SpaceX stock price rebounds after seven-session losing streak. Opportunity to buy?

SpaceX stock price rose more than 3% on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing streak. Shares of the Elon Musk-led company ended 3.08% higher at $123.54 apiece, giving SpaceX a market capitalisation of $1.63 trillion.

The seven-session fall had wiped out $425 billion from the company’s market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Despite Tuesday’s gains, the stock continues to trade below its initial public offering (IPO) price.

SpaceX shares have declined in 10 of the past 12 trading sessions amid a broader sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks and after the company aborted a launch of its Starship rocket due to an engine issue.

The rocket and AI company, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp., listed on the US stock market on June 12 at $135 a share. The stock subsequently surged to a record high of $225.64, pushing SpaceX’s valuation above $2.6 trillion.

However, SpaceX stock price has since come under significant pressure, closing at $119.85 on Monday — more than 45% below its post-IPO peak.

SpaceX to report first quarterly earnings on August 4

SpaceX has announced that it will release its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company on August 4.

The company, which trades under the ticker SPCX on the Nasdaq, is scheduled to report its results after the US market closes at 9:30 p.m. GMT. The results will cover the second quarter ended June 30.

SpaceX reported a loss of $4.3 billion last year in its IPO filings. The company has also set a long-term goal of developing data centres in space.

SpaceX faces major share unlock

SpaceX is set to witness one of the largest share unlocks in capital markets history, with as much as $116 billion worth of stock potentially becoming eligible for sale next month, Bloomberg reported.

Restrictions preventing certain insiders from selling as many as 911.5 million shares are scheduled to expire on August 6, just two days after the company reports its quarterly results. In addition, billions of shares are expected to become eligible for trading by the end of the year.

The share unlock could give early investors and private-market shareholders an opportunity to realise substantial gains.

By early December, the number of SpaceX shares available for public trading is expected to rise to 5.33 billion from around 639 million currently, according to the IPO prospectus.

Elon Musk owns an aggregate of 7.8 billion SpaceX shares, representing roughly 60% of the company’s outstanding stock. According to the prospectus, he has agreed not to sell his shares until slightly more than a year after the company’s June debut.

The structure outlined by SpaceX and its investment bankers is unusual compared with traditional post-IPO lock-up arrangements. Typically, company insiders are subject to a 180-day lock-up period before a potential wave of shares enters the market.

Given SpaceX’s enormous size, the company opted for a different structure after considering several alternatives to expand the pool of publicly tradable shares without creating a sharp imbalance between supply and demand.

SpaceX share outlook

Viram Shah, Founder and CEO of Vested Finance, said the sharp volatility in SpaceX stock price should be viewed in the context of its limited public float, with less than 5% of shares available for public trading after the IPO.

“Price action and business performance are telling two different stories. With such a limited free float, the stock is being priced by a very small portion of the company’s ownership base, which can lead to significant volatility in both directions,” Shah said.

He added that the upcoming increase in the number of publicly tradable shares could have a significant impact on the stock’s valuation and trading dynamics.

“Whether or not those shares actually get sold, the market is repricing for a much larger float. Indian investors have seen a version of this domestically, where post-listing supply from anchor and pre-IPO holders reshapes the price well after the listing pop has faded,” added Shah.

On the business outlook, Shah said investors should view SpaceX as a combination of businesses at different stages of development. While Starlink remains the company’s primary revenue and profit driver, its AI business continues to require significant investment, creating a wide divergence in the performance of its individual segments.

“Group net loss was $4.94 billion for 2025 and $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. So you have a profitable connectivity business, a launch business, and a frontier AI business at three completely different stages, under one ticker,” Shah said.

Subho Moulik, Founder & CEO, Appreciate noted that SpaceX is a three-part conglomerate that reported a loss of $4.94 billion in FY2025, driven by the xAI operations now in the group, which ran a $6.36 billion operating loss.

"As of 21 July, SpaceX stock trades near 84 times trailing sales, and the market cannot agree what that is worth: analyst targets run from $115 to $800 on the same stock. The shares closed at about 45% below their intraday June peak of $225.64, and Class A buyers get economics without control, with Musk holding about 82% of the vote," Moulik said.

He added that the $4.94 billion loss reads badly, but it sits almost entirely in the AI unit, while the launch and Starlink businesses make money.

"A name this volatile and this young in public life earns a place as a satellite holding, not a core that the portfolio leans on. It is the kind of position serious long-term investors fit inside a diversified global allocation weighted 35% to 40% toward US and global equities - but this should currently be a minor holding in the portfolio till a track record of a few quarters is established," said Moulik.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s earnings and the following insider lock-up unwinding two days later are expected to keep the stock volatile.

"For a rupee-based investor, a dollar asset held with patience also sits on the right side of a weakening currency. Own the space age. Just don't bet on one launch and expect it to carry the whole portfolio," Moulik added.

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(With inputs from Agencies)