HDFC Securities remains positive about the cement sector as the domestic brokerage expects the margin to further recover in the first quarter of current fiscal FY24 onwards, driven by further fuel cost cool-off and rebound in cement prices.
“We expect the margin to rebound by ₹170/40 per metric tonnes (MT) Year-on-Year (YoY) in FY24/25, respectively, to ₹1,000/1,040 per MT,” the brokerage said in a research note.
Looking at current fuel trends, the brokerage believes input cost will cool off by ₹100-150 per MT QoQ in Q1FY24.
"We trim our industry unitary EBITDA estimates for FY23/24/25E by ₹10-20 per MT each on sub-par cement price increases," the note stated.
The brokerage expects strong volume offtake by UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp, JK Lakshmi and Star Cement QoQ. It expects volume decline QoQ by ACC and Ambuja (Himachal plant shutdown).
UltraTech Cement, Dalmia Bharat, and JK Lakshmi stocks are among the brokerage's top picks in the cement sector.
HDFC Securities maintains 'Buy' call on UltraTech, ACC, Dalmia Bharat, Nuvoco Vistas, Birla Corp, JK Lakshmi, and Orient Cements.
It maintains 'Add' ratings on Ambuja Cement, Ramco Cements, Star Cement, Sagar Cements Deccan Cement, and 'Reduce' ratings on Shree Cement, Heidelberg Cement and JK Cement.
The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.
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