Tata Group stock hits 52-week low, loses nearly 45% year-to-date; opportunity for value buying?

Trent share price slipped by more than 2% in morning trade on the BSE on Thursday, December 11, to hit its 52-week low. The stock opened at ₹4,046.55 against its previous close of ₹4,018 but failed to hold altitude and dropped 2.2% to its 52-week low of ₹3,931.45. If the stock ends lower, it will be its fifth consecutive session of losses.

Trent's share price has been under pressure since November. On a monthly scale, it is down over 7% this month after an over 9% decline in November. Overall, the stock has declined by over 16% in less than two months. Year-to-date, the Tata Group stock has plunged by nearly 45%, compared to a 7.5% gain in the equity benchmark Sensex. Trent shares hit their 52-week high of ₹7,490 on January 3.

Trent shares: Opportunity for value buying?

Trent shares came under renewed pressure after the company reported its September quarter earnings.

Trent's consolidated profit after tax for the September quarter of the current financial year (Q2FY26) rose 11.45% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹373.42 crore, while revenue from operations increased 16% YoY to ₹4,817.68 crore.

EBITDA rose 21% YoY to ₹843.53 crore, while EBITDA margin rose by 7 basis points YoY to 17.5%.

According to Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, the stock's long-term investment perspective remains structurally strong, but its recent correction since November reflects near-term concerns rather than a breakdown in fundamentals.

Srivastava highlighted that the company continues to demonstrate robust execution with 16% revenue growth, healthy EBITDA, stable gross margins in Westside and Zudio, and aggressive store expansion that has taken its portfolio to over 1,000 large-format stores across 251 cities.

She added that Zudio remains the key growth engine, supported by value fashion demand, while Westside continues to maintain a strong margin profile and differentiated product mix. The launch of new formats like Burnt Toast and steady improvement in the Star hypermarket business signal Trent’s ability to innovate and scale multiple retail concepts.

However, short-term headwinds—slowing LFL (like–for–like) growth, margin moderation (EBIT margin dipping from 11% to 10.2%), unseasonal weather, weak discretionary sentiment, and higher competition—are weighing on sentiment. Store cannibalisation risks in densely penetrated markets also remain a watch point.

"From a long-term perspective, Trent’s brand strength, disciplined execution, improving private-label mix, strong balance sheet, and leadership position in value fashion offer a compelling runway for growth," said Srivastava.

"The correction provides an opportunity for gradual, staggered value buying for investors with a three to five-year horizon, but near-term volatility should be expected. For conservative investors, waiting for margins to stabilise and LFL trends to improve before taking fresh exposure may be prudent," said Srivastava.

Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura, pointed out that Trent’s growth momentum has been gradually moderating. From FY22 to FY25, the company’s revenue grew at a robust CAGR of 56%, with YoY growth of 83% in FY23, 50% in FY24, and 38% in FY25. However, growth began to slow down in FY26, with YoY growth of just 19% in Q1FY26 and 16% in Q2FY26.

Bolinjkar said this deceleration is becoming more apparent across Trent’s various formats. The management highlighted that weaker consumer sentiment and unseasonal rains have dampened demand, contributing to the decline in revenue growth.

Additionally, Bolinjkar believes that competition from other organised retail players like V2 Retail, V-Mart, Baazar Style Retail, Vishal Megamart, Aditya Birla, etc, is also putting pressure on Trent’s revenue growth.

Despite a slight improvement in operating profitability, driven by investments in technology and automation, absolute EBITDA growth has been constrained by the revenue slowdown.

Bolinjkar pointed out that this moderation in growth has led to a significant drop in the company’s valuation, with the trailing-twelve-month P/E ratio falling from a premium 150 times in FY25 to its current 87 times.

"While Trent is focusing on expanding into new micro markets to boost revenues and restore growth, we believe this strategy may lower same-store sales growth (SSSG) and impact overall profitability," said Bolinjkar.

"At current levels, Trent could present a potential value buy. However, accelerating revenue growth is crucial for the stock’s future performance. We recommend accumulating the stock in tranches rather than making a one-time buy," said Bolinjkar.

Technical experts appear cautious about the stock.

Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, pointed out that Trent has broken below a key support zone at ₹4,355, which corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the COVID low of ₹365 to the October 2024 peak of ₹8,322.

This breakdown indicates weakening momentum and suggests that the stock may enter a deeper corrective phase.

"Based on Fibonacci levels, the next meaningful support is placed near the 61.8% retracement at ₹3,413, which now becomes a probable downside target. Unless Trent reclaims its lost support zone with strong volume, the overall structure remains vulnerable," said Patel.

"Given this technical setup, it is prudent for traders and investors to avoid fresh positions until clearer signs of stability or reversal emerge," Patel said.

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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.