Stock market recap: Frontline indices, the Sensex and the Nifty 50, ended with decent gains on the monthly expiry day on Tuesday, 25 August, as a decline in oil prices influenced sentiment. Brent crude fell over 3% to around $89 per barrel, its lowest level in a week.
The 30-share pack closed 287 points, or 0.37%, higher at 77,656, while the NSE counterpart settled at 24,335, rising 116 points, or 0.48%. Midcaps also witnessed healthy buying, as the Nifty Midcap 150 rose by 0.45%. However, the Smallcap 250 index slipped 0.15%.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: Karur Vysya Bank Ltd (current price: ₹346)
- Why it’s recommended: RAM Portfolio Reorientation: Structural business rebalancing away from riskier corporate segments toward higher-yielding Retail, Agriculture, and MSME (RAM) sectors has resulted in the RAM portfolio accounting for 86% of total loans. Healthy Financial Accruals: Sustained, strong operational performance supports a superior Return on Assets (RoA) baseline of approximately 1.85%, alongside a strong Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 4.11%.
- Key metrics: P/E: 11.91, 52-week high: ₹351.80, volume: ₹101.00 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline Breakout
- Risk factors: Geographic Concentration Risk: The loan book remains heavily concentrated in Tamil Nadu and other southern Indian states, creating vulnerability to regional economic downturns. MSME Asset Vulnerability: High concentration within the cyclical, inflation-sensitive MSME and textile business verticals leaves the asset book open to economic or regulatory export shocks.
- Buy: ₹343–348
- Target price: ₹400 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹327
Buy: Gokul Agro Resources Ltd (current price: ₹253)
- Why it’s recommended: Capacity and Product Expansion: The group is pursuing significant, multi-year capacity expansion, supported by a planned ₹450 crore capex programme for FY27 and FY28. Port-Based Logistical Advantage: Processing facilities strategically situated near critical maritime ports lower cost overheads and streamline heavily import-dependent raw material supply chains.
- Key metrics: P/E: 17.13, 52-week high: ₹259.50, volume: ₹64.71 crore
- Technical analysis: Consolidation-based breakout
- Risk factors: Commodity Price Volatility: Operating margins remain highly vulnerable to severe fluctuations in global crude palm oil, soy, and international agro-commodity spot pricing. Intense Industry Competition: The edible oil market segment suffers from intense price competition driven by an oversupply of unorganized, localized small-scale processing mills.
- Buy at: ₹250–254
- Target price: ₹285 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹238
Nifty 50 performance on 25 August
Indian equities staged a late-session recovery on Tuesday, with Nifty 50 closing at the day’s high of 24,334.55, up 115.50 points or 0.48%, after opening at 24,175.75 and touching an intraday low of 24,115.45. The rebound was notable given cautious early trade amid elevated crude prices and geopolitical concerns in West Asia.
On the sectoral front, buying was broad-based, led by Healthcare (+1.09%), Consumer Durables (+0.93%), Pharma (+0.85%), and PSU Banks (+0.75%). Meanwhile, Private Banks (-0.20%) and Metals (-0.07%) were the key laggards. Despite the benchmark recovery, overall market breadth remained weak, with 1,672 stocks advancing, 1,843 stocks declining, and 122 remaining unchanged, implying an advance-decline ratio of about 0.91:1 and indicating that gains were concentrated in select pockets rather than across the market.
From a price-action perspective, the index continues to trade within the rising structure established from the April lows, while the recent pullback has respected the ascending trendline, keeping the broader recovery pattern intact. However, the index remains below its longer-term moving average of around 24,673, suggesting that the broader trend has yet to turn decisively bullish. The RSI stands at 52.39, marginally above its signal average and the neutral 50 mark, reflecting improving but not yet strong momentum; importantly, it remains well away from overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to show subdued momentum, with the histogram in negative territory and the MACD structure indicating that bullish momentum has weakened following the early-August advance.
Nifty 50 staged a sharp rebound and closed above its 50-day moving average (DMA), signalling an improvement in near-term sentiment. On the upside, the 21-DMA around 24,400 is likely to act as the immediate hurdle. A sustained close above this level would strengthen short-term momentum and could pave the way for a broader recovery toward 24,700, where the 200-DMA is currently positioned.
Conversely, failure to sustain the recovery could keep the index vulnerable to renewed selling pressure. A decisive break below 24,100–24,000 would weaken the technical structure and could extend the corrective move towards 23,900–23,800.
How did Nifty Bank perform?
Nifty Bank opened on a negative note at 57,360.65, below its previous close of 57,525.95. The index initially weakened to an intraday low of 57,231.25, where buying interest near the 50-DMA triggered a recovery toward the day’s high of 57,653.85. However, profit booking emerged at higher levels, trimming the recovery, and the index eventually closed at 57,514.20, down 11.75 points or 0.02%.
Despite the marginal decline, the index closed above its opening level, reflecting buying support at lower levels. The session formed a small-bodied bullish candle with wicks on both sides, indicating indecision. The close marginally below the 5- and 21-DMA, combined with repeated rejection near 57,650, suggests continued consolidation without firm directional conviction.
The RSI stood at 50.37, marginally below its signal average of 51.22, indicating neutral momentum and a balance between buying and selling pressure. The indicator continues to hover around the midpoint, consistent with the ongoing sideways price structure, while no meaningful divergence is visible. The MACD line at 39.30 remains below the signal line of 66.47, maintaining a bearish crossover, while the histogram remains negative at −27.17. However, both lines are positioned above the zero line, and the negative histogram is relatively shallow, suggesting weak short-term momentum rather than a confirmed downtrend. A sustained move in the RSI above 55, accompanied by a bullish MACD crossover, would strengthen the recovery outlook.
Immediate support is placed at 57,230–57,250, aligning with the day’s low and the 50-DMA at 57,245.94. A decisive close below this zone could pull the index toward 56,950–57,000, followed by the 200-DMA near 56,700. Resistance is positioned at 57,650–57,800. A volume-backed breakout above this range could open the way toward 58,000–58,300.
The index may remain range-bound until either boundary is breached. The RBI’s neutral policy stance supports the banking outlook, while elevated crude prices, rupee weakness and geopolitical uncertainty may restrict risk appetite. Holding above the 50-DMA would favour consolidation with a mildly positive bias, while a breakdown below 57,230 could strengthen bearish momentum.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.