Stock market today: Trade setup for Gift Nifty 50, US-Iran war, India VIX to gold, silver rates; 8 stocks to buy or sell

Stock market today: Following strong global cues, the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market bounced back strongly on Thursday. The Nifty 50 index shot up 285 points and closed at 24,765, the BSE Sensex surged 899 points and ended at 80,015, and the Bank Nifty index gained 300 points and finished at 59,055.

Among sectors, the Capital Market, Defence, and Metal indices gained over 2%, while intraday profit booking in IT stocks led the IT index to close in the negative territory.

What does the Gift Nifty Live chart, global cues signal?

The Gift Nifty live chart is trading at a discount of around 200 points, which signals a gap-down opening for the Indian stock market.

Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said the Indian stock market is likely to open on a weak note, with the Gift Nifty index hovering around 24,600, signalling a potential gap-down start.

The Livelong Wealth expert said the global cues remain largely negative after the Dow Jones declined more than 1.6%, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to unsettle financial markets. The sharp rise in crude oil prices, which is now at its highest level since 2024, has further intensified risk aversion across global equities.

Asian markets are also reflecting the cautious sentiment, with indices such as the Nikkei and Kospi trading in the red, mirroring the broader global risk-off environment triggered by geopolitical uncertainty.

Stock market today

Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 and Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said that 24,600/79,500 and 24,500/79,200 would act as key support zones. Above these levels, the market could continue its positive momentum up to 24,950-25,000/80,500-80,700. On the flip side, below 24,500/79,200, the sentiment could change. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions.

On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “The index has been in a 'sell on rise' phase over the past few days, and the sentiment surrounding Bank Nifty remains unchanged. Although there was a recovery from Wednesday’s low, the bounce does not appear convincing.”

On the hourly chart, said De, the index has failed to move above the 21 EMA, highlighting the underlying weakness in the banking space. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 59,500/59660. On the downside, 58,400 acts as key support, below which the correction may deepen further.

Gold, silver rates today

Gold and silver prices are trading green in the international market. The COMEX gold rate today opened with an upside gap and touched an intraday high of $5,125.70/oz, recording an intraday gain of around one per cent. Likewise, the COMEX silver rate today opened northward and touched an intraday high of $83.710/oz, logging an intraday gain of around 1.85%.

Speaking on the outlook for silver and gold rates today, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said the undertone is positive. He said that the gold rate today is in $5,100 to $5,300 per ounce, with a minor hurdle placed at $5,200/oz. Similarly, the silver rate today is in $75 to $88 per ounce range.

“The MCX gold rate today is in the ₹1,58,000 to ₹1,70,000 per 10 gm range with a minor hurdle placed at ₹1,65,000. The MCX silver rate today is in the ₹2,55,000 to ₹2,80,000 per kg range,” Anuj Gupta said.

US-Iran war update

US President Donald Trump encouraged Iranian Kurdish forces to go on the offensive while describing Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership as "unacceptable". He told Reuters he must be personally involved in choosing Iran's next leader.

"We want to be involved in the process of choosing the person who is going to lead Iran into the future, so we don't have to go back every five years and do this again and again. We want somebody that's going to be great for the people, great for the country," Trump was quoted as saying.

Trump's statement came six days after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday. The conflict has reportedly killed more than 1,000 people, including at least six US service members, and caused damage and instability throughout the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) urged Iran's neighbours not to shelter Americans, warning that it will identify and target them. "It's the Islamic duty of the region's countries to accurately report the hiding place of American terrorists," the IRGC's intelligence unit said in a statement, as per the IRNA news agency.

India VIX today

Showing some signs of improvement, the Indian volatility index — India VIX — finished over 15.50% lower at 17.86.

Decoding what India VIX signals, Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said, “India VIX, which cooled slightly in the previous session, could see a fresh spike if global fears intensify again. A move above the 20 level would indicate a renewed surge in market anxiety, warranting greater caution for short-term traders, particularly with regard to position sizing.”

FII-DII data

Despite a heavy rise in the Indian key indices on Thursday, FIIs remained net sellers, selling out Indian shares worth ₹3,752.52 crore in the cash segment. However, DIIs ended on the net buyers' side, buying shares worth ₹5,153.37 crore in cash. In the F&O segment, FII bought index futures worth ₹299.59 crore and sold out index options worth ₹4,277.09 crore.

USD vs INR

On the back of a buying trend in domestic equity markets and suspected RBI intervention, the Indian Rupee rebounded from its lowest level and settled 41 paise higher at 91.64 against the US dollar on Thursday.

According to forex analysts, the Reserve Bank appears to have intervened to help the local currency avoid extreme volatility amid uncertainties over the ongoing war involving the US, Israel and Iran.

However, a firm dollar, rising crude oil prices and withdrawal of foreign funds kept the rupee under pressure, they said.

Stocks to buy today

Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts — Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these five buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: BEL, GESHIP, Cipla, NALCO, MCX, M&M, Cummins India, and Power Grid Corporation.

Sumeet Bagadia's stock recommendations today

1] BEL: Buy at ₹460, Target ₹492, Stop Loss ₹444; and

2] GESHIP: Buy at ₹1389, Target ₹1487, Stop Loss ₹1340.

Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks

3] Cipla: Buy at ₹1327, Target ₹1370, Stop Loss ₹1300;

4] NALCO: Buy at ₹395, Target ₹410, Stop Loss ₹380; and

5] MCX: Buy at ₹2551, Target ₹2630, Stop Loss ₹2450.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

6] M&M: Buy at ₹3348, Target ₹2470, Stop Loss ₹3285;

7] Cummins India: Buy at ₹4791, Target ₹4970, Stop Loss ₹4700; and

8] Power Grid Corporation: Buy at ₹299.45, Target ₹317, Stop Loss ₹291.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.