Stocks to buy or sell: Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Sec suggests buying NMDC shares on 19 January 2026

Stock market today: Indian stock markets started the week on a negative note on Monday, weighed down by major companies such as Reliance and ICICI Bank, which reported quarterly profits that fell short of expectations. Additionally, Wipro experienced a decline due to a disappointing revenue projection for the upcoming March quarter.

The Nifty 50 index dipped by 0.45% to 25,582, while the Sensex decreased by 0.4% to 83,224.86, reported at 9:17 IST.

Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities

1. Indian equities benchmark concluded the volatile week on a flat note to settle at 25,694 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Sectoral performances remained mixed with Metal, PSU Banks and IT remained in limelight while Pharma, Realty and Auto remained laggards. The weekly price action formed a Doji candle, indicating indecisiveness, a close above the doji high (25,900) would be the first indicator of end of the ongoing corrective phase.
2. Notably, index is now forming higher base around its 100-day EMA (25,626), coinciding with the long-term trend line which has been held since covid low, where supportive efforts clearly emerged. This support helped arrest the decline and enabled the index to decisively reclaim 25,700 mark on weekly basis, reinforcing the importance of this support zone.
3. Going ahead, the upcoming week will be crucial as several index heavy weight stocks are scheduled to report their Q3 earnings. A positive earnings outlook from these leaders could significantly improve market sentiment.
4. Over the past two months, the Nifty 50 has remained confined to a narrow range of 25,300-26,300, driven by uncertainty surrounding US-India bilateral negotiation and heightened global volatility. We expect this consolidation to continue, with stock-specific movements gaining prominence as the Q3 earnings season unfolds.
5. Since October 2025, intermittent corrections of 3–4% have presented selective buying opportunities, followed by gradual recoveries in subsequent weeks. With the current ~3.4% correction already in place and oversold technical conditions, aggressive selling is not recommended. Focus should remain on accumulating quality stocks with strong fundamentals as key support is placed at 25300, based on following observations:

a) 4% correction from the all-time high, around 25,320

b) 61.8% retracement of the previous up-move (24,580–26,325) at 25,270

c) 200-day EMA that has been held since April 2025, at 25,150

Our positive bias is further validated by following observations:

1. The Nifty 500 has surged nearly 24% from its April 2025 lows and currently trades just 4% below its all-time high set in September 2024. While this may initially raise concerns about the market losing momentum, however a deeper look at market breadth tells a more encouraging story.
2. Historically, market breadth bottoms when the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day SMA falls below 15%, while rallies typically peak only when this figure approaches 90%.
3. Currently, this metric stands near 39%, well below exhaustion levels and still beneath equilibrium. This suggests a large universe of stocks remains under-participated, leaving ample room for further upside and increasing the probability of the index eventually surpassing its previous highs and entering the next leg of the uptrend.

Key Monitorable

a) Q3-FY26 earnings

b) US-India Trade Deal

c) US GDP data

d) BOJ policy rate

e) Brent Crude Oil has faced resistance near $67, being 38.2% retracement of its previous decline. Further decline in Brent crude oil bodes well for domestic market.

Stocks To Buy This Week - Dharmesh Shah

Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying NMDC shares.

Buy NMDC shares in the range of ₹80-83. He has NMDC share price target of ₹94 with a stop loss of ₹76.

Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 16/01/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.

The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.