Stock market recap: Indian equities closed lower on Monday, 13 April, as escalating geopolitical tensions triggered a broad risk-off sentiment. The Sensex fell 702 points, or 0.91%, to 76,847, while the Nifty declined 208 points, or 0.86%, to 23,842, recovering from deeper intraday losses.
The decline followed the collapse of US-Iran peace talks and the US announcement of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears of supply disruptions. Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel, adding to concerns over inflation and India’s fiscal deficit.
Weak global cues and a sharp depreciation in the rupee—to 93.38 against the US dollar—also weighed on sentiment.
Markets were shut on 14 April for a public holiday.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India for 15 April:
Buy: Welspun Corp Ltd (current price: ₹1,005)
- Why it’s recommended: strong order book visibility, global presence across the US, Middle East, and India, demand from oil and gas pipeline projects, diversification into DI pipes and building materials, improving margin profile, government infrastructure push in water and gas pipelines, a healthy balance sheet, and capacity expansion opportunities
- Key metrics: P/E: 20.15, 52-week high: ₹1,017.00, volume: ₹158.57 crore
- Technical analysis: Consolidation based breakout
- Risk factors: high dependence on order inflow, cyclical exposure to the oil and gas sector, raw material price volatility in steel, execution delays in large projects, impact from forex fluctuations, geopolitical risks in export markets, global competition pressure, and margin volatility
- Buy: ₹1,000-1,015
- Target price: ₹1,110 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹950
Buy: Adani Power Ltd (current price: ₹180)
- Why it’s recommended: strong capacity and scale in thermal power, a strong track record of revenue and profit growth, healthy operating and net margins, an improving debt profile with lower debt-to-equity, strong return on equity and profitability ratios, group backing from the Adani ecosystem, benefit from rising power demand in India, and large installed capacity across India
- Key metrics: P/E:30.01, 52-week high: ₹184.40, volume: ₹1,650.43 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: overvaluation concerns with high price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios, high dependence on coal-based power, ESG and environmental risks, weak or negative free cash flow, earnings volatility with recent quarterly decline, regulatory and tariff risks, corporate governance concerns at the group level, and no dividend payout
- Buy at: ₹179-182
- Target price: ₹199 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹170
Nifty 50 performance on 13 April
The Nifty 50 had a weak trading session, opening on a negative note at 23,589.60. The index attempted an early recovery and touched an intraday high of 23,907.40 but failed to sustain higher levels, indicating persistent selling pressure. As the session progressed, profit booking intensified, dragging the index to an intraday low of 23,555.60. Although a mild rebound followed, the index eventually closed at 23,842.65, down 0.86%, reflecting continued overhead supply.
Overall, the price action signals a lack of strong buying conviction at higher levels, with sellers active near resistance zones, keeping near-term sentiment cautious.
From a momentum perspective, the 14-day RSI stands near 51.70, recovering from lower levels and indicating a neutral-to-slightly positive bias. The MACD is showing early signs of a bullish crossover, with histogram bars turning positive, suggesting improving momentum after the recent downtrend. However, both indicators are yet to confirm a decisive trend reversal.
The gradual rise in RSI and improving MACD momentum point to the possibility of a short-term pullback, but sustained strength will depend on confirmation from price action and volumes.
According to O’Neil’s Market Direction framework, the Indian equity market has transitioned to a “Confirmed Uptrend” from a “Rally Attempt.”
On the technical front, immediate support for the Nifty is placed in the 23,500–23,450 zone, aligning with recent swing lows and short-term moving averages. Stronger support is seen near 23,200, which has acted as a base during the recent correction. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 24,200–24,400 range, followed by a key hurdle near 24,700, coinciding with the 50- and 100-day EMA cluster.
Going forward, improving global cues and easing geopolitical tensions could support sentiment. If the index sustains above 24,000, it may attempt a gradual upmove; failure to hold this level could result in further consolidation.
Nifty Bank's performance
The Nifty Bank index had a weak trading session, opening on a negative note at 54,646.00. The index attempted an early recovery and touched an intraday high of 55,752.65 but failed to sustain higher levels, signalling persistent selling pressure. As the session progressed, profit booking intensified, dragging the index to an intraday low of 54,356.20. A mild rebound from lower levels helped limit losses, but the index eventually closed at 55,605.05, down 0.55%, reflecting continued overhead resistance.
Overall, the price action suggests rallies are being sold into, underscoring cautious sentiment and a lack of strong follow-through buying near key resistance zones.
From a momentum standpoint, the 14-day RSI stands near 52.68, reflecting a neutral bias with mild positive undertones as it recovers from lower levels. The MACD is also showing early signs of a bullish crossover, with histogram bars turning positive, indicating improving momentum after the recent correction. However, both indicators remain in the early stages of reversal and require confirmation through sustained price action. The gradual improvement in momentum signals a potential short-term rebound, though the broader trend remains fragile.
Technically, immediate support for Nifty Bank is placed in the 53,600–53,000 zone, aligning closely with the 21-day moving average and offering a near-term cushion. On the upside, resistance is seen at 56,200–56,500, followed by a stronger hurdle in the 57,300–57,500 range, where multiple moving averages converge.
Going forward, easing global concerns and sustained strength in financial stocks could support further upside. A sustained move above 56,000 may trigger momentum-based buying, while failure to hold 55,000 could lead to near-term consolidation.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O'Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.