks, SAIL also jumped 5% while Jindal Stainless, Ratnamani Metals, and Welspun Corp added over 1% each.

Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 6% on Monday to hover near four-year highs. The benchmark three-month aluminium contract on the LME rose to $3,492 per metric tonne, marking its highest level since March 19.

Treasuries rose as fears that the war in the Middle East will trigger a sharp economic slowdown prompted traders to dial back bets on higher interest rates. Brent hit $116 a barrel and US stock futures advanced.

US yields fell across the curve after money markets slashed the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 to 25%, from about 35% on Friday. The rate on two-year Treasuries dropped two basis points to 3.89%. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2% after the benchmark slumped to an August low at the end of last week. The dollar was little changed.

The moves came after missile strikes ripped across the Middle East over the weekend as Iran and its proxies launched attacks at US allies. The arrival of a US amphibious assault group and the entry of Iran-backed Houthi forces heightened fears of escalation after a month of fighting. (Bloomberg)