Stock recommendations for 1 October from MarketSmith India

Market breadth remained weak, with the advance-decline ratio heavily skewed toward sellers, highlighting pressure across the broader market.

Indian investors tracked quarterly earnings, FII flows and policy developments, while resilience in banking and select large-caps offered some cushion. Globally, sentiment was influenced by the Fed rate outlook, crude volatility, geopolitical tensions, and mixed US-China data, which kept investors cautious in the near term.

Two stock recommendations for today by MarketSmith India

Buy: Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd.(current price: ₹105)

• Why it’s recommended: Strong regional market share in J&K and Ladakh, government support, improving profitability & asset quality, and comfortable capital adequacy
• Key metrics: P/E: 5.13, 52-week high: ₹ 117.25, volume: ₹ 83.15 crore
• Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 50-DMA on above average volume
• Risk factors: Heavy concentration in the J&K region, political & security instability in the region, asset quality risk, and moderate capitalization,
• Buy: ₹103–106
• Target price: ₹118 in two to three months
• Stop loss: ₹99

Buy: National Aluminium Co. Ltd. (current price: ₹214)

• Why it’s recommended: Integrated operations, strong balance sheet, regular dividends, healthy cash reserves, and export potential
• Key metrics: P/E: 6.47; 52-week high: ₹262.99; volume: ₹483.81crore
• Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 21-DMA on above average volume
• Risk factors: High dependency on global aluminium prices, exposure to fluctuations in coal/power costs, vulnerability to forex fluctuations, environmental regulations & sustainability pressures
• Buy at: ₹210–216
• Target price: ₹260 in two to three months
• Stop loss: ₹198

How the market performed on 30 September

The Nifty 50 opened on a firm note but soon slipped into volatility, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty that's dominating market sentiment. On the daily chart, the index has now recorded its eighth straight bearish candle, marked by a lower-high and lower-low price structure, reinforcing the prevailing downside bias.

Momentum signals remain weak, with the RSI falling to 38 and the MACD turning negative, indicating growing vulnerability to further declines. Weak breadth across sectors also suggests limited participation from buyers, amplifying the pressure on overall market stability.

Sustained selling from foreign institutional investors has further weighed on sentiment, while domestic participants remained largely cautious. The lack of conviction across broader indices reflects fragile confidence and underscores the challenges facing near-term recovery. Unless there is a meaningful pickup in market breadth or supportive global cues, volatility is likely to persist. Traders should remain alert to sudden swings, with sentiment-driven moves expected to dominate in the immediate sessions, keeping the index vulnerable to further downside risk.

According to O'Neil’s methodology of market direction, the market status has been downgraded to an "Uptrend Under Pressure" as Nifty breached its "50-DMA" and the "distribution day count" is at one.

The index extended its decline, slipping below key supports as it breached the 50-DMA, 100-DMA, and the recent trendline breakout zone. The critical support now lies at 24,500–24,400, with a decisive close below this band likely to accelerate selling toward 24,200. On the upside, resistance is clustered near 24,950–25,000, aligned with the 100-DMA, and only a sustained move above this zone can signal renewed strength and a potential reversal. Until then, volatility is expected to persist, with 24,800–25,100 as the pivotal range to track for near-term direction.

How did Nifty Bank perform?

Nifty Bank displayed resilience, advancing 0.32% on the back of strong gains in select financial heavyweights. The index opened firm at 54,705.50 and maintained upward momentum throughout the session, forming a bullish candle with a higher-high and higher-low price structure. It also retested its 21-DMA, reinforcing short-term stability.

The index touched an intraday high of 54,793.05 and a low of 54,502.95 before settling at 54,635.85. The price action reflects healthy buying interest and sets the tone for potential continuation of momentum if follow-through strength emerges.

Momentum readings highlight underlying caution despite the positive close. The relative strength index (RSI) has edged higher and is currently placed at 45, signaling that upside momentum is building but remains muted. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to trend below its central line with a negative crossover, pointing to limited strength in the broader setup.

This divergence between price action and indicators underscores the need for confirmation in upcoming sessions. Until the index decisively moves above critical resistance zones, the broader structure may remain fragile, with volatility likely to persist in the near term.

From a technical perspective, Nifty Bank closed at 54,636 after recently breaching short-term moving averages. Immediate support is placed around 54,300–54,200, aligned with recent swing lows, while stronger support rests near the 200-DMA at 53,200. A decisive break below this zone could accelerate declines toward 52,800–52,500.

On the upside, initial resistance lies at 54,900–55,000, coinciding with the 50-DMA, followed by the 100-DMA near 55,680. Sustained trade above these hurdles would be essential to reinstate positive momentum and confirm a recovery trend. Until then, the index is likely to oscillate within defined levels, awaiting a directional breakout.

MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd. Sebi Registration No.: INH000015543

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.