UltraTech Cement share price extends gains after strong Q4 results. Should you buy, sell or hold the cement stock?

UltraTech Cement share price gained over 2% on Tuesday after the Aditya Birla Group’s flagship cement maker reported its Q4 results. UltraTech Cement shares rose as much as 2.38% to ₹10,200 apiece on the BSE.

UltraTech Cement Q4 results were announced on Monday and the stock had ended 2.7% higher during the session. The country’s largest cement manufacturer reported strong earnings for January-March quarter as its consolidated net profit rose 36% to ₹2,258 crore from ₹1,666 crore year-on-year (YoY), beating estimates, led by a decline in fuel costs and double-digit volume growth.

The company’s consolidated revenue from operations in Q4FY24 increased 9.4% YoY to ₹20,419 crore.

At the operating level, EBITDA was at ₹4,250 crore, with a margin of 20.81%. 

“The company’s imported fuel consumption cost during Q4FY24 was 13% lower than Q4FY23, and it remained flat QoQ. Effective capacity utilization was 98% during the quarter and 85% for the full year,” UltraTech said in a statement.

Read here: UltraTech's Q4 net profit rises 36% y-o-y on lower fuel costs; beats estimates

Going forward, the demand for cement across all sectors continues to remain robust, which augurs well for the company, it added.

Here’s what brokerages have to say on UltraTech Cement Q4 results and UltraTech Cement share price:

Centrum Broking

UltraTech Cement reported an extremely good set of results as reported EBITDA came in 11% ahead of estimates. Contrary to some of the other peer companies which have reported numbers as of now, Ultratech’s EBITDA/mt was flat on QoQ basis compared to our estimate of ₹150/mt drop. Better than expected blended realizations (owing to higher RMC revenue) and improved costs resulted in an earnings beat, Centrum Broking said.

It believes Ultratech Cement is likely to strengthen its numero uno position through better market share and industry leading profitability. 

The brokerage maintained an ‘Add’ rating on the stock and raised UltraTech Cement share price target to ₹11,200 from ₹10,550 earlier.

Emkay Global Financial Services

UtraTech Cement reported better than expected operational performance in Q4FY24, with consolidated EBITDA increasing 24% YoY and 26% QoQ. UltraTech has reiterated reaching ~184 mt domestic grey-cement capacity by FY27E (excluding Kesoram Industries) which would enable it to post industry-leading volume growth over the next few years, Emkay Global Financial Services said.

Building-in lower realization, Emkay Global cuts its FY25 EBITDA estimates by 4%, though it raises FY26E EBITDA by 3% as it integrates Kesoram financials. The brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock with unchanged target price of ₹11,200 per share.

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Antique Stock Broking

UltraTech Cement surprised the street by reporting an EBITDA/ton of ₹1,173 (broadly flat QoQ and up 12% YoY) despite cement prices declining ~6% QoQ and 4% YoY aided by better operating leverage and higher other operating income. The company also reported solid 30% QoQ and 11% YoY volume growth (98% utilization). This aided the company in reporting an alltime high quarterly EBITDA. UTCEM has delivered, despite its large size, ~11% volume CAGR over FY21–24 vs. the industry average of ~8% and management expects a similar trend to continue. UTCEM remains on track for 200 mtpa cement capacity (incl. Kesoram) by FY27 (11% CAGR). 

Antique Stock Broking believes robust organic growth plans and inorganic optionality may help UltraTech Cement report industry-leading volume growth. Besides, the company is also targeting to reduce its operating costs by ₹200–300/ton (ex-lower fuel costs) led by higher blending ratio, increasing share of green energy and AFR, lower lead distance, and operating leverage, it said.

The brokerage broadly maintains its FY25–26E EBITDA estimates and a ‘Buy’ call with an unchanged target price of ₹11,325 per share.

Kotak Institutional Equities

UltraTech Cement 4QFY24 EBITDA came in 8% above Kotak Equities’ estimates, led by lower costs, mainly due to operating leverage. Volume growth, at 11% YoY, suggests outperformance to peers and continued market share gains during the quarter. Expect muted energy costs, rise in green power and operating leverage to aid margin expansion over the medium term, said the brokerage firm. 

It has increased EBITDA estimates by 0.8% and 2.3% for FY2025 and FY26E, led by lower costs and higher volumes. It expects UltraTech Cement to continue to outperform peers on operational parameters and is best placed with superior growth visibility and execution. 

Kotak Equities maintained ‘Sell’ rating on rich valuations and raised UltraTech Cement share price target to ₹7,200 from ₹7,000 earlier.

At 9:25 am, UltraTech Cement shares were trading 0.82% higher at ₹10,044.20 apiece on the BSE.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.