Stocks to buy for long term: From Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel to SBI— Axis Securities' analyst recommends 5 shares

Stocks to buy for the long term: The Indian stock market is witnessing strong selling pressure amid renewed concerns over Trump’s tariffs, heavy foreign capital outflows, and rising geopolitical uncertainties.

Mixed third-quarter earnings have so far failed to lift sentiment, while investors remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2026 amid concerns that the government’s focus on fiscal consolidation could lead to measured capital expenditure, potentially denting economic growth momentum.

The benchmark Nifty 50 hit a record high of 26,373.20 on January 5, but failed to hold altitude; the index is down nearly 2% in the current month so far.

Experts expect the market to remain stock-specific in the short term due to the ongoing Q3 earnings season and global uncertainties. They say investors should buy stocks with healthy fundamentals on dips at this juncture for the long term.

Uttam Kumar Srimal, Senior Research Analyst at Axis Securities, have recommended five stocks to buy for the long term. Let's take a look:

Stock picks for long term

Bajaj Finance | Previous close: ₹945.95 | Target price: ₹1,200 | Upside potential: 27%

The analyst highlighted that Bajaj Finance reported a robust festive season (Navratri – Diwali) business growth driven by a strong consumption-led growth.

This was supported by the structural reforms in income tax and GST, lifting consumer sentiment and spurring consumption.

During Q2, credit costs remained elevated, driven by stress in the 2W/3W and MSME portfolios.

Management indicated that the rise in GNPA had a seasonal component, though MSME (+6 bps) and the captive business (+12 bps) contributed more significantly.

Bajaj Finance has taken corrective actions in MSME and expects credit costs to taper through the second half (H2). The captive 2W/3W book is being run down, with its nearly 9% contribution to credit costs likely to fall meaningfully in H2 and further in FY27.

"We expect Bajaj Finance to continue its growth trajectory, reporting a consistent, nearly 24-25% CAGR AUM growth over the medium term, with growth resuming from FY27 onwards, with contribution from the core existing products and a further push from the scale-up of the new products. We expect Bajaj Finance to deliver a strong AUM, NII, and earnings growth of 25%, 25%, and 24% CAGR, respectively, over FY27-28E," said Srimal.

Bharti Airtel | Previous close: ₹2,022.50 | Target price: ₹2,530 | Upside potential: 25%

Srimal underscored that Bharti Airtel leads the industry in ARPU, with management expecting further improvement from the current ₹256, compared to Reliance's ₹211.

This growth is driven by a more diverse customer base, continued migration from 2G to 4G/5G, and increasing adoption of value-added services.

The company remains on track to reach its ARPU target of ₹300, supported by rising data consumption and deeper rural penetration.

Bharti Airtel's business fundamentals remain strong, with continued improvements across key metrics.

Management anticipates sustained revenue and profit growth driven by expanding rural distribution, network investments, and increasing 4G coverage.

The company also sees strategic opportunities in tower sales, minority investments, and potential IPOs in mobile money.

"Bharti Airtel does not anticipate any immediate significant capex despite the ongoing 5G rollout. Management expects capex levels to remain stable, with investments primarily directed toward broadband expansion, enterprise solutions, and data centres," said Srimal.

State Bank of India (SBI) | Previous close: ₹1,028.35 | Target price: ₹1,135 | Upside potential: 10%

According to Srimal, SBI’s strong credit growth momentum is expected to sustain, driven by robust performance in (a) home loans (projected at 15-16% growth), (b) revival in Xpress Credit, and (c) improving growth traction in the corporate segment.

The bank has visibility of meaningful acceleration in corporate growth, supported by a strong sanction pipeline of ₹7 trillion, of which nearly 50% has already been sanctioned and is awaiting disbursement.

"We pencil-in healthy credit growth sustaining at nearly 13% CAGR over FY26 28E," said Srimal.

In Q2, SBI’s domestic and global NIMs expanded by 7bps QoQ, each driven by effective liability management.

The bank is taking conscious steps towards optimising the CoF by reducing reliance on bulk deposits and focusing efforts on CASA mobilisation.

SBI’s management remains confident of NIMs sustaining at 3%+ over the medium term.

Apart from the core banking, SBI’s subsidiaries are expected to continue adding further value.

The bank has a strong presence in various financial services operations, most of which are generating stable returns and support the overall performance of the bank.

"SBI’s performance has been the best amongst the larger banks, and the bank remains well-poised to sustain its performance, supported by the management’s focus on deepening its liability franchise, allocating capital to higher RoRWA assets, maintaining a disciplined pricing approach, and leveraging tech to drive operating efficiency," said Srimal.

Sansera Engineering | Previous close: ₹1,778.20 | Target price: ₹1,950 | Upside potential: 10%

Srimal said Sansera’s aerospace, defence and semiconductor (ADS) segment continues to exhibit strong performance, reaffirming its position as a key growth engine for the company.

Segment margins remain significantly above the company average, estimated at 25–30%, and are currently trending toward the higher end of the range.

The ADS business holds a robust cumulative order backlog exceeding ₹3,950 crore (lifetime value through FY30), ensuring strong multi-year revenue visibility.

"Given factors such as a higher sales mix in non-auto ICE components, increased premiumisation trend, a focused approach on improving margin trends, strong ability to generate operating cash flows, and capacity expansion plans, we expect revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to grow at CAGR of 12%,14%, and 21%, respectively, over FY26E-28E," said Srimal.

APL Apollo Tubes | Previous close: ₹1,934.70 | Target price: ₹2,100 | Upside potential: 8.5%

Srimal highlighted that APL Apollo Tubes is the leader in the structural steel tubes market in India with the largest saleable capacity of 4.5 MT.

It targets to expand its current capacity from 4.5 MTPA to 6.8 MTPA by FY28. The expansion will help it cater to the virgin East Indian market and high-margin international markets.

The company's vision is to expand its capacity to 10 MTPA by FY30, providing a growth tailwind in the longer term.

India's structural steel tube market is expected to grow by a 10% CAGR from 9.0MT to 17.3MT over 2024-30.

Out of this, the hot-rolled coil-based structural steel tube market (APL Apollo's addressable market) is expected to grow faster at a 20% CAGR over the same period, increasing from 4.5MT to 13.3MT.

With expected demand recovery and higher government spending in H2FY26, APL is targeting to gain sustainable market share and 30% ROCE.

"With the growth drivers intact, we believe APL Apollo Tubes is well-positioned to capture India’s infrastructure growth. We project EBITDA CAGR of 29% over FY25-27E," said Srimal.

Read all market-related news here

Read more stories by Nishant Kumar

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.