The Indian benchmark indices snapped their two-day winning streak on Monday. The Sensex shed 372 points (0.48%) to close at 76,728.37, while the Nifty 50 slipped ~110 points (0.46%) to settle at 23,946.25. Investor sentiment turned cautious following renewed geopolitical friction in West Asia, as fresh military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran pushed crude oil prices higher, prompting profit-booking across major sectors.
The broader market also felt the heat, with the Nifty Midcap 100 dropping 0.37% and the Smallcap 100 index declining 0.62%. Market breadth remained visibly weak, heavily favoring decliners over advances in a 3:2 ratio. On the sectoral front, defensive buying emerged in Pharma and Metals, which managed to close in the green.
Conversely, interest-rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors bore the brunt of the selloff, led by significant corrections in Automobile and Oil & Gas heavyweights. From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 breached its immediate psychological threshold of 24,000, signaling an increase in near-term selling pressure and potentially shifting the index into a brief consolidation phase after recent gains.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (current price: ₹2,900)
- Why it’s recommended: Leading commodity exchange in India, strong market leadership position, asset-light business model, high operating leverage, beneficiary of rising trading volumes, strong network effects, recurring transaction-based revenue, healthy cash-rich balance sheet, beneficiary of commodity market growth, new product launch opportunities, strong regulatory entry barriers, increasing participation from institutions, digital trading ecosystem advantage, high return ratios, long-term financialization tailwinds.
- Key metrics: P/E: NA, 52-week high: ₹3,480.00, volume: ₹2,536.73 crore
- Technical analysis: Trendline breakout
- Risk factors: Dependence on trading volumes, regulatory changes affecting derivatives, intense competition from exchanges, technology and system outage risks, cybersecurity threats, revenue volatility from market activity, slower commodity market participation, product approval delays, dependence on regulatory policies, market concentration risk, economic slowdown affecting trading activity, operational and compliance risks, limited revenue diversification, valuation risk after strong re-rating, earnings linked to market sentiment.
- Buy: ₹2,871–2,915
- Target price: ₹3,250 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹2,780
Buy: Zydus Wellness Limited (current price: ₹569)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong portfolio of health-focused brands, leading presence in wellness products, strong brand recognition, asset-light business model, beneficiary of rising health awareness, diversified product portfolio, consistent cash flow generation, strong distribution network, pricing power through established brands, expansion into new wellness categories, healthy balance sheet, long-term consumer demand tailwinds, strong parent group support, innovation-driven product launches, defensive FMCG business model.
- Key metrics: P/E: 67.15, 52-week high: ₹577.50, volume: ₹881.13 crore
- Technical analysis: Flat base pattern breakout
- Risk factors: Intense competition in FMCG sector, rising raw material costs, margin pressure from input inflation, dependence on key brands, slower discretionary consumer spending, regulatory changes in food products, limited international presence, high advertising and marketing expenses, changing consumer preferences, supply chain disruptions, execution risk in new product launches, competition from private labels, valuation risk due to premium pricing, economic slowdown affecting demand, earnings growth moderation risk.
- Buy at: ₹563–572
- Target price: ₹640 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹537
Nifty 50: How the benchmark index performed on June 29
Indian equity markets ended lower, with the Nifty 50 declining ~110 points (0.46%) to close at 23,946.25. The Sensex also finished in the red as investors booked profits after last week’s gains amid cautious global sentiment and concerns over elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical developments. Selling pressure was broad-based, led by Auto (-2.08%), Media (-1.32%), Oil & Gas (-1.18%), and IT (-1.07%), while defensive sectors outperformed, with Pharma (+1.03%), Health Care (+0.94%), and Metal (+0.80%) ending in positive territory. Market breadth remained weak, reflecting the risk-off mood, with the overall advance-decline ratio at 1,330 advances against 2,036 declines (104 stocks unchanged), indicating broader participation on the downside.
The Nifty 50 ended the session on a weak note, forming a bearish candle after failing to sustain above the short-term moving averages, reflecting persistent selling pressure at higher levels. Price action continues to remain confined within a broader consolidation range, while the index is trading below the downward-sloping 20-DMA, indicating that near-term momentum remains subdued. Notably, the index has continued to hover between its 50- and 100-DMA for the last 9–10 trading sessions, highlighting a phase of consolidation and indecision as neither bulls nor bears have established a decisive advantage.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is placed at 53.9, remaining above the neutral 50 mark but turning slightly lower, indicating a moderation in positive momentum without signaling a strong directional bias. Meanwhile, the MACD remains above its signal line and in positive territory, although the histogram has begun to flatten, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually losing strength.
The Nifty 50 continued to consolidate between the 50- and 100-DMA. From a technical perspective, the index remains positioned above a key downward-sloping trendline, indicating that the broader recovery structure remains intact despite ongoing consolidation. The 23,800–23,650 zone remains a crucial area to monitor, as sustained trading above this range would reinforce the prevailing positive bias and reduce the risk of a deeper corrective move. On the upside, a decisive close above the 100-DMA, currently placed near 24,200, would be a significant technical development, signaling renewed buying interest and strengthening the case for a continuation of the recovery trend. Such a breakout could pave the way for an advance toward the 24,350–24,600 zone over the near term, supported by improving momentum indicators and a gradually strengthening market structure.
How did the Nifty Bank perform yesterday?
The Nifty Bank index opened on a positive note at 58,191.45 and witnessed profit booking after testing higher levels during the session. The index touched an intraday high of 58,318.05, slipped to a low of 57,637.25, and eventually settled at 57,727.35, down 449.70 points (-0.77%). The formation of a long bearish candle near the recent swing high suggests that selling pressure emerged after an extended recovery, indicating short-term exhaustion among bulls. Despite the decline, the index continues to trade above the 10- and 21-DMA, reflecting that the broader recovery structure remains intact. However, the rejection near higher levels points to caution, as traders preferred to book profits ahead of a key resistance zone.
The RSI is placed around 61.92, remaining above the neutral 50 mark, which indicates that bullish momentum is still present despite the latest correction. However, the RSI has started to ease from recent highs, hinting at a moderation in upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, although the histogram has begun to contract, suggesting that bullish momentum is gradually losing strength. These indicators collectively point toward a healthy pullback rather than an outright trend reversal, but confirmation from upcoming sessions will be crucial.
Immediate support is placed around 57,600–57,500, followed by the 50-DMA (~57,143) and the 100-DMA (~56,374). A decisive break below these levels could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the 21-DMA, near 56,088. Immediate resistance is at the 58,300–58,500 range. A sustained move above this hurdle will likely open the path toward 59,000 and higher. Technically, the broader structure remains constructive as long as key moving averages hold, although global market sentiment, institutional flows, and developments surrounding interest rate expectations could influence short-term direction. A decisive breakout above resistance or a failure to hold immediate support is likely to determine the next meaningful trend.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.