Stock market recap: Indian benchmarks closed marginally higher on Monday after a volatile session, recovering from early losses tied to rising crude oil prices.
Nifty 50 rose 13.15 points, or 0.05%, to settle at 24,583.80, while Sensex added 43.27 points, or 0.06%, to close at 78,542.44, having fallen as much as 200 points intraday. Brent crude climbed more than 1% to around $84.4 per barrel, marking its third consecutive session of gains, as Iran signalled no immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fresh attacks on Gulf shipping heightened supply concerns.
Sentiment improved throughout the day after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased near-term Federal Reserve rate-hike worries, a positive for emerging markets like India. Titan, Hero MotoCorp, and Oil India gained on strong quarterly results. In comparison, Power Finance Corporation and Ola Electric were among the notable losers. IT and Auto stocks led sectoral gains, while Banking names lagged. Market breadth stayed balanced-to-positive, with 1,739 stocks advancing, 1,703 stocks declining, and 118 remaining unchanged on the NSE.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: Neogen Chemicals (current price: ₹2,178)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong specialty chemicals portfolio, leadership in bromine chemistry, growing lithium chemicals business, beneficiary of EV battery growth, strong R&D capabilities, high entry barriers in niche products, capacity expansion supporting growth, import substitution opportunity, beneficiary of China+1 trend, diversified customer base, growing export opportunities, focus on value-added products, long-term battery chemicals opportunity, improving product mix, and strong growth potential.
- Key metrics: P/E: 156.46, 52-week high: ₹2,374.00, volume: ₹108.99 crore
- Technical analysis: 50-EMA Bounce
- Risk factors: Lithium demand uncertainty, raw material price volatility, capacity expansion execution risk, high capital expenditure needs, environmental compliance risks, customer concentration risk, margin pressure from input costs, working capital intensity, competition in specialty chemicals, project ramp-up delays, technology and process risks, forex fluctuation impact, global chemical demand slowdown, battery technology disruption risk, and valuation risk during slower growth.
- Buy: ₹2,156–2,189
- Target price: ₹2,500 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹2,020
Buy: Rishabh Instruments (current price: ₹670)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong electrical measurement portfolio, diversified industrial customer base, strong export presence, beneficiary of industrial automation, growing energy monitoring demand, strong R&D capabilities, wide product portfolio, global manufacturing presence, beneficiary of smart grid investments, expansion in high-value products, long-term electrification tailwinds, established global customer relationships, growing renewable energy opportunities, strong engineering capabilities, and healthy growth potential.
- Key metrics: P/E: 37.25, 52-week high: ₹692.80, volume: ₹32.41 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: Dependence on industrial capex, export demand fluctuations, currency fluctuation risk, raw material price volatility, intense global competition, customer concentration risk, technology obsolescence risk, margin pressure from input costs, economic slowdown affecting demand, supply chain disruptions, working capital requirements, regulatory and compliance risks, new product execution risk, competition from larger global players, and valuation risk during slower growth.
- Buy at: ₹663–673
- Target price: ₹770 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹630
Nifty 50 recap
Indian equities ended Monday’s session on a subdued note, with Nifty 50 closing at 24,583.80, up 13.15 points or 0.05%, after oscillating between 24,511 and 24,621, as investors balanced supportive corporate earnings against geopolitical and crude-oil concerns. Sensex also finished broadly flat. Market breadth was nearly even but marginally positive: 1,739 stocks advanced, 1,703 stocks declined, and 118 remained unchanged, translating into an advance-decline ratio of roughly 1.02:1. Sectoral performance was mixed, with Nifty Realty (+1.35%) leading gains, followed by Private Bank (+0.52%), Consumer Durables (+0.38%), Media (+0.29%), Metal (+0.28%), and IT (+0.27%). Conversely, PSU Bank (-1.67%) was the major laggard, while Oil & Gas, Healthcare, Pharma, FMCG, and Auto ended lower.
From a technical perspective, momentum indicators continue to favour the bulls, albeit with signs of moderation. The 14-day RSI stands at 60, comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating sustained positive momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above its signal line and continues to print positive histogram bars, confirming that the prevailing intermediate-term trend remains constructive. The index is also trading above its 21-day (24,264), 50-day (24,000), and 100-day (23,843) moving averages, highlighting strong trend support. Although it remains marginally below the 200-DMA at 24,758, which continues to act as a key long-term resistance. While momentum remains positive, the flattening price action suggests the market may require a decisive catalyst before extending its next directional move.
Technically, 24,600–24,550 now serves as the immediate support zone, followed by stronger support around 24,400 and the 21-DMA near 24,217. On the upside, 24,675–24,770 represents the first resistance zone, coinciding with the recent swing high and the 200-DMA, while a sustained breakout above this region could pave the way towards 24,900–25,000.
How did Nifty Bank perform?
Bank Nifty ended nearly flat on Monday, slipping 59.50 points, or 0.10%, to close at 57,686.95, as weakness in select PSU Banks offset gains across most private lenders. State Bank of India was the standout laggard, falling 2.39% to ₹1,071 as investors booked profits after last week's sharp rally following a strong June-quarter beat, with profit growth of more than 10% and asset quality at a two-decade best. The broader PSU Bank index extended this softness, slipping around 0.4%. In contrast, private banks stayed resilient: ICICI Bank rose 0.51% to ₹1,428.20, Axis Bank gained 0.69% to ₹1,246.50, Kotak Mahindra Bank added 0.45% to ₹392.50, and HDFC Bank edged up 0.12% to ₹731.90. The sector's steadiness came even as broader markets navigated early weakness from rising crude oil prices tied to continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, before recovering on softer U.S. jobs data. Overall, the session reflected a rotation out of PSU banking gains into more stable private-sector names, keeping the index range-bound.
The RSI is placed at 52, comfortably above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that momentum remains mildly positive despite the day's decline. However, the indicator has flattened, suggesting that bullish momentum has slowed. The MACD remains above the zero line, but the MACD and signal lines have converged significantly. On the other hand, the histogram has almost disappeared, reflecting weakening upside momentum and a lack of strong directional conviction. Although there is no confirmed bearish crossover yet, traders should closely monitor the indicator over the next few sessions. If the RSI sustains above 50 and the MACD remains in positive territory, the broader trend is likely to remain range-bound with a slightly positive bias.
On the technical front, immediate support is placed at the 21 DMA near 57,565, followed by the 200-DMA around 57,480. A decisive breach below these levels could expose the index to the 50-DMA near 56,975, while stronger support is near the 100-DMA at 55,734. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 58,000, followed by the recent swing high zone near 58,400–58,600. The index continues to consolidate after its recent recovery, and a sustained move above the resistance zone could revive bullish momentum. However, with mixed global cues and cautious investor sentiment ahead of key domestic and global macro developments, traders should expect stock-specific action. Meanwhile, the index remains within its current consolidation range.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O'Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd.
Sebi Registration No.: INH000015543
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.