Nifty continues to face overhead pressure after failing to sustain above the downward sloping trendline, which has acted as a dynamic resistance since early December. The rejection near 26,117 and failure to hold above 26,100 further confirms short-term supply in that region
Three Stocks to Buy Today, Ankush Bajaj’s Recommendations
Buy: National Aluminium Co. Ltd. (NALCO)
Why it’s recommended: NALCO is exhibiting strong bullish momentum supported by high trend strength. The stock is trading firmly above short-term support zones and is part of the broader metals sector rally. The daily RSI at 62 suggests positive momentum that is not yet overbought, while the MACD at +2 shows a clean positive crossover, reinforcing the bullish bias. Most notably, the ADX at 52 reflects a very strong trend strength, signaling a well-established uptrend with potential for further upside.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): 62 — bullish momentum
MACD (12,26): +2 — positive crossover
ADX (14): 52 — strong trend in motion
Technical view: Holding above ₹301 keeps the uptrend intact, with an upside target of ₹318.
Risk factors: The stock is sensitive to global aluminum price volatility and policy cues related to mining.
Buy at: ₹306.85
Target price: ₹318
Stop loss: ₹301
Buy: NMDC Ltd
Why it’s recommended: NMDC is showing signs of accumulation after a consolidation phase. The RSI at 52 suggests early-stage positive momentum, while the MACD at +0.15 reflects a mild bullish crossover. The ADX at 28 indicates a strengthening trend, though still in a developing phase. Price action suggests that the stock could witness a short-term breakout above resistance levels as broader metal stocks stay in focus.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): 52 — momentum building up
MACD (12,26): +0.15 — mild positive signal
ADX (14): 28 — trend gaining strength
Technical view: Sustaining above ₹81.20 supports bullish continuation toward ₹85.
Risk factors: Subject to fluctuations in global iron ore prices and government mining policies.
Buy at: ₹82.60
Target price: ₹85
Stop loss: ₹81.20
Buy: Vedanta Ltd (VEDL)
Why it’s recommended: Vedanta remains in a broad uptrend and is currently consolidating above support levels. The RSI at 51 suggests neutral-to-positive strength, while the MACD at +0.67 confirms a recent bullish crossover. The ADX at 21 indicates a forming trend that may gain strength if momentum sustains. Given its positioning within the metals space and favorable technical setup, a breakout toward ₹612 looks probable.
Key metrics: RSI (14-day): 51 — neutral-to-positive momentum
MACD (12,26): +0.67 — fresh positive crossover
ADX (14): 21 — early trend development
Technical view: Holding above ₹595 will keep the bullish setup valid, with potential upside to ₹612.
Risk factors: Exposure to commodity pricing risks and global market sentiment on metals.
Buy at: ₹600.95
Target price: ₹612
Stop loss: ₹595
Market Recap
On Friday, 26 December, the market ended on a cautious note as benchmark indices witnessed mild selling pressure throughout the session. The Nifty 50 declined 99.80 points or 0.38% to close at 26,042.30, after moving between 26,144.20 and 26,008.60 during the day. The Sensex slipped 367.25 points or 0.43% to settle at 85,408.70, despite opening on a firmer note.
The Bank Nifty also remained under pressure, falling 172.25 points or 0.29% to close at 59,011.35, as weakness in select banking and financial stocks capped any recovery attempt.
Sectoral performance was mixed. On the positive side, the Metal Index outperformed, rising 0.59% to 10,806.15, followed by the PSE Index, which gained 0.46% to 9,759.50. The Consumer Durables Index also ended higher, up 0.34% at 36,823.70, supported by selective buying interest.
On the downside, the IT Index emerged as the top laggard, sliding 1.03% to 38,572.30, weighed down by profit booking in large-cap tech stocks. The Media Index declined 0.62% to 1,410.95, while the Auto Index slipped 0.52% to 27,739.85, adding to overall market pressure.
Nifty Technical Outlook – December 29 2025
On December 27, 2025, the Nifty 50 closed marginally lower at 26,042.30, down 99.80 points or 0.38%, marking a day of subdued trading activity and signaling hesitation near key resistance levels. After opening on a weaker note, the index gradually declined through the session, facing rejection from the 26,200 zone, which coincides with both a previous swing high and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the recent fall.
Technically, Nifty continues to face overhead pressure after failing to sustain above the downward sloping trendline, which has acted as a dynamic resistance since early December. The rejection near 26,117 and failure to hold above 26,100 further confirms short-term supply in that region. On the 15-minute chart, price action suggests that the index may now drift toward the Fibonacci support band between 25,982 and 25,931, which also coincides with minor swing lows.
On the hourly timeframe, Nifty is trading below both its 20- and 40-hour moving averages, placed at 26,139 and 26,072 respectively. Momentum indicators reflect a loss of strength, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40, approaching the lower bound, and the MACD turning negative at –4, following a recent bearish crossover. These indicate potential for further downside in the very near term unless a strong reversal takes place.
On the daily chart, however, Nifty still holds above its 20-DMA at 26,007 and 40-DEMA at 25,892, maintaining a mildly bullish bias in the medium term. The daily RSI remains neutral at 52, and the MACD stands at +52, showing some positive traction, though momentum appears to be slowing. Unless the index reclaims 26,200 decisively, upward continuation looks uncertain.
In the derivatives segment, the option data paints a clearly bearish picture. The total Call Open Interest (OI) surged to 21.61 crore, far outweighing the Put OI at 14.19 crore, resulting in a negative OI differential of –7.42 crore, reflecting rising bearish positioning. Notably, the maximum Call OI is seen at the 26,200 strike, confirming a strong resistance zone. On the flip side, Put writers exited positions, with total Put OI dropping by 31.63 lakh, while Call OI jumped by 5.73 crore, strengthening the bearish short-term bias.
In summary, the Nifty index appears to be under near-term pressure after facing rejection from a key supply zone and breaking below short-term hourly moving averages. Unless the index reclaims the 26,100–26,200 zone convincingly, weakness may persist, with support seen around 25,931. A breakdown below this could extend the correction toward 25,726, the previous swing low. On the upside, a strong close above 26,230 would be needed to restore bullish momentum.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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