Sensex and Nifty 50 staged an intraday recovery on Monday to end flat, demonstrating strong underlying domestic appetite after a severe geopolitical sell-off.
Sensex plunged more than 700 points, while Nifty 50 tested its psychologically imporant support at 24,000 driven by a 3% surge in global Brent crude prices following escalating US-Iran hostilities in the Middle East. However, a stellar rally in Nifty IT (+3.59%), led by heavyweights like TCS and HCL Tech ahead of earnings, successfully neutralized these macroeconomic headwinds alongside an initially weaker Rupee.
On the sectoral front, FMCG and Metals faced profit-booking, defensive buying in Consumer Durables and Media cushioned the benchmarks. The broader market participation stayed robust, with the overall advance-decline ratio closing positively with 1,776 stocks advancing and 1,557 stocks declining.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: Rain Industries Limited (current price: ₹213)
- Why it’s recommended: Diversified carbon and chemicals business, global market presence, leading calcined petroleum coke producer, integrated manufacturing operations, diversified end-user industries, strong export revenue base, beneficiary of aluminium demand, specialty chemicals growth potential, operational efficiency improvements, global customer base, capacity optimization opportunities, long-term industrial demand, strong niche market position, improving cash flow potential, and beneficiary of infrastructure growth.
- Key metrics: P/E: 17.13, 52-week high: ₹218.90, volume: ₹199.70 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: Cyclical commodity business, raw material price volatility, dependence on aluminium industry demand, high debt levels, margin pressure from energy costs, environmental and regulatory risks, global economic slowdown impact, currency fluctuation risk, export market volatility, interest rate and refinancing risks, demand fluctuations in key industries, working capital intensive operations, supply chain disruptions, earnings volatility from commodity cycles, and valuation risk during downturns.
- Buy: ₹211–214
- Target price: ₹240 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹202
Buy: Bandhan Bank Limited (current price: ₹213)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong retail banking franchise, large deposit base growth, diversified loan portfolio, reducing microfinance dependence, improving asset quality trends, growing CASA ratio, expanding branch network, strong presence in eastern India, beneficiary of financial inclusion, improving operational efficiency, healthy capital adequacy, digital banking initiatives, attractive valuation potential, scalable retail banking model, and long-term credit growth opportunity.
- Key metrics: P/E: 27.65, 52-week high: ₹218.13, volume: ₹224.06 crore
- Technical analysis: Flat base breakout
- Risk factors: High microfinance exposure, asset quality deterioration risk, credit cost volatility, geographic concentration risk, regulatory risks in microfinance, margin pressure from deposit costs, interest rate cycle impact, intense banking competition, economic slowdown affecting collections, slower CASA growth, dependence on rural borrowers, technology and cybersecurity risks, earnings volatility during stress periods, liquidity and funding risks, and valuation re-rating may take time.
- Buy at: ₹211–214
- Target price: ₹235 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹203
How the Nifty 50 performed on 13 July
Indian equity markets ended largely flat, with Nifty 50 closing at 24,211.00, up 4.10 points (+0.02%), reflecting a range-bound session as investors balanced gains in technology stocks against weakness in select defensives. The index traded between 24,000.20 and 24,259.80, recovering from early volatility to finish marginally above the previous close.
Sectoral performance was mixed, with Nifty IT (+3.59%) emerging as the standout outperformer, supported by strong buying in technology names, while Media (+2.09%) and Consumer Durables (+1.15%) also advanced. On the downside, FMCG (-1.02%), Metal (-0.69%), Healthcare, Pharma, and Realty indices ended lower, limiting broader market gains.
Market breadth remained modestly positive, with 1,776 stocks advancing, 1,557 stocks declining, and 109 remaining unchanged, indicating selective buying despite the subdued performance of the headline index.
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 continues to exhibit a constructive bias after closing at 24,206.90, with the index extending its sequence of higher lows despite intraday volatility. Price action indicates that buyers remain active on dips, while the recent rebound has kept it above its short-term moving averages. However, the index is still trading below the long-term 200-DMA.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 56, remaining above the neutral 50 mark and turning higher after a brief pullback. The MACD remains in positive territory with the MACD line holding above the signal line. Although the histogram has moderated, indicating that bullish momentum has eased slightly after the recent rally.
The index is currently trading near a crucial support zone at 23,800, which will be closely monitored in the coming sessions. A decisive break down below this level could intensify selling pressure and open the door for a decline toward 23,600–23,500. On the upside, 24,300 remains the immediate and critical resistance level. A sustained move above this hurdle would be required to improve near-term sentiment and signal a recovery in market momentum. Until either of these levels is decisively breached, the index is likely to remain range-bound with a cautious bias, as investors await fresh triggers for the next directional move.
How did Nifty Bank perform?
Nifty Bank opened on a positive note at 57,616.70 and witnessed buying interest during the session. The index touched an intraday high of 58,219.90, slipped to an intraday low of 57,492.05 amid brief profit booking, and eventually closed at 58,131.45, gaining 85.55 points (+0.15%).
The recovery from the day's low indicates that buyers remained active on declines and successfully defended key short-term support levels. The index continued to trade above the 10-, 21-, and 200-DMA, reflecting underlying strength despite intraday volatility. Technically, the recent consolidation near 58,000 resembles a tight sideways base, suggesting that the index is absorbing supply before attempting another breakout.
The RSI is currently placed at 58.96, comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that bullish momentum remains intact despite some moderation from recent highs. The indicator has cooled slightly after entering the stronger momentum zone, suggesting healthy consolidation rather than a deterioration in trend.
Meanwhile, the MACD remains above the zero line, reflecting that the broader trend continues to favor the bulls. However, the MACD histogram has weakened, and the MACD line has edged below the signal line, indicating a short-term loss of momentum. Even so, the absence of any bearish divergence and the index's ability to hold above key moving averages suggest that the ongoing consolidation is likely to be corrective rather than the beginning of a larger downtrend.
On the downside, immediate support is near 57,820, which coincides with the 10-DMA, followed by stronger support around 57,710 (21-DMA). A decisive break below these levels could expose the index to 57,300 (200-DMA), where stronger buying interest may emerge.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 58,220, followed by the recent swing high near 58,600. A sustained breakout above these levels could pave the way for a move towards 59,000–59,300. The technical structure remains constructive, supported by resilient domestic liquidity and improving sentiment in financial stocks. If the index continues to hold above the 21-DMA, the broader trend is expected to remain positive, with any short-term declines likely to attract fresh buying interest.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.