Tata Motors CV share price gets back-to-back bullish calls from top brokerages. Is it time to buy?

Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV) share price continued its winning streak, jumping another 4% in Tuesday’s trade, December 23, to hit the day’s high of ₹428.20, as it remained under investors’ radar following a series of bullish calls from top brokerage firms amid an anticipated recovery in the domestic business.

Japanese brokerage firm Nomura, on Monday, initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘buy’ rating and expects it to reach ₹481 per share, indicating an upside potential of 40% from the stock’s recent closing price.

Nomura estimates that the company’s India business will benefit from an anticipated upcycle, led by Tata Motors CV’s dominant 46% market share in the domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment in FY25. It expects domestic volumes to grow 10% in FY26 and FY27 and 5% in FY28.

The expected rebound is attributed to rising freight rates, improving profitability for fleet operators, and an aging vehicle base, with the average fleet age estimated at around 10 years. Nomura added that regulatory changes and expected price increases could trigger pre-buying activity in FY27–FY28, further supporting volumes.

JPMorgan, Ambit Capital initiate coverage, issue bullish calls

During the last week, the Tata Group company received a positive outlook from JPMorgan, which initiated coverage on the stock with an ‘Overweight’ rating and set a target price of ₹475 per share, citing a modest recovery in the commercial vehicle (CV) segment after three years of stagnation.

The brokerage also highlighted the company’s pricing discipline among leading players and the value-accretive acquisition of Italy-based Iveco amid a bottoming EU truck cycle.

Bank of America expects the company to witness a recovery in both its domestic and European businesses. It estimated a 15% CAGR in EBITDA for FY26–FY28 and also forecast steady market share gains for Tata Motors, supported by margin discipline, lower regulatory risk, and a return on capital employed of 35%.

The brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹475 apiece, in line with JPMorgan.

Meanwhile, on December 9, domestic brokerage firm Ambit Capital initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and set a target price of ₹430 per share.

Ambit Capital noted that the IVECO–TMCV combination significantly expands the company’s total addressable market (TAM) to over ₹2 trillion in potential revenue. This strategic move is expected to support revenue diversification and unlock potential synergies of up to 0.5% of combined revenues over time.

Historically, Ashok Leyland was the only listed OEM player in the commercial vehicle space. The listing of TMCV has broadened the investment universe, the brokerage added.

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