Stock market today: Trade setup for Gift Nifty, US-Iran war, USD vs INR to gold, silver rates — 6 stocks to buy or sell

Stock market today: The Indian stock market ended last week under significant corrective pressure amid deteriorating global risk sentiment, rising crude oil prices, and persistent selling by foreign institutional investors. The sharp shift in global risk appetite triggered broad-based profit-taking across sectors, resulting in one of the steepest weekly declines in recent months. As the US-Iran war intensified and energy prices surged, global investors appeared to reduce their exposure to emerging markets, leading to notable capital outflows from Indian equities.

FIIs remained aggressive net sellers in the cash segment, recording total outflows of ₹35,053 crore during the week. The scale of selling reflects a clear risk reduction strategy among global funds amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. DIIs, however, provided strong counterbalancing support with net purchases of ₹37,740 crore. This domestic buying interest helped absorb a substantial portion of the foreign selling pressure and prevented the correction from deepening further across the broader market.

What does the Gift Nifty live chart and Asian markets signal?

The Gift Nifty live chart is trading green at around 23,325, whereas the Asian bourses are trading mixed.

Decoding the Gift Nifty Live Chart and Asian stock market signal, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth, said, “Indian markets are likely to begin the week on a mildly positive note, with GIFT Nifty trading around 23,351, indicating a steady opening for domestic equities. Early cues from Asia remain mixed, with South Korea’s KOSPI rising about 1%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 is trading flat to slightly negative, reflecting cautious sentiment across the region.”

Gold, silver rates today

Gold and silver traded mixed during the early morning session on Monday, March 16, as tensions in the Middle East entered the third week.

The COMEX gold rate today fell more than 1% during early Asian trading hours, slipping below the $5,000 level. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of $4,971.30 on Monday. Meanwhile, spot silver plunged 2.23% to $79.5 per ounce on March 16.

“The undertone for the precious metals is positive. The COMEX gold rate today has crucial support placed at $4,900/oz, and the MCX gold rate today has crucial support placed at ₹1,55,000 per 10 gm,” said Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert.

The SEBI-registered expert said the COMEX silver rate today has immediate support at $78/oz, while the crucial support for the precious white metal is at $70/oz. Similarly, the MCX silver rate today is in ₹2,50,000 to ₹2,65,000 per kg range, said Gupta.

India VIX today

"Volatility is likely to remain elevated with India VIX still above the 22 mark, making option premiums expensive and prompting traders to keep positions lighter. Any meaningful cooling of geopolitical tensions could lead to a sharp decline in volatility and trigger short-covering moves in equities," said Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth.

The Livelong Wealth expert said that sectors sensitive to fuel costs, such as airlines, tourism and automobiles, may remain volatile in the near term, while defensive segments like FMCG and pharmaceuticals could attract relatively stable investor interest. Institutional flows will also remain an important trigger, as continued foreign outflows may cap upside, while any reversal in flows could help stabilise markets after the recent correction.

USD vs INR

Speaking on the outlook of the Indian National Rupee (INR) against the US Dollar (USD), Jateen Trivedi, VP Research — Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, said, “The Indian Rupee traded weaker by ₹0.25 at 92.40 as concerns grow that India’s fiscal deficit could widen if crude oil prices remain elevated. Higher oil prices increase the country’s import bill and subsidy burden, which can put pressure on both the current account and government finances.”

"With the risk of crude staying high, the outlook for the rupee remains cautious as it could create macroeconomic challenges for the Indian economy. In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade within a range of 91.90–92.80, with crude price movements and dollar index trends remaining key drivers," added Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities.

FII-DII data

The FIIs remained net sellers on Friday last week, selling Indian shares worth ₹10,716 crore in the cash segment. In the Index Futures, FIIs sold out shares worth ₹5,200 crore, and in the Index Options, FIIs sold out shares worth ₹945 crore.

Stock market today: Outlook for Nifty 50

Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, believes the stock market crash on Friday indicates sustained bearish sentiment and strong selling pressure. The Choice Broking expert said that bears would continue to dominate Dalal Street until the Nifty 50 index is below 23,350. Bagadia said the India VIX index climbed 5.24% to 22.64, reflecting heightened market volatility and rising investor uncertainty.

“Although the market initially found support around the 23,300 level, it failed to hold that zone and extended losses. The index eventually touched an intraday low of 23,112 before settling at 23,151.10, down 488.05 points (-2.06%). This price movement indicates sustained bearish sentiment and strong selling pressure dominating the market,” said Bagadia.

From a technical perspective, the 23,300–23,350 zone is emerging as immediate resistance, while a solid support base is forming near 23,000–23,050, Bagadia added.

Stocks to buy today

Regarding stocks to buy today, stock market experts — Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager — Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommended these six buy-or-sell stocks for intraday trading: Atul, BEL, SAIL, HAL, Muthoot Finance, and Strides Pharma.

Sumeet Bagadia's stocks to buy today

1] Atul: Buy at ₹6464, Target ₹6912, Stop Loss ₹6240.

Ganesh Dongre's buy or sell stocks

2] BEL: Buy at ₹440, Target ₹460, Stop Loss ₹430;

3] SAIL: Buy at ₹150, Target ₹158, Stop Loss ₹145; and

4] HAL: Buy at ₹3910, Target ₹4300, Stop Loss ₹3900.

Shiju Koothupalakkal's intraday stocks for today

5] Muthoot Finance: Buy at ₹3333, Target ₹3450, Stop Loss ₹3260; and

6] Strides Pharma: Buy at ₹921.60, Target ₹960, Stop Loss ₹900.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.