Stock market today: Nifty 50, Sensex hit all-time highs. Exit polls 2024 to GDP data - 4 reasons why market is soaring

Stock market today: Indian stock market benchmarks- the Nifty 50 and the Sensex- soared to their record-high levels in early trade on Monday, June 3.

Nishant Kumar
Updated3 Jun 2024, 04:39 PM IST
Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty 50 jumped almost 4% each in intraday trade on Monday, June 3. Photographer: Robert Caplin/Bloomberg News.
Stock market today: Sensex and Nifty 50 jumped almost 4% each in intraday trade on Monday, June 3. Photographer: Robert Caplin/Bloomberg News.(Bloomberg)

Stock market today: Indian stock market benchmarks—the Nifty 50 and the Sensex—soared to record-high levels in early trade on Monday, June 3, after a majority of the exit polls predicted on Saturday, June 1, that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA may win over 350 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

The Indian stock market overcame election-related jitters as exit poll results predicted the return of the BJP-led NDA to power with a substantial majority.

Sensex opened 2,622 points higher at 76,583.29 against its previous close of 73,961.31 and surged 2,778, or 3.8 per cent, to hit its fresh record high of 76,738.89. The 30-share pack finally closed with a hefty gain of 2,507 points, or 3.39 per cent, at 76,468.78, with 25 stocks in the green.

The Nifty 50 opened 807 points higher at 23,337.90 against its previous close of 22,530.70. It rose 808 points, or 3.6 per cent, to hit its fresh record high of 23,338.70 in early deals. The Nifty 50 closed at 23,263.90, up 733 points, or 3.25 per cent.

Also Read: Exit poll 2024 frenzy could be followed by profit booking after results, focus to shift on Budget, say experts

Investors went on a hectic buying spree across segments, and the midcap and smallcap indices also surged to fresh record highs, surging nearly 4 per cent each.

The BSE Midcap index hit its fresh all-time high of 44560.97 during the session but closed 3.54 per cent higher at 44,367.67. The BSE Smallcap index hit its fresh record high of 48,973.96 during the session and finally settled with a gain of 2.05 per cent at 48,232.30.

Nearly 300 stocks, including SBI, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Larsen and Toubro, Mahindra and Mahindra, NTPC, and Power Grid, hit fresh 52-week highs in intraday trade on the BSE on Monday.

Also Read: Stock market today: Sensex, Nifty 50 record biggest single-day gain in 3 years; investors earn 14 lakh crore in a day

In May, the Nifty 50 and Sensex broke their three-month winning run, closing in negative territory due to heightened volatility driven by election-related uncertainty. The volatility index India VIX surged 91 per cent in May.

Also Read: Sensex, Nifty 50 break 3-month gains to end May in red; 5 major triggers to watch out for in June

Although the exit poll results were the main catalyst, experts have identified three additional factors that may have bolstered stock market sentiment.

“Nifty has opened with a gap up primarily on the back of the exit poll numbers indicating a clean sweep for the BJP-led NDA government for the third time in a row. Apart from this, there were few other things which pushed the index higher like better-than-expected GDP numbers, the strong pullback in US markets on Friday, the arrival of monsoon and a reduction in fiscal deficit,” said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities.

Sheth underscored that the Nifty 50 is currently placed above the upper edge of the rising parallel channel. He believes that the index has the potential to touch 23,500 as the counting starts on 4 June. 

Sheth said traders must use this opportunity to book profits in their long positions and wait for dips in Nifty around 23,000 to 22,800 levels to create fresh long positions. 

“The medium-term target in Nifty is around 24,500,” said Sheth.

Let's take a look at four crucial triggers that boosted the market to record high levels:
 

Exit poll results

As Mint reported earlier, most exit poll results on June 1 predicted a historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA is projected to win more than 350 plus seats, as per at least ten exit polls.

Three major exit polls – India Today-My Axis India, India TV-CNX, and News24-Todays Chanakya – have predicted 400 plus seats for the NDA. The pollsters have predicted less than 200 seats for the Opposition INDIA bloc.

Also Read: Exit Polls 2024: Lok Sabha result predictions had some errors too. Details here

With the Lok Sabha elections concluded analysts anticipate that the market will stay in positive territory in the coming days, barring any unexpected negative developments.

"We anticipate Indian equities to rise over the next 3-4 days, with the Nifty reaching a new all-time high this week. We expect the Nifty to reach approximately 23,200-23,300 levels during this period. Additionally, we foresee the India 10-year yield reaching 6.9 per cent and the Indian rupee appreciating to 82.75," said Amit Goel, Co-Founder & Chief Global Strategist at Pace 360.

Also Read: Bulls to reign on D-Street after exit polls predict 350+ for BJP; Experts peg Nifty upside at 23,400+ for June 3

Macro boost

According to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, May 31, India's gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter of fiscal 2023-24 (Q4FY24) came in at 7.8 per cent, while for the full year FY24, the Indian economy grew by 8.2 per cent, beating estimates.

Also Read: India Q4 GDP Data Highlights: FY24 growth hits 8.2%; ‘'Just a trailer of things to come,'' says PM Modi

Moreover, the government's fiscal deficit for 2023-24 stood at 5.63 per cent of the GDP, marginally better than the 5.8 per cent estimated in the Union Budget, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday, May 31.

Also Read: India’s FY24 fiscal deficit improves to 5.63% of GDP, narrower than government’s target of 5.8%

The GDP numbers on Friday were better than expected, with 8.2 per cent growth. This will provide fundamental support to the market. S&P’s upward revision of India’s rating outlook also is positive," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

Last Wednesday, S&P Global raised its outlook on India to positive and stable after 14 years, citing India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals and government capex. However, the rating agency kept its sovereign credit ratings unchanged at 'BBB-/A-3', the lowest it offers. It said cautious fiscal and monetary policy could improve ratings over the next two years.

Also Read: After 14 years, India gets a ratings outlook upgrade from S&P

Across-the-board buying

The market witnessed broad buying, led by the banking, financial, metal, realty, and oil and gas sectors. The Nifty Bank index surged over 4 per cent to hit a fresh record high of 50,990.

The Nifty PSU Bank index soared nearly 7 per cent in morning trade, while Realty, Metal and Financial Services indices jumped up to 4 per cent.

Also Read: Nifty PSU Bank soars on Modi wave, hits historic high with over 5% surge as exit polls hint at decisive victory

Positive global cues

Positive global cues also supported domestic market sentiment. Inflation remains sticky, but hopes of rate cuts in Europe have been growing. The US Fed, too, may consider rate cuts in the second half of the year.  

Moreover, recent macro data prints in some major Asian economies have come positive. According to Reuters, Japan's factory activity expanded for the first time in a year in May, while South Korea's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in two years.

Read all market-related news here

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts, and brokerage firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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$23 B

$65 M

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₹1 Cr

₹14,370 Cr

₹5.74 T

First Published:3 Jun 2024, 04:39 PM IST
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