Stock market crash: Will the Nifty 50 sustain above 24K? These three bank stocks hold key

Indian equity benchmarks witnessed sharp intraday losses on Wednesday, April 22, snapping a three-day gaining streak as global uncertainties and earnings-driven selling pressure weighed on sentiment. The selloff came amid cautious global cues, as investors tracked developments around the US–Iran conflict and fluctuating crude oil prices.

The Sensex dropped as much as 831 points, or nearly 1%, to hit an intraday low of 78,442.30, while the Nifty 50 slipped 224 points, or 0.9%, to touch 24,352.90. Weakness was led by IT and banking stocks, with the Nifty IT index tumbling nearly 4% after disappointing Q4 earnings and cautious management commentary from key companies.

Banking stocks also saw profit booking, dragging the Nifty Bank index lower by over 0.5% after a strong 2.3% rally in the previous three sessions.

Global factors added to the pressure. Oil prices remained volatile, with US crude falling to around $88.81 per barrel and Brent crude slipping to $97.80. At the same time, US President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire, though uncertainty persists as Iran has not formally agreed, and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue.

Bank stocks hold key for index movement

Market experts believe that despite the sharp intraday fall, the broader trend for the Nifty 50 remains intact, with banking stocks playing a decisive role in determining the index’s near-term direction.

According to Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, the current weakness is largely driven by geopolitical uncertainty and elevated crude prices rather than any structural deterioration.

“Today’s fall in the Indian stock market can be attributed to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran war and crude oil hovering around $85 per barrel. Rather than focusing only on Nifty 50, investors should track Bank Nifty, as it holds the key to overall market direction,” he said.

He added that the Nifty 50 is unlikely to break below the crucial 24,000 level as long as the Bank Nifty sustains above 56,000. With banking stocks accounting for nearly 35% weight in the index, the performance of heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank of India will be critical in shaping market direction.

Key levels to watch

While the broader structure remains positive, analysts caution that near-term volatility could persist due to overbought conditions and ongoing profit booking.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that the market may see intermittent corrections even within a bullish trend.

“The short-term market structure remains bullish, but due to temporary overbought conditions, some profit booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out. For traders, 24,500 will act as an immediate support zone, while a break below this could trigger sharper intraday weakness,” he said.

He added that if the index sustains above 24,500, it could resume its upward trajectory towards the 25,750–25,800 zone. However, a decisive close below 24,300 could signal a negative shift in sentiment.

Overall, the current market correction appears to be driven more by external uncertainties and tactical profit booking rather than a fundamental breakdown. However, with geopolitical risks still evolving and earnings season in full swing, investors are likely to remain cautious. The near-term direction of the Nifty 50 will largely hinge on how banking heavyweights perform and whether key support levels hold.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.