Stocks to buy for long term amid market crash: Ventura's Vinit Bolinjkar suggests 8 shares, sees 12–62% return potential

Stocks to buy for long term: The Indian stock market witnesses a strong across-segment selloff on Monday, March 23, amid rising US-Iran tensions, crude oil prices sustaining above the $110 per barrel mark, the rupee's fall to a fresh record low, and massive foreign capital outflows.

The Nifty 50 is now about 15% down from its record high of 26,373, scaled on January 5 this year. In March alone, the index has lost more than 10%.

However, experts believe this is the time to buy stocks for the long term, as the end of the war will ease crude oil prices, which can trigger a strong upside in the market.

Moreover, experts say that despite the impact of elevated crude oil prices on India's growth-inflation dynamics, resilient domestic demand and government capital expenditure remain key positive factors that can underpin the market.

"This is a stock-picker's market. RBI cutting rates, benign inflation, and GDP growth of 6.5% indicate the market will rise after global headwinds fade. We expect a 12–16% return for the Nifty 50 in FY27," said Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura.

Bolinjkar recommends 8 stocks to buy for the long term, with all these picks driven by domestic demand and minimal geopolitical exposure, offering 12–62% return for individual stocks.

Stock picks for the long term

Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) | Previous close: ₹15.44 | Target price: ₹25 | Upside potential: 62%

Bolinjkar pointed out that HCC is a century-old turnaround play with niche expertise in hydro, tunnelling, and nuclear projects, supported by a ₹600 crore QIP for deleveraging and the divestment of Steiner AG, while ₹7,000 crore in pending arbitration claims offers free optionality.

"With FY25 E&C revenue of ₹5,257 crore, it remains a high-risk, high-reward bet. Limit to 5–8% of a portfolio," said Bolinjkar.

NBCC (India) | Previous close: ₹83.91 | Target price: ₹115 | Upside potential: 37%

Bolinjkar highlighted NBCC's asset-light PMC model, as it earns 8–12% fees on government projects with zero construction risk. ROE is 25%, while there is zero debt.

"The company has more than ₹70,000 crore order book across Delhi redevelopment, hospitals, and border infra. Government-to-government business is immune to geopolitics," said Bolinjkar.

VA Tech Wabag | Previous close: ₹1,236.90 | Target price: ₹1,550 | Upside potential: 25%

As per Bolinjkar, VA Tech Wabag is India’s only listed pure-play water technology company. It has a strong ₹16,300 crore-plus order book providing over three years of revenue visibility.

"In Q3 FY26, profit rose 24% with an EBITDA margin of 13.7%, while the balance sheet remains robust with net cash exceeding ₹1,000 crore. The ₹11 lakh crore Jal Jeevan Mission offers a long-term domestic growth tailwind, and the business is fully insulated from tariff-related risks," said Bolinjkar.

HDFC Life Insurance Company | Previous close: ₹623.65 | Target price: ₹780 | Upside potential: 25%

Bolinjkar said HDFC Life Insurance Company has reached an all-time high market share of 11.1% in premiums, supported by a strong bancassurance network of over 9,400 HDFC Bank branches. VNB margins are trending above 27%, with a healthy solvency ratio of 180%, while PAT for 9M FY26 has grown 7%.

"A rate-cut environment is likely to boost ULIP demand, and with its entirely domestic business model, it carries zero geopolitical risk," said Bolinjkar.

Canara Bank | Previous close: ₹136.44 | Target price: ₹165 | Upside potential: 21%

Bolinjkar highlighted that Canara Bank's asset quality has improved sharply, with GNPA declining from 8.8% in FY20 to 2.08%, supported by a strong 94% provision coverage ratio and an ROE of over 16%.

Despite this, the stock trades at around 1.1 times book value—well below the 2.5–3.5 times multiples of private sector peers.

"Upcoming IPOs of its subsidiaries—Canara HSBC Life, Canara Robeco AMC, and Canara Securities—serve as key value-unlocking catalysts, while rising FII holdings reinforce the broader PSU bank re-rating story," said Bolinjkar.

ICICI Bank | Previous close: ₹1,245.40 | Target price: ₹1,500 | Upside potential: 20%

Bolinjkar underscored that ICICI Bank is one of the best-managed large banks, delivering a 17% ROE with strong asset quality (nearly 2% GNPA) and over 78% provision coverage.

"Its largely domestic retail loan book (55%+)—spanning mortgages, auto, and SME—has no exposure to global trade risks. The ongoing rate-cut cycle is likely to support funding costs and treasury gains, making it a predictable 15%+ earnings compounder," said Bolinjkar.

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) | Previous close: ₹3,434.80 | Target price: ₹4,000 | Upside potential: 16%

"With a ₹5.6 lakh crore order book—the largest in India’s private sector—L&T has strong growth visibility across defence, green energy, data centres (including the L&T–NVIDIA JV announced in February 2026), nuclear, and metro projects," said Bolinjkar.

"Execution margins in its engineering and construction (E&C) business are expanding to over 8.5%, supported by an 18% revenue growth outlook. The stock is currently about 23% below its ₹4,440 peak, making it a relatively low-risk proxy for India’s infrastructure growth," Bolinjkar said.

Apar Industries | Previous close: ₹9,673 | Target price: ₹10,800 | Upside potential: 12%

Bolinjkar highlighted that Apar Industries is the world’s largest aluminium conductor maker, India’s leading renewables cable player, and the third-largest global producer of transformer oil—three businesses aligned with the same growth wave of ₹9 lakh crore in T&D grid modernisation and renewable energy expansion.

Its premium conductor share has risen from 20% to 41% over seven years, driving a fivefold increase in EBITDA per tonne. FY25 revenue reached an all-time high of ₹18,581 crore, with ₹1,300 crore in capex underway.

"Ventura expects a 21% earnings CAGR through FY28, while the stock has corrected about 23% from its highs," said Bolinjkar.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.