Stock market today: Sensex jumps over 1,100 points, Nifty 50 above 23,950 on US-Iran peace deal optimism. Outlook ahead?

The Indian stock market's benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, traded with strong gains on Monday, June 15, as the bulls took charge across global markets, after the United States and Iran agreed on a framework for a deal to end their war in West Asia.

The BSE Sensex opened 1,197.32 points, or 1.59%, higher at 76,725.27, while the Nifty 50 opened at 23,984.85, up by 361.95 points, or 1.53%. The Bank Nifty index jumped 864.85 points, or 1.52%, to open at 57,679.65.

The rally in the markets was broad-based, as the Nifty Smallcap 100 and the Nifty Midcap 100 indices rallied over 1.7% each.

Among sectors, strong gains were seen in Nifty Realty, Nifty Auto, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Metals and Nifty PSU Bank indices, while Nifty Pharma was under pressure.

At 11:30 AM, Sensex was up by 1,175.25 points, or 1.56%, at 76,703.20, while the Nifty 50 traded higher by 356.90 points, or 1.51%, at 23,979.80.

Risk-appetite improved after the announcement of the US-Iran peace deal sent crude oil prices tumbling, with Brent crude oil futures falling below $84 a barrel, while WTI oil price fell below $80.

Lower crude oil prices are a positive for India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, as they help ease pressure on inflation, the rupee and the country’s trade deficit.

US and Iranian officials said on Sunday they had agreed on a framework to end their war, halt the US blockade of Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The countries will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, said Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz ​Sharif, whose country served as a mediator in the negotiations.

“With the dawn of peace in West Asia, hopefully, and the consequent sharp correction in Brent crude to below $84 in early trade, the prospects for the Indian economy and stock market have turned for the better. The GDP growth rate and CPI inflation projections for FY 27 can be revised in this changed scenario to 6.9% and 4.6% respectively. This will have positive implications for the stock market,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened 43 paise to open at 94.68 against the US dollar, its strongest level since May 8.

“The rupee is likely to continue its uptrend, dipping below 95 to the dollar. With the rupee stabilising, FPIs are unlikely to continue big selling in India even though the AI trade still continues to be strong, particularly in South Korea and Taiwan,” added Vijayakumar.

Meanwhile, India’s headline inflation inched up marginally to 3.93% in May, better than market expectations, and below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target.

Economists expect inflation to average 20–30 bps lower than RBI’s projection of 4.2% in Q1FY27, with downside risk to FY27 projections if free access to the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) is restored.

Stock Market Strategy

Vijayakumar expects banks to lead the rally as the big short positions in the leading private sector banks will continue to trigger further short covering in the segment.

“The valuations of banks are attractive in this fairly valued market. Nifty Midcap at 29x and Nifty Smallcap at 33x earnings are overvalued compared to the Nifty 50, which is trading at around 20x. However, the better performance of the broader market in Q4FY26 and better earnings prospects in FY27 will continue to attract investment into this segment,” said Vijayakumar.

Nifty 50 Outlook

Nifty 50 extended the bullish momentum from the previous session and successfully broke above its near-term resistance zone.

“Technically, the 24,000 psychological level now remains the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above this mark could reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 24,200 – 24,400 zone, which remains the next significant hurdle for the index,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.

On the downside, the 23,800 level is expected to act as an important immediate support area, having previously served as a resistance zone.

“Holding above this level will be crucial to maintain the ongoing positive structure. However, a decisive breach below 23,800 could lead to profit booking and drag the index towards the previous closing zone around 23,600,” he added.

Momentum indicators continue to remain supportive, with the RSI hovering near the 58 mark, reflecting strengthening momentum and improving buying participation.

Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty decisively surpassed its April high, reflecting strong buying interest and continued outperformance relative to the broader market.

“The breakout above a key medium-term resistance level has strengthened the overall technical structure and reinforced the prevailing bullish momentum. Technically, the 57,800 – 58,000 zone now represents the immediate resistance area. A sustained breakout above this band could further accelerate bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 58,800 – 59,000 region, which remains the next significant resistance zone for the index,” said Ponmudi R.

On the downside, the 57,000 – 56,800 zone is expected to act as an important immediate support area. Holding above this range will be crucial to preserve the current positive structure and maintain the ongoing uptrend.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.