Stock market update: Indian equities rangebound for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, 13 August, as uncertainty over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to keep investors cautious even as crude oil prices declined amid the prospects of weak global demand this year.
The Sensex ended 114 points, or 0.15%, higher at 78,079.96, while the Nifty ended at 24,395.85, down 40 points, or 0.16%. The Nifty Midcap 100 index rose by 0.15%, while the Smallcap 100 index inched up by 0.27%.
Oil price benchmark Brent crude declined 2% to trade near $87 per barrel amid speculations that oil demand may remain weak this year due to slowing global economic growth.
The Indian rupee, meanwhile, slipped 11 paise to close at 95.44 per dollar compared to its previous close of 95.33.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: Gokul Agro Resources Ltd (current price: ₹235)
- Why it’s recommended: Diversified edible oil portfolio, strong refining capabilities, large manufacturing capacity, growing export presence, established distribution network, beneficiary of rising food consumption, diversified product mix, strong sourcing capabilities, expansion in value-added products, growing branded business potential, integrated processing operations, scale-driven cost efficiencies, strong domestic demand, capacity expansion opportunities, and long-term consumption tailwinds.
- Key metrics: P/E: 16.61, 52-week high: ₹249.92, volume: ₹9.00 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: Edible oil price volatility, high dependence on imported oils, currency fluctuation risk, thin commodity business margins, raw material price fluctuations, government duty changes, working capital intensive business, intense industry competition, global commodity cycle exposure, supply chain disruptions, margin pressure from price swings, geopolitical trade risks, regulatory and food safety risks, inventory valuation losses, and earnings volatility from commodity cycles.
- Buy: ₹233–236
- Target price: ₹272 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹218
Buy: Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd (current price: ₹4,714)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong fluorochemicals franchise, leadership in fluoropolymers, high entry barriers, diversified specialty chemicals portfolio, growing EV battery exposure, beneficiary of renewable energy growth, strong export presence, focus on high-value products, expanding fluoropolymer capacity, strong R&D capabilities, import substitution opportunities, beneficiary of China+1 trend, growing semiconductor opportunities, integrated manufacturing operations, and long-term specialty chemicals demand.
- Key metrics: P/E: 80.64, 52-week high: ₹4,958.90, volume: ₹582.91 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: Chemical demand cyclicality, raw material price volatility, high capital expenditure needs, capacity expansion execution risk, environmental compliance risks, fluorochemical regulatory risks, global competition, export demand fluctuations, currency fluctuation impact, margin pressure from oversupply, technology obsolescence risk, working capital requirements, global economic slowdown risk, project ramp-up delays, and valuation risk during slower growth.
- Buy at: ₹4,667–4,738
- Target price: ₹5,500 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹4,400
Nifty 50 performance on 13 August
Indian equities ended marginally lower on Thursday after a range-bound session, with Nifty 50 closing at 24,395.85, down 40.10 points or 0.16%. The index opened at 24,431.60 and traded between 24,311.40 and 24,431.60, recovering from its intraday low but failing to move above the previous close of 24,435.95. Sectoral performance was mixed.
Nifty Realty (+0.97%) and FMCG (+0.84%) led gains, followed by Consumer Durables (+0.45%) and IT (+0.39%), while Metals (-1.05%) were the biggest drag. Private Banks (-0.54%), Financial Services (-0.44%), and Oil & Gas (-0.37%) remained under pressure. Overall market breadth was nearly balanced but marginally negative, with 1,688 stocks advancing, 1,698 declining and 112 unchanged, translating into an advance-decline ratio of roughly 0.99:1.
Nifty 50 witnessed intraday volatility but staged a meaningful recovery from lower levels, indicating buying interest on declines. Notably, the index recovered after taking support near the confluence of its downward-sloping trendline and the 21-DMA, reinforcing the importance of this dynamic technical zone. RSI stands near 53.3, having eased from recent higher levels and slipped below its signal average of around 57.8, suggesting that bullish momentum has moderated.
Importantly, the oscillator remains above the neutral 50 mark and does not signal an oversold condition. MACD also indicates fading momentum, with the histogram turning marginally negative and the MACD and signal lines converging after the recent positive phase.
Technically, 24,300–24,250 remains the immediate support area for the index. A decisive breach below this range could intensify selling pressure and potentially drag the index toward 24,000, which broadly coincides with the 50-day moving average (DMA). On the upside, 24,675–24,770 represents the first key resistance zone, encompassing the recent swing high and the 200-DMA.
A sustained breakout and close above this range would signal an improvement in the underlying price structure and could pave the way for an extension toward 24,900–25,000. Until a decisive breakout occurs on either side, the index is likely to remain range-bound, with price action around these key technical levels determining the near-term directional bias.
Nifty Bank performance
Nifty Bank opened on a negative note and remained under pressure throughout the session, with profit booking emerging after the index tested its intraday high near the opening level. The index opened at 57,799.15, touched a high of 57,799.15, slipped to a low of 57,548.60, and closed at 57,635.25, down 250.60 points or 0.43%. Despite the decline, the index managed to close above its 21-(57,529.37), 200-(57,476.43), and 50-DMA (57,272.13), keeping the broader recovery structure intact.
Price action over recent sessions reflects tight consolidation near 58,000, with repeated rejection at higher levels indicating persistent selling pressure. A decisive breakout from the current compression zone should determine the next directional move.
Momentum indicators remain broadly neutral, reflecting the ongoing consolidation. The RSI stands at 51.53, marginally below its signal average of 52.11, indicating that momentum has softened but remains above the neutral 50 threshold. There is no meaningful bullish or bearish divergence visible on the daily chart.
Meanwhile, MACD momentum has weakened, with the histogram around -9.07 and the MACD and signal lines converging, indicating fading upside momentum and the possibility of continued range-bound trade. Importantly, momentum has not deteriorated enough to confirm a bearish reversal, suggesting that the current phase represents consolidation rather than an established downtrend.
On the downside, immediate support is placed around 57,500–57,475, where the 21- and 200-DMA are clustered, followed by 57,250–57,270 near the 50-DMA. A decisive breakdown below 57,250 could expose 56,800–56,500, while stronger positional support remains around the 100-DMA at 55,859. On the upside, 57,900–58,100 remains the immediate resistance zone, followed by 58,500. The near-term outlook remains range-bound with a mildly positive bias while 57,250 holds.
However, broader Indian equities remain cautious amid elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and expiry-related volatility. Meanwhile, proposed RBI changes to lending-rate spread practices add a banking-specific policy cue. A sustained close above 58,100 would strengthen the case for a fresh upward leg toward 58,500 and beyond.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O'Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.