Stock market today: Trade setup for Gift Nifty 50, US-Iran war, crude oil, gold, silver rates — 8 stocks to buy or sell

Stock market today: The Indian stock market witnessed a sell-off session on Monday as escalating US-Iran war in the Middle East triggered a surge in global crude oil prices and heightened uncertainty across financial markets. The spike in crude oil price above $100 per barrel raised fresh macroeconomic concerns for India, a major oil-importing economy, prompting broad-based selling across benchmark indices.

Volatility surged alongside the decline, reflecting rising investor anxiety. India VIX jumped to 23.59, up more than 70% in a week as geopolitical risks intensified. Such a sharp rise in volatility signals elevated uncertainty and typically results in inflated options premiums. In such conditions, derivatives traders tend to adopt a cautious approach, as any sudden de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could quickly push volatility lower and compress option premiums sharply.

What Gift Nifty live chart, global markets signal?

The Gift Nifty live chart shows a gap-up opening, as the index is trading green with an over 80-point gain during the early morning session on Tuesday.

Expecting a gap-up opening for the Indian stock market today, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, “Indian equity markets are poised for a positive start as global risk sentiment improves following signs that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may be nearing de-escalation. Early indicators suggest a rebound in domestic equities, with Gift Nifty trading around the 24,306 level, pointing to a gap-up opening after the sharp sell-off witnessed in the previous session.”

The Livelong Wealth expert said the turnaround in sentiment is largely driven by developments in global markets. The US stock market staged a strong recovery overnight, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing nearly 200 points higher after crude oil prices reversed sharply lower. The rally followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting that the conflict with Iran could be approaching its final stages. His remarks that the war appeared “very complete” helped calm investor fears after several sessions of risk-off sentiment across global markets.

Asian markets have responded strongly to these developments. Benchmark indices such as Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi surged more than 5% in early trading, reflecting a broad risk-on sentiment across the region as investors reacted to the sharp reversal in energy prices and the recovery in U.S. equities.

Crude oil price today

After skyrocketing to a new 52-week high of $119.43/barrel, WTI crude oil prices retraced sharply following G-7 intervention. These developed countries vowed to ensure crude oil supply and meet demand, but crude oil prices crashed after a profit-booking trigger.

By 7:25 AM on Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil price is trading in the green, quoting around $84.50/barrel, logging an intraday loss of over 10% and a 30% loss from the 52-week high of $119.43/barrel set yesterday.

Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said the decline in crude oil prices has been a key catalyst for the rebound in equities. Oil markets reacted sharply after signals that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route, may not escalate further. With oil prices easing from recent highs, inflation concerns and supply disruption risks have temporarily subsided, providing relief to global equity markets.

Gold, silver rates today

After a challenging session on Monday, gold and silver rates today saw strong buying in the early-morning Asian markets. The COMEX gold rate today opened with an upside gap and touched an intraday high of $5,177.80/oz, within a few minutes of the Opening Bell, logging an intraday gain of around 1.25%. Likewise, the COMEX silver rate today opened with an upside gap and touched an intraday high of $89.485/oz, logging an intraday gain of over 5.50%.

Speaking on the outlook for gold and silver rates today, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP, Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, said the trajectory will depend on how the conflict evolves, as prolonged tensions could sustain volatility, keeping bullion traders on a wait-and-watch mode in the near term. Upcoming U.S. economic data, including CPI, Core PCE Price Index, Prelim GDP, and JOLTS Job Openings, could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy, but broader market trends are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in West Asia.

FII-DII data

FIIs remained net sellers on Monday. They sold out Indian shares worth ₹6,345 crore in the cash segment. However, DIIs remained net buyers by buying shares worth ₹9,013 crore. In index futures, FIIs sold shares worth ₹3,072 crore, whereas in index options, they sold shares worth ₹6,940 crore.

Stock market today

Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 and Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said that technically, on the backdrop of weak global sentiment, our market opened with a gap down of over 500/2400 points. However, in the second half, it trimmed some losses. On daily and intraday charts, the market is forming a lower top, indicating further weakness from current levels.

“We are of the view that the current market texture is weak but oversold. For day traders, 24,000-23,900/77,500-77,200 would act as key support zones. Above this, we could see the pullback extend to 24,150-24,300/78,000-78,200. On the flip side, below 23,900/77,200, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. If the market falls below this level, it could retest 23,700/76,500. Further downside may also continue, potentially dragging the index to 23,500/76,000,” Kotak Securities said.

Stocks to buy today

Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts — Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these five buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: Reliance Industries, Balrampur Chini Mills, Jubilant FoodWorks, AB Capital, MCX, Ather Energy, Godrej Agrovet, and Yatharth Hospital.

Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations

1] Reliance Industries: Buy at ₹1424, Target ₹1522, Stop Loss ₹1375;

2] Balrampur Chini Mills: Buy at ₹493, Target ₹530, Stop Loss ₹475.

Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks

3] Jubilant FoodWorks: Buy at ₹490, Target ₹510, Stop Loss ₹480;

4] AB Capital: Buy at ₹325, Target ₹340, Stop Loss ₹315; and

5] MCX: Buy at ₹2575, Target ₹2650, Stop Loss ₹2500.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

6] Ather Energy: Buy at ₹681.70, Target ₹720, Stop Loss ₹665;

7] Godrej Agrovet: Buy at ₹601.75, Target ₹635, Stop Loss ₹585; and

8] Yatharth Hospital: Buy at ₹664.80, Target ₹705, Stop Loss ₹650.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.