Stock market crash: Despite escalation in the US-Iran war, Nifty 50 may not fall below 22,000; here's why

Stock market crash: Following weak global cues on escalation in the US-Iran war after Yemen’s Houthis reportedly launched missile strikes on Israel, the Indian stock market witnessed an across-the-board sell-off during the early morning dealings on Monday.

In today's stock market crash, the Nifty 50 index slipped below the crucial 22,500 support level, hitting an intraday low of 22,470. However, the 50-stock index bounced back strongly and was last trading around 22,600.

Investors lost nearly ₹5 lakh crore in this sell-off, as the overall market cap of BSE-listed stocks nosedived to ₹417 lakh crore, down from ₹422 lakh crore in the previous session.

According to experts, the Indian stock market came under pressure due to weak global market sentiment following a fresh spike in crude oil prices after the reported entry of the Iran-backed Houthis in the US-Iran war. However, they believe this stock market sell-off is a sentiment-driven move and may be short-lived.

US-Iran war news in focus

Speaking on the reason for the stock market crash today, Hariprasad K, Founder of Livelong Wealth, said, “The broad-based weakness comes as the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, with fresh escalation after Yemen’s Houthi movement reportedly launched missile strikes on Israel. This marks a widening of the conflict footprint and has heightened fears of prolonged instability in the region.”

Going ahead, experts believe Nifty 50 will bounce back from the low levels and will not break below 22,000, as the index has built open interest at that level.

They said the Nifty 50 may sustain above 22,500 as strong put writing interest is seen at 22,500 strikes, signalling a bounce-back from this immediate support.

Stock market crash: Put writes signal a strong rebound

Expecting a recovery in the Indian stock market, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, said the momentum indicator RSI for the Nifty 50 index is currently at 35.76. This signals an early sign of recovery. However, a sustained move above 50 would be required to confirm any strengthening in bullish momentum.

“In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was observed at the 23,000 strike, with additional activity at the 23,100 strike. On the put side, strong writing interest was seen at the 22,800 and 22,500 strikes, indicating these levels may act as immediate support zones,” Bagadia said.

Nifty 50 may not fall below 22,000

Speaking on the technical outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said the Nifty 50 index is attempting to hold near its previous monthly low around 21,700, making the 22,000 level a critical support for the coming weeks.

He believes that if the index sustains above this level, it could open the door for a potential recovery toward the 23,400–23,800 range. On the downside, immediate support lies in the 21,800–22,500 zone, which coincides with previous lows in 2025.

“For the upcoming monthly expiry, Nifty is expected to trade within a broad range of 22,500–23,600,” Dongre said, adding, “Derivatives data supports this view, with the highest call open interest at the 23,500 and 23,000 strike levels, indicating key resistance, while the highest put open interest at 22,000 and 23,000 suggests strong support.”

US-Iran war update

Meanwhile, the US-Iran war entered its fifth week with no signs of de-escalation. US President Donald Trump is considering a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing US officials.

Trump has not decided on the operation due to considerations over the danger to US troops. But he remains generally open to the idea, the WSJ report said.

On Saturday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced their entry into the West Asia war on Saturday (March 28, 2026) by launching a ballistic missile towards Israel, as the world struggled to contain the economic damage of a conflict now entering its second month.

In a post on X, Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group had fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it described as sensitive Israeli military sites, in support of Iran and allied Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

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