US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech impact on Indian stock market, gold-silver rates | Prediction for Monday

Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech: After the US Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday, speculations for the US Fed rate hike skyrocketed. Market observers are now expecting an interest rate hike at the US Fed meeting in September 2026. Bets for a 25 bps interest rate hike received a boost when the US Fed chair said the US central bank will "have work to do" if policymakers are not confident that underlying inflation is returning to its 2% target. So, the Indian stock market, gold and silver rates, and other assets are expected to react to Kevin Warsh's speech on Monday.

Buzz for US Fed rate hike

According to Reuters, after Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, bets that rates would be raised at the September meeting rose to a 55.7% probability from 35.4% on Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. This has fueled speculation about a US Fed rate hike at the next US Fed meeting scheduled for September 2026.

Kevin Warsh's speech | Impact on the Indian stock market

Decoding the US Fed chair Kevin Warsh's speech, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech will put pressure on the global equities, including the Indian stock market. So, we are expecting a flat-to-negative start for the Indian stock market on Monday. The key benchmark indices — Nifty 50, Sensex and the Bank Nifty — may try to test their current support in the near term.”

Speaking on the impact of Kevin Warsh's speech on the global markets, Philip Straehl, Chief Investment Officer at Morningstar Wealth, told Reuters that smaller companies and technology stocks are more sensitive to rising interest rates.

Unveiling the strategy for the Indian stock market investors, Osho Krishan, Chief Manager — Technical & Derivative Research at Angel One, said, “Investors should refrain from taking aggressive bets and instead focus on selective opportunities within the broader market. Thematic and sector-specific movers are likely to offer relatively better performance amid the prevailing market environment.”

Kevin Warsh's speech | Impact on gold-silver rates

Expecting the selling pressure on gold and silver rates to continue on Monday, Anuj Gupta said, “Kevin Warsh's speech has fueled speculation for a 25 BPS US Fed rate hike in its September meeting. This led to a sharp rise in short-term US bonds and the US dollar, putting pressure on other assets such as gold, silver, bitcoin, and equities.”

The SEBI-registered market expert suggested that investors gauge their levels using equities, gold, silver, bitcoin, and other assets, such as bonds and currencies, as these assets are expected to trade with high volatility on Monday.

Sensex to Nifty 50: Key levels you must know

Sharing the technical outlook for the BSE Sensex today, Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, said the 30-stock index remains sideways to mildly positive, as the index continues to hold above the rising trendline and is attempting to stabilise around the 50-Day EMA, but it is still trading below the 200-Day EMA, which remains a key hurdle near 78,484.

“Sustained trading above 77,680–78,000 could strengthen the recovery and open the way for further upside, while a break below 76,800 would weaken the structure and increase selling pressure,” said Hitesh Tailor of Choice Broking.

On the outlook of the Nifty 50 today, Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said, “The underlying trend of Nifty remains range-bound (24,400-24,000) with positive bias. Any sustainable bounce from near the lower range could trigger a sizable move towards the 24,300-24,400 levels in the near term. Important supports for trend reversal are placed at 24,000.”

Speaking on the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said, “The immediate support is placed at 57,200, followed by 57,100, marking the recent range low. On the upside, 57,800 remains the key resistance, followed by 57,900. A sustained close above this zone would revive the bullish setup, while a break below support could extend the weekly pullback.”

Outlook for gold rate today

Sharing the outlook for gold price today, Anuj Gupta said, “The outlook for gold rate today is flat-to-negative. The COMEX gold rate has immediate support at $4,450, followed by $4,380. On the upper side, the precious metal is facing resistance in the international market at $4550 and $4620 per ounce levels.”

On the outlook for the MCX gold rate today, Anuj Gupta said, “The MCX gold rate has immediate support placed at ₹1,52,000 and ₹1,48,000, whereas the precious metal is facing resistance at ₹1,58,000 and ₹1,62,000 per 10 gm.”

Outlook for the silver rate today

Sharing the outlook for silver prices today, SEBI-registered expert Anuj Gupta said that the COMEX silver rate has support at $64/oz and $62/oz, while it faces resistance at $69/oz and $71/oz.

“MCX gold rate today has immediate support placed at ₹2,37,000 per kg and ₹2,33,000 per kg, while the precious white metal has resistances at ₹2,48,000 per kg and ₹2,53,000 per kg levels,” said Anuj Gupta.

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